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Hurricane Danielle Forecast Discussion

WTNT45 KNHC 080234

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
300 AM GMT Thu Sep 08 2022

Danielle is beginning to feel the effects of an approaching mid-to 
upper-level trough just to its west. There has been some erosion of 
the deep convection over the southern portion of the circulation, 
likely due to increasing southwesterly shear, while the eye has 
filled with cloud cover. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates have 
overall lowered since the previous advisory, and a blend of these 
values suggest the cyclone's initial intensity has decreased to 65 

The cyclone is expected to undergo extratropical transition through 
Thursday morning due to the higher shear, interaction with the 
trough, and sharply cooler SSTs along its forecast track. These 
conditions are also expected to cause Danielle to gradually weaken. 
The latest NHC intensity forecast was tweaked slightly lower than 
the previous one, and closely follows the various multi-model 
consensus values. 

Danielle is moving northeastward at 15 kt, and this general motion 
should continue through tonight. A slow down and counterclockwise 
loop is expected to occur on Thursday and Friday when the cyclone 
interacts with the trough that is expected to cut off. After that 
time, a faster motion to the southeast is forecast, which should 
take the extratropical cyclone toward western Europe by the end of 
the period. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the 
previous one, and is near the latest consensus aids.

Danielle continues to produce a large area of very rough seas over
the central-north Atlantic.  More information can be found in the
High Seas Forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at The UK Met Office also has
information in High Seas Forecasts for the west Central and east
Central sections issued under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web


INIT  08/0300Z 45.6N  32.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 47.2N  30.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 49.3N  30.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  09/1200Z 50.0N  32.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/0000Z 48.6N  32.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  10/1200Z 45.8N  28.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/0000Z 44.0N  24.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/0000Z 41.6N  15.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  13/0000Z 42.9N   9.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

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