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Tonight

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. East northeast wind 3 to 8 mph.
Partly Cloudy

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Thursday: Isolated showers after 2pm.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 20%.
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then Isolated
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Lo 75 °FHi 91 °F
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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Katia
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Katia

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather Forum Index -> 2017 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Discussion
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12893
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:23 pm    Post subject: Katia Reply with quote

NHC

A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers activity and gusty winds.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for slow
development, and this system could become a tropical depression
during the next couple of days while it meanders over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12893
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:17 am    Post subject: Re: Katia Reply with quote

NHC

A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized shower activity and a few
squalls. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for
development, and this system could become a tropical depression
during the next couple of days while it meanders over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains
associated with this disturbance are likely over portions of eastern
Mexico during the remainder of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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chris
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Joined: Jun 08, 2005
Posts: 3340
Location: Cape Coral, Florida

PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:12 am    Post subject: Re: Katia Reply with quote

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 96.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

A tropical storm watch could be required for portions of the Mexican
state of Veracruz later today.



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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12893
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:21 pm    Post subject: Re: Katia Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Katia Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
700 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017

...KATIA MOVING LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 94.9W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12893
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:37 am    Post subject: Re: Katia Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Katia Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017

...KATIA EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 94.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12893
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:38 am    Post subject: Re: Katia Reply with quote

Hurricane Katia Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that the central
pressure had dropped to 982 mb and maximum SFMR-observed surface
winds were close to 70 kt. Therefore 70 kt will be retained for the
current intensity. Vertical wind shear should remain low over the
southwest Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days and the global
models show well-developed upper-level outflow over the tropical
cyclone. Thus, further strengthening is likely up to landfall. The
official intensity forecast is somewhat higher than the model
consensus and Katia could approach major hurricane status before it
crosses that coast.

Fixes from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft show essentially no motion
over the last several hours. A mid-level ridge is likely to build
to the north of Katia during the next day or so. This should
induce a west-southwestward motion beginning tonight or early
Friday, leading to landfall by late Friday or early Saturday. The
official track forecast is similar to the previous one and close to
the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 21.6N 94.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 21.4N 95.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 21.2N 95.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 20.7N 96.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 19.9N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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