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Hurricane Danielle Forecast Discussion


695 
WTNT45 KNHC 072034
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
900 PM GMT Wed Sep 07 2022

Danielle has generally changed little since this morning and it
remains an impressive hurricane for being at a relatively
high latitude of around 45 N. The system continues to have a
large eye with a fairly symmetric convective pattern surrounding it.
The Dvorak estimates at 18Z range from 65 to 77 kt, and on this
basis, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt.

A mid-to upper-level trough is quickly approaching Danielle, and
it should cause an increase in shear soon. The higher shear,
interaction with the trough, and sharply cooler SSTs along the
predicted track should cause Danielle to complete extratropical
transition on Thursday and cause the cyclone to gradually decay.
The intensity models are in good agreement, and the NHC intensity
forecast is just an update of the previous one.

Danielle is moving northeastward at 14 kt, which is the fastest this 
system has moved in quite some time. This general motion should 
continue through tonight, however, a slow down and counterclockwise 
loop is expected to occur on Thursday and Friday when Danielle 
interacts with the trough that is expected to cut off. After that 
time, a faster motion to the southeast is forecast, which should 
take the extratropical cyclone toward western Europe by the end of 
the period. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the 
previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids.

Danielle continues to produce a large area of very rough seas over
the central-north Atlantic.  More information can be found in the
High Seas Forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has
information in High Seas Forecasts for the west Central and east
Central sections issued under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web
at metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 44.9N  34.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 46.4N  32.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 48.7N  31.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  09/0600Z 50.4N  31.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  09/1800Z 49.7N  33.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  10/0600Z 47.3N  31.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/1800Z 45.3N  27.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  11/1800Z 42.1N  17.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  12/1800Z 42.3N  10.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




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