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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Ophelia- Final Advisory
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Ophelia- Final Advisory
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13090
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:05 am    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Fri Oct 13 2017

...OPHELIA MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 33.9W
ABOUT 615 MI...995 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the
Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center. Interests in Ireland
should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the
United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 33.9 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through
Saturday. A turn toward the northeast with an additional increase
in forward speed is expected Saturday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Ophelia will pass near or to the southeast of
the southeastern Azores Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slight weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over the southeastern Azores Saturday and Saturday
night. During the same time, a cold front and moisture associated
with Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to
3 inches over the other islands of the Azores. This rainfall could
produce flooding, especially over the southeastern Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:08 am    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Fri Oct 13 2017

Ophelia's eye has become cloud filled during the past several hours,
and an 0330 UTC GCOM microwave pass indicated that the hurricane
only had about half an eyewall, with nearly all of the deep
convection located over the eastern part of the circulation.
However, the initial intensity remains 90 kt based on Dvorak CI
numbers of 5.0 from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion estimate is a little faster toward the
east-northeast, or 070/7 kt, with Ophelia embedded in the flow ahead
of a large mid-latitude trough pushing east of Atlantic Canada. As
this trough swings eastward over the north Atlantic, Ophelia is
expected to continue accelerating and turn northeastward by day 3
and north-northeastward by day 4. There is high confidence in
the track forecast for the first 48 hours while Ophelia remains a
tropical cyclone. Although there is some model divergence after 48
hours once Ophelia becomes extratropical, the global models remain
relatively tightly clustered through day 4, and they all agree that
Ophelia will track very close to the western shores of the British
Isles on days 3 and 4. As such, very little change was made to the
NHC official forecast compared with the previous advisory. There
is significantly more spread in Ophelia's track by day 5, with the
GFS moving Ophelia over the North Sea while the ECMWF and UKMET
turn the cyclone eastward over Norway. However, NHC's graphical
product suite cannot handle forecast points east of the Prime
Meridian, so the official forecast now cuts off after day 4.

Vertical shear over Ophelia may decrease a bit over the next 24
hours, and the hurricane will remain over marginally warm waters
for the next day or two. Hence, only slight weakening is
anticipated through 48 hours, and Ophelia is forecast to remain a
tropical cyclone during that period. Ophelia is then expected to
merge with an approaching cold front and develop into a warm
seclusion by day 3 to the southwest of Ireland, with baroclinic
forcing likely helping to maintain the cyclone's intensity for
about a day. Some weakening is anticipated after day 3 while
Ophelia moves near the British Isles, but strong winds are becoming
increasingly likely over portions of Ireland and United Kingdom
regardless of the cyclone's exact intensity.

While the NHC track continues to keep the center of Ophelia south
and east of the Azores, tropical-storm-force winds are possible
throughout the Azores by Saturday night due to an approaching
front. In addition, the wind field of Ophelia will likely expand as
the cyclone begins extratropical transition, and any deviation to
the left of the forecast track could bring stronger winds to the
islands. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by
the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-
tropical cyclone by Monday before it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some
direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas,
as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast
uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts. Residents in
Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of
Ophelia for the next several days. For more information on local
impacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met
Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to
products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 31.1N 33.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 31.8N 32.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 33.1N 29.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 35.0N 25.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 37.9N 20.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 47.9N 13.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 17/0600Z 57.5N 6.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 18/0600Z...EAST OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Posts: 13090
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:11 pm    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 13 2017

...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 32.9W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the
Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 32.9 West. Ophelia is moving
toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Saturday with an increase in forward
speed. A faster northeastward motion is forecast to begin Saturday
night and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ophelia will pass near or southeast of the southeastern
Azores late Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
beginning late Saturday or Saturday night due to an approaching
cold front.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over the southeastern Azores through Saturday
night. During the same time, a cold front and moisture associated
with Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to
3 inches over the other islands of the Azores. This rainfall could
produce flooding, especially over the southeastern Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13090
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:13 pm    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 13 2017

