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Hurricane Earl Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT21 KNHC 080849
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062022
0900 UTC THU SEP 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE THIS EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N  65.4W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  35SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N  65.4W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N  65.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 29.6N  64.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 32.0N  63.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  45SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 140SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 35.1N  59.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE  90SW  70NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 180SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 39.1N  55.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.
50 KT...110NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...230NE 260SE 230SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 42.4N  51.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW 110NW.
34 KT...240NE 290SE 260SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 44.3N  49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...250NE 230SE 230SW 250NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 45.4N  47.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 46.7N  41.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N  65.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 08/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




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