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Hurricane Earl Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT21 KNHC 070254
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062022
0300 UTC WED SEP 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N  65.8W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  20SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N  65.8W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N  65.8W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.8N  65.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.3N  65.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 29.1N  65.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 31.1N  63.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.7N  61.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 37.0N  57.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 190SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 42.9N  47.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 44.9N  40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N  65.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 07/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/PASCH




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