The eye of Ophelia has become a bit more apparent in visible and
infrared imagery during the past couple of hours, but the cloud tops
around the eye have also warmed recently. The initial intensity is
set to 85 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective
Dvorak CI and Final-T numbers. The hurricane will remain in an
environment of marginal SSTs and light to moderate shear for the
next day or so, which suggests little change in intensity during
that time. By 36 hours, the shear will begin to increase as a
powerful upper-level trough approaches from the west, but Ophelia
should remain at hurricane force during extratropical transition as
it undergoes a favorable interaction with the aforementioned trough
and takes on a warm seclusion structure. The transition process
is expected to be complete by 72 hours, and post-tropical Ophelia
should gradually weaken as the cyclone occludes beneath the upper
trough. The low-level circulation of Ophelia is expected to
dissipate over Scandinavia by day 5.

The initial motion estimate is 060/10. The track forecast reasoning
remains unchanged from the previous advisory. Ophelia should move
east-northeastward ahead of the approaching upper-level trough with
a steady increase in forward speed through the next 24 hours. The
hurricane should turn northeastward by 48 hours followed by a
north-northeastward motion at days 3 and 4. The track model guidance
is in good agreement on this overall scenario, but there are some
differences in forward speed beyond 48 hours. The new NHC track
is similar to the previous one and lies between the latest TVCA
multi-model consensus and the HCCA corrected consensus aid through
the forecast period. On this track, the center of Ophelia is
expected to move southeast of the Azores during the next 36 hours
and then move near or over Ireland and the western part of the UK in
3 to 4 days. Given the expected increase in the size of Ophelia's
wind field during extratropical transition, impacts from strong
winds and rain are becoming increasingly likely over portions of the
British Isles regardless of the exact track of the center.

While the NHC track continues to keep the center of Ophelia south
and east of the Azores, tropical-storm-force winds are possible
throughout the Azores beginning late Saturday or Saturday night due
to an approaching cold front. Any deviation to the left of the
forecast track could bring stronger winds to the islands. Interests
in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather
Forecast and Watch Center.

A 1242 UTC ASCAT-B pass was helpful in analyzing the 34-kt wind
radii around Ophelia.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane-force post-tropical
cyclone by Monday before it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of
these areas are becoming more likely, along with dangerous marine
conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location
of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should
refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United
Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 31.8N 32.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 32.6N 30.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 34.1N 27.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 36.5N 22.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 40.7N 17.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 51.0N 11.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 17/1200Z 60.0N 4.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13090
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:12 pm    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Fri Oct 13 2017

...OPHELIA MAINTAINING STRENGTH WHILE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 31.8W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the
Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 31.8 West. Ophelia is moving
toward the east-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A continued
east-northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast
through Saturday evening. A turn toward the northeast is expected
on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will pass
near or southeast of the southeastern Azores by early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours and Ophelia is expected to remain a powerful cyclone for the
next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
beginning late Saturday or Saturday night due to an approaching
cold front.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over the southeastern Azores through Saturday
night. During the same time, a cold front and moisture associated
with Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to
3 inches over the other islands of the Azores. This rainfall could
produce flooding, especially over the southeastern Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:14 pm    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Fri Oct 13 2017

Ophelia's eye has become better defined over the past 6 hours.
Although cloud tops near the inner core of the hurricane are warmer
than 24 hours ago, a ring of -50 deg C or colder cloud tops still
surrounds the eye. Dvorak current intensity estimates have not
changed substantially, and a blend of objective and subjective
classifications still supports an initial intensity of 85 kt.

