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Hurricane Earl Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT21 KNHC 082054
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062022
2100 UTC THU SEP 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE THIS EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N  64.4W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  961 MB
EYE DIAMETER  50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 120SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N  64.4W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N  64.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 32.1N  62.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 35.2N  59.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  70SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE  90SW  70NW.
34 KT...190NE 210SE 180SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 39.2N  55.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  80SE  70SW  50NW.
50 KT...110NE 130SE 100SW  80NW.
34 KT...240NE 280SE 230SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 42.6N  51.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE  90SW 110NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 44.0N  50.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...260NE 250SE 250SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.0N  49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 185SE 220SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 45.8N  47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 46.0N  41.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N  64.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN




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