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Lee County Forecast
This
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This Afternoon: Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. West wind around 8 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Scattered
T-storms
Tonight

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 8pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Southeast wind 3 to 6 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Scattered
T-storms then
Partly Cloudy
Hi 88 °FLo 77 °F
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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Matthew
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Matthew
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This forum is locked: you cannot post, reply to, or edit topics.   This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies.    Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather Forum Index -> 2016 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12401
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:11 am    Post subject: Matthew Reply with quote



TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0506 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972016) 20160925 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
160925 0600 160925 1800 160926 0600 160926 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 7.5N 34.9W 7.9N 37.0W 8.5N 39.2W 9.2N 41.4W
BAMD 7.5N 34.9W 7.8N 37.4W 8.2N 39.8W 8.6N 42.1W
BAMM 7.5N 34.9W 7.9N 37.4W 8.4N 39.8W 8.9N 42.1W
LBAR 7.5N 34.9W 7.8N 37.5W 8.1N 40.2W 8.6N 42.9W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 29KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 29KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
160927 0600 160928 0600 160929 0600 160930 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.1N 43.8W 11.5N 49.3W 12.6N 56.0W 13.7N 61.2W
BAMD 9.0N 44.4W 9.5N 49.4W 9.1N 54.6W 8.4N 58.3W
BAMM 9.5N 44.5W 10.7N 49.6W 11.1N 54.9W 11.0N 58.7W
LBAR 9.3N 45.5W 10.6N 51.5W 11.5N 56.1W 10.5N 60.1W
SHIP 51KTS 80KTS 102KTS 118KTS
DSHP 51KTS 80KTS 102KTS 118KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 7.5N LONCUR = 34.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 7.5N LONM12 = 32.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 7.5N LONM24 = 30.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Last edited by ccstorms on Thu Sep 29, 2016 3:25 pm; edited 3 times in total
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12401
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:13 am    Post subject: Re: Matthew Reply with quote

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located east-northeast of Bermuda, and has issued the
last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Lisa, located over the
eastern tropical Atlantic.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has developed in association with
a tropical wave and a low pressure system located several hundred
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This disturbance is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean at 15 to 20 mph for the next several days.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development as the system, and a tropical depression could form
while the system approaches the Lesser Antilles by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Stewart


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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12401
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sun Sep 25, 2016 12:15 pm    Post subject: Re: Matthew Reply with quote

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Storm Karl, located several hundred miles south-
southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area about
1500 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands are showing some
signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this week while the low moves westward to west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Windward Islands,
the southeastern and south-central Caribbean Sea, as well as the
northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12401
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sun Sep 25, 2016 12:17 pm    Post subject: Re: Matthew Reply with quote

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Weatherman911
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Joined: Jul 11, 2006
Posts: 2660
Location: Cape Coral, FL

PostPosted: Sun Sep 25, 2016 6:57 pm    Post subject: Re: Matthew Reply with quote

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure area located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands has changed little in organization since earlier today. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while the low moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Windward Islands, the southeastern and south-central Caribbean Sea, as well as the northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$ Forecaster Pasch








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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12401
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:47 am    Post subject: Re: Matthew Reply with quote

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a large low
pressure area located about 1150 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands has increased and become a little better organized
since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this week while the low moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Windward
Islands, the southeastern and south-central Caribbean Sea, as well
as the northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Stewart


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chris
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Joined: Jun 08, 2005
Posts: 3319
Location: Cape Coral, Florida

PostPosted: Mon Sep 26, 2016 10:14 am    Post subject: Re: Matthew Reply with quote

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ccstorms
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12401
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Mon Sep 26, 2016 12:29 pm    Post subject: Re: Matthew Reply with quote

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure pressure located about 950 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands have increased and become slightly better
organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions remain
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next day or two while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast of South
America, should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, heavy rains and strong gusty winds, possibly to
tropical storm force, are expected to spread over the Windward
Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles beginning
late Tuesday or Wednesday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this disturbance on Tuesday afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

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Weatherman911
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Joined: Jul 11, 2006
Posts: 2660
Location: Cape Coral, FL

PostPosted: Mon Sep 26, 2016 9:00 pm    Post subject: Re: Matthew Reply with quote

NHC, Invest 97L

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 700 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves westward to west-northwestward near 20 mph.

⚠️⚠️ Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty winds, possibly to tropical storm force, are expected to spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance on Tuesday afternoon.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Some shower activity continues in association with the remnants of Lisa, located about 600 miles southwest of the Azores. This system is expected to merge with a cold front on Tuesday before regeneration into a tropical cyclone can occur. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure that is drifting westward. Upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$ Forecaster Pasch














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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12401
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:04 am    Post subject: Re: Matthew Reply with quote

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 600 miles east-southeast of the Windward
Islands continue to show signs of organization, and a tropical
cyclone could be forming. If this trend continues, then a tropical
depression or a tropical storm would likely form later today while
the system moves west-northwestward to westward at about 20 mph.
Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the
northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this
system, and watches or warnings could be required at any time.
Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty winds,
possibly to tropical storm force, are expected to spread over the
Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles
beginning tonight and continuing into Wednesday. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent


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