Little change in strength is expected while Ophelia remains a
hurricane, since the relatively cool SSTs along the hurricane's path
will likely be offset by low shear and cold upper-level temperatures
for the next 36 h. Extratropical transition will likely begin
shortly after that time, as Ophelia begins to interact with a large
upper-level trough approaching from the west. The dynamical
guidance suggests that Ophelia will deepen in response to the
trough, and although the forecast does not explicitly show it, I can
not rule out that Ophelia will briefly intensify as it undergoes
extratropical transition. By 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to
occlude and begin weakening, though the expansion of the wind field
will result in impacts over portions of the British Isles,
regardless of its exact location or strength. By 96 hours,
continued weakening and interaction with land will likely cause the
surface circulation to become ill-defined, and dissipation is
expected shortly thereafter.

Ophelia is beginning to accelerate toward the east-northeast and the
initial motion estimate is 060/11 kt. Very little change has been
made to the official track forecast. Ophelia is still expected to
continue picking up speed on an east-northeast heading while passing
south of the Azores during the next 24 to 36 hours. By 48 hours,
interaction with the aforementioned upper-level trough will cause
Ophelia to turn toward the northeast and approach Ireland and the
western UK in about 72 h. The track guidance is tightly clustered,
especially through 72 h, and the new NHC track forecast is close to
the various multi-model consensus aids. Although the center of
Ophelia is not expected to reach Ireland or the UK until about day
3, wind and rain effects will arrive well in advance of the cyclone
center. Individuals in those locations should consult products from
their local meteorological service for more information on local
impacts.

Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
beginning late Saturday or Saturday night due to an approaching cold
front. Any deviation to the left of Ophelia's forecast track could
bring stronger winds to the islands. Interests in the Azores should
refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch
Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane-force post-tropical
cyclone by Monday before it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of
these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For
more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from
post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products
issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should
refer to products issued by the Met Office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 32.3N 31.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 33.4N 29.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 35.2N 25.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 38.2N 20.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 43.1N 16.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 53.2N 10.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 17/1800Z 60.5N 2.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13090
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:58 am    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

...CENTER OF CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OPHELIA EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 28.6W
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the
Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 28.6 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the east-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and a
continued east-northeast motion with an increase in forward speed
is forecast through this evening. A turn toward the northeast is
expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of Ophelia
will pass to the south and southeast of the southeastern Azores
by tonight or early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ophelia is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected today,
followed by slow weakening on Monday and Tuesday. However Ophelia
is still expected to remain a powerful cyclone for the next couple
of days as it approaches Ireland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
beginning this afternoon or tonight, primarily due to an approaching
cold front.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over the southeastern Azores through Saturday
night. During the same time, a cold front and moisture associated
with Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to
3 inches over the other islands of the Azores. This rainfall could
produce flooding, especially over the southeastern Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13090
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:59 am    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

Ophelia's 20-nmi-diameter eye has continued to become more distinct
and cloud-free, with the eye temperature now reaching 15 deg C.
Satellite intensity estimates range from T4.5/77 kt from TAFB to
T5.0/90 kt from SAB and T5.5/102 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. For now, the
initial intensity will remain at 85 kt, which is an average of the
available intensity estimates.

The initial motion estimate is 060/21 kt. Ophelia is embedded within
deep-layer southwesterly flow on the east side of a broad
mid-latitude trough. The global and regional models remain in
excellent agreement on the trough amplifying over the next 3-4 days,
which will cause the hurricane to accelerate toward the northeast at
forward speeds near 30 kt by 48 hours. The tight clustering of the
NHC model guidance, which shows very little cross-track or
along-track spread, increases the confidence in the official track.
As a result, no significant changes were made to the previous
advisory, and the new forecast track remains near the middle of the
guidance envelope, close to the HCCA and TVCX consensus models.

Ophelia is expected to remain in relatively low vertical wind shear
environment for the next 12 hours or so, which should help the
hurricane retain much of its current intensity during that time,
even though SSTs are only going to be 24-25C. However, upper-level
temperatures that are still about 2 deg C cooler than normal, which
will help to create sufficient instability to continue to drive the
development of inner-core convection. By 36 hours or so, the shear
is forecast to increase to 30-40 kt and the troposphere is expected
to become stable as sea-surface temperatures decrease to less than
20 deg C. However, even those SST values are about 2 deg C warmer
than normal for this time of the year. Those above-average ocean
temperatures are forecast to combine with strong baroclinic energy
associated with a potent, negatively tilted, upper-level trough,
causing Ophelia to transition into a powerful extratropical low
pressure system. By 48 hours, the post-tropical cyclone is forecast
to maintain sustained hurricane-force winds as it approaches
Ireland, with stronger winds expected over higher terrain.

