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Hurricane Danielle Forecast Discussion


929 
WTNT45 KNHC 030249
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
300 AM GMT Sat Sep 03 2022

Danielle's satellite presentation has degraded further this 
evening, highlighted by a loss of the eye.  Dvorak T-numbers have 
decreased from TAFB and SAB since earlier today, but their 
respective Current Intensity numbers remain 4.0 and 4.5.  
Therefore, the initial intensity is being held at 65 kt.

Danielle has been stationary for the past 6-12 hours while it 
remains in a weak steering environment to the south of a blocking 
high over the North Atlantic.  This pattern is expected to hold 
firm for the next few days, with the hurricane forecast to meander 
through about day 3.  After that time, a deep-layer trough moving 
off the coast of Atlantic Canada and the northeastern U.S. should 
finally shove Danielle on an accelerating path toward the northeast 
on days 4 and 5.  During the acceleration phase, the updated NHC 
track forecast is a little north of the previous forecast and lies 
close to the HCCA, TVCN, and FSSE multi-model consensus aids.

Danielle's convective and organizational struggles during the past 
few hours could be due to upwelling of cooler waters.  While 
vertical shear is expected to be generally low 3 days or so, the 
hurricane's slow motion is likely to continue to upwell cooler 
waters, and therefore only slight strengthening is anticipated 
during that time.  Danielle is expected to move over colder waters 
after day 3, which should induce some weakening toward the end of 
the forecast period.  Global models also suggest that the 
cyclone could be undergoing extratropical transition by the end 
of the forecast period.  The updated NHC intensity forecast is very 
similar to the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 37.9N  43.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 38.0N  43.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 37.9N  44.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 38.1N  44.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 38.7N  44.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  05/1200Z 39.4N  44.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 40.2N  43.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 42.1N  41.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 45.5N  36.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg




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