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Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Light and variable wind becoming west 8 to 13 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.
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Invest 99L- Deactivated
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Post new topic   Reply to topic    Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather Forum Index -> 2017 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Discussion
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ccstorms
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Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 11:51 am    Post subject: Invest 99L- Deactivated Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and on
Hurricane Lee, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. An area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low
pressure is located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This
system is forecast to move slowly north-northwestward across Cuba
and the Straits for Florida during the next day or so. Some
development of this system is possible when it moves near the
Florida peninsula or the northwestern Bahamas on Friday or Saturday
before upper-level winds become less favorable early next week.
Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce locally
heavy rainfall over portions of Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida
Keys, and the Bahamas during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brown






Last edited by ccstorms on Sun Oct 01, 2017 11:59 am; edited 10 times in total
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 7:14 pm    Post subject: Re: Invest 99L- Deactivated Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and
on Hurricane Lee, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. An area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low
pressure is located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This
system is forecast to move slowly north-northwestward across Cuba
and the Straits of Florida during the next day or so. Some
development of this system is possible when it moves near the
Florida peninsula or the northwestern Bahamas on Friday or Saturday
before upper-level winds become less favorable early next week.
Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce locally
heavy rainfall over portions of Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida
Keys, and the Bahamas during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 4:37 am    Post subject: Re: Invest 99L- Deactivated Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located a few hundred miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras,
North Carolina, and on Hurricane Lee, located over the central
Atlantic Ocean.

1. A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the
northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba to the Bahamas is associated
with a surface trough interacting with an upper-level low. An area
of low pressure is likely to form from this weather system while it
moves northward across Cuba and near the east coast of the Florida
peninsula during the next few days, and environmental conditions
appear conducive for development before upper-level winds become
less favorable early next week. Regardless of development, this
system is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of
Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Berg


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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:19 am    Post subject: Re: Invest 99L- Deactivated Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Maria, located a few hundred miles east-northeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Hurricane Lee, located over the
central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of Bermuda.

1. A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the
northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba to the Bahamas is associated
with a broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level low. A
weak area of low pressure is likely to form from this weather system
while it moves northward across Cuba and near the east coast of
the Florida peninsula during the next few days, and environmental
conditions appear conducive for development before upper-level winds
become less favorable early next week. Regardless of development,
this system is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall over
portions of Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the
Bahamas during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 9:02 am    Post subject: Re: Invest 99L- Deactivated Reply with quote



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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 11:48 am    Post subject: Re: Invest 99L- Deactivated Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Maria, located a few hundred miles east-northeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Hurricane Lee, located over the
central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of Bermuda.

A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the Cayman
Islands northward across Cuba to the Florida Straits is associated
with a broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level low. A
weak area of low pressure is likely to form from this weather system
while it moves northward across the Florida Straits to near the east
coast of the Florida peninsula during the next few days, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for development before
upper-level winds become less favorable early next week. Regardless
of development, this system is likely to produce locally heavy
rainfall over portions of central and western Cuba, the Florida
Keys, the Florida peninsula, and the northwestern Bahamas during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 12:00 pm    Post subject: Re: Invest 99L- Deactivated Reply with quote

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0935 AM EDT THU 28 SEPTEMBER 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-119

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 30/1800Z NEAR 29.7N 80.3W.
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 1:14 pm    Post subject: Re: Invest 99L- Deactivated Reply with quote

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
218 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017

...Increasing Rain Chances Friday And Into The Upcoming Weekend...
...Hazardous Boating Conditions Developing On The Gulf Late In The
Weekend...

.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Friday)...
Rain chances will be on the increase through the short term
period. Model solutions continuing to vary with regards to
the evolution of an area of low pressure which is forecast
to develop offshore the Florida east coast later tonight
and Friday, thus confidence in any one model solution
remains low at this time. For tonight a mid level trough and
upper level low will remain in place over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. Models move the upper low very slowly west-
southwest over the Gulf through Friday night with the
forecast area coming under the ascending eastern side of it
with a divergent flow aloft developing across the forecast
area. At the same time models show a weak area of low
pressure trying to develop some where along the southeast
Florida coast later tonight with this low then lifting
northeastward to be offshore the Florida east coast during
Friday and Friday night.

Deep tropical moisture (PW`s 2+ inches) now located across
the northwest Caribbean and south of Cuba associated with
a trough of low pressure/tropical disturbance will advect
north into the region on a east-southeast wind flow later
tonight through the day on Friday as the above mentioned low
develops and moves northeast. This increasing moisture will
lead to increasing cloud cover and rain chances across the
forecast area on Friday (Pops 20 to 60 percent from north to
south), especially south of the I-4 corridor where the
greatest coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms is
expected, along with the possibility of some locally heavy
downpours possible.

Given the ongoing flooding along the Withlacoochee river at
Trilby, Croom, and Holder, and along the Peace River at
Bartow and Arcadia any heavy rain that falls over these
basin will only exacerbate ongoing flooding problems, so all
residents in these areas should closely monitor water
levels and stay tuned to the latest forecast.

Temperatures tonight will remain above normal with lows in
the lower to mid 70s. On Friday daytime highs will still
run above normal but will be slightly lower than today given
the expected increase in clouds and rain chances with highs
topping out in the upper 80s in most locations.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night - Thursday)...
A broad mid/upper-level low will linger around the region
through the end of the weekend and then drift southwestward
as a strong area of high pressure builds into the southeast.
There is a fair amount of uncertainty as far as surface
features for the weekend. The broad area of low pressure
currently near Cuba is forecast to move northward toward the
state, but the evolution remains unclear. The GFS spins up
a low just east of the state over the Gulf Stream while the
ECMWF keeps more of a broad trough over the region. Either
way, this should lead to more rainfall for this weekend and
so rain chances are higher.

Strong surface high pressure centered to our north for the
rest of the week will keep an easterly wind flow in place
and promote scattered showers and thunderstorms moving
westward each day. The rather robust easterly flow will also
lead to increased seas through this time period, so mariners
will need to be extra aware if planning any trips into the
Gulf.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 1:29 pm    Post subject: Re: Invest 99L- Deactivated Reply with quote

Invest 99L
23.3N, 79.6W, Winds 20 Kts, Pressure 1012 MB.



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PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 4:45 pm    Post subject: Re: Invest 99L- Deactivated Reply with quote





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