Given that Ophelia is forecast to become extratropical, the wind
field should expand, resulting in impacts over portions of the
British Isles regardless of its exact location or strength. By 96
hours, Ophelia should have weakened due to the interaction with
land, causing the surface circulation to become ill-defined, and
dissipation is expected shortly thereafter.

Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or
the UK for another 48-60 hours, wind and rain effects will arrive
well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for more information on local impacts.

Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
beginning tonight, primarily due to an approaching cold front.
However, any track deviation to the west could bring stronger winds
associated with Ophelia's circulation to those islands. Interests
in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather
Forecast and Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane-force post-tropical
cyclone by Monday before it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of
these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For
more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from
post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products
issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should
refer to products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 33.9N 28.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 35.3N 25.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 38.3N 20.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 43.0N 16.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/0600Z 48.4N 12.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/0600Z 57.4N 6.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/0600Z 63.1N .5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13090
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 10:17 am    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

...OPHELIA BECOMES A RARE CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE SOUTH OF THE
AZORES...
...THIS IS THE SIXTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 26.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the
Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 26.6 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this motion
is expected continue through Sunday with a turn toward the
north-northeast thereafter. On the forecast track, the core of
Ophelia will pass to the south and southeast of the southeastern
Azores by tonight.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Ophelia is a
category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
No significant change in strength is expected today, but gradual
weakening should begin tonight or Sunday. However, Ophelia is still
expected to remain a powerful cyclone with hurricane force winds for
the next couple of days as it approaches Ireland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
beginning this afternoon or tonight, primarily due to an approaching
cold front.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over the central and southeastern Azores through
Saturday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13090
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 10:18 am    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

During the past few hours, Ophelia's satellite presentation has
improved significantly. The eye has become even more distinct
with a temperature of 16 deg C, and has been surrounded by very
deep convection. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have reached 5.5 on the
Dvorak scale, and the objective numbers from CIMMS have been
oscillating around T5.8 and T5.9 recently. Based on these estimates,
the initial intensity has been increased conservatively to 100 kt,
making Ophelia a category 3 hurricane on the SSHS. Ophelia is a
quite intense and rare hurricane for its location in the
northeastern Atlantic. Increasing shear and cold waters will
soon begin to impact Ophelia, and the hurricane should begin to
acquire extratropical characteristics in about 36 hours or sooner.
Although some weakening is anticipated, Ophelia is expected to reach
the British Isles as a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane
force winds. Dissipation is forecast in about 4 days after the
system moved over these Isles.

Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the northeast
or 055 degrees at 22 kt. The hurricane is well embedded within the
southwesterly flow associated with the southern extension of a large
mid-latitude trough, and this pattern should continue to steer the
cyclone northeastward and north-northeastward with increasing
forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days until dissipation. Track
models are in excellent agreement and the guidance envelope is quite
tight. The NHC forecast is not different from previous ones, and it
is very close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the
multi-model ensemble TVCX.

Given that Ophelia is forecast to become extratropical, the wind
field should expand, resulting in impacts over portions of the
British Isles regardless of its exact location or strength.

Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or
the UK for another couple of days, wind and rains will arrive
well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for more information on local impacts.

Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
after Ophelia passes to the south and east later today and tonight
as a cold front moves through the islands. Interests in the Azores
should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and
Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions
of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.
For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts
from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to
products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom
should refer to products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 34.8N 26.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 36.5N 23.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 40.5N 18.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 46.5N 14.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/1200Z 51.5N 11.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1200Z 59.0N 6.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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