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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Ophelia- Final Advisory
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Ophelia- Final Advisory
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:19 am    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 11 2017

...OPHELIA LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE ON SATELLITE BUT IT IS NOT ONE
QUITE YET...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 36.5W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 36.5 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this slow motion is
expected to continue today with a gradual turn to the northeast
Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast and Ophelia is anticipated to
become a hurricane at any time today or tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:20 am    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 11 2017

If I only had conventional satellite imagery, I would definitely
estimate that Ophelia was a hurricane. The cyclone has a ragged eye
surrounded by deep convection and cyclonically curved bands.
Furthermore, Dvorak intensity estimates, both subjective and
objective, from all agencies are T4.0 plus. However, several ASCAT
passes during the past day or so indicate that the winds have been
lower than the winds one could assign the cyclone by using Dvorak.
Once again this morning, a pair of ASCAT passes showed winds of
less than 45 kt, but I am assuming that the ASCAT can not resolve
the sharp wind gradient typically associated with an eyewall, and
earlier SSMIS data indicated that one is present. Since we do not
have a hurricane hunter plane to give us exact measurements, we
need to compromise between the very valuable satellite-based
estimates, and the initial intensity is set at 60 kt in this
advisory.

Although the ocean is not too warm, the shear is low and the
upper-troposphere is cool. These factors should provide some
low-octane fuel favoring slight strengthening, and Ophelia is
still expected to become a hurricane at any time within the next 12
hours. Extratropical transition is likely to start between day 3 and
day 4, and Ophelia is anticipated to remain a strong cyclone over
the northeastern Atlantic.

Ophelia is moving slowly toward the east at 3 kt, embedded within
light steering currents, and little motion is expected today. A
mid-level trough is forecast to amplify west of Ophelia, and this
pattern will provide a stronger southwesterly steering flow
which eventually force the cyclone to move toward the northeast with
increasing forward speed. Most of the track models agree with this
solution increasing the confidence in the track forecast. The NHC
forecast follows very closely the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA
which has been very skillful this season.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 30.0N 36.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 29.9N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 30.1N 35.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 30.8N 34.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 31.5N 33.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 34.0N 26.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 40.0N 17.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/1200Z 51.5N 12.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:01 pm    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2017

...OPHELIA BECOMES THE 10TH HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 36.1W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 36.1 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northeast drift
is expected tonight and tomorrow, followed by an acceleration
toward the east-northeast or northeast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible over the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:02 pm    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2017

Intensity estimates for Ophelia still range wildly. Dvorak
estimates, both subjective and objective, continue to support a much
higher intensity than other satellite-derived maximum wind
estimates. Adding to the uncertainty, subjective Dvorak
classifications at 1800 UTC were higher than 6 hours prior, but
since that time, the ragged eye has become obscured in IR imagery.
However, a recent SSMIS pass at 1813 UTC indicated that the
convective structure of the cyclone has improved during the day, so
it wouldn't be surprising if the eye became apparent again shortly.
In an attempt to blend all available data, the initial intensity has
been increased to 65 kt, making Ophelia a hurricane. However, it
should be stressed that the uncertainty of the initial intensity is
higher than normal.

The hurricane is moving slowly toward the east and the initial
motion estimate is 090/3 kt. The hurricane is embedded within weak
steering flow, and only a slow northeastward drift is expected for
the next 24 h. After that time, an approaching deep-layer trough
should force Ophelia to accelerate toward the northeast. All of the
deterministic models are in fairly good agreement on the speed and
track of Ophelia, however the various model ensembles suggest that
the uncertainty is much higher, especially regarding the forward
speed of Ophelia beyond 48 h. The official track forecast favors
the deterministic model solutions, in part to maintain continuity
with the previous advisory. The track forecast is therefore close
to the multi-model consensus, but much faster than the various
ensemble mean aids.

Since it isn't clear exactly how strong Ophelia is, the intensity
forecast is low confidence. All of the intensity guidance indicates
that strengthening is likely for the next 24 to 36 hours, however
the near stationary motion of the hurricane could induce some
upwelling and limit the extent to which the hurricane may
strengthen. Around 72 hours, the shear should begin to increase
substantially as Ophelia begins to interact with the approaching
trough, and extratropical transition will likely begin, accompanied
by a broadening of the wind field and a gradual decrease of the
maximum winds. The global models indicate that this process will
complete by 96 h. The new NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher
than the previous forecast, but lies on the lower end of the
intensity guidance for the first 72 h. It is near the consensus
aids thereafter.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 30.0N 36.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 30.3N 35.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 30.7N 35.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 31.4N 34.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 32.3N 31.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 35.5N 24.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 43.0N 16.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/1800Z 53.5N 10.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 4:33 am    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Thu Oct 12 2017

...OPHELIA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 35.6W
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the eastern Azores should monitor the progress of
Ophelia.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 35.6 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). This general
motion is expected today, followed a by faster motion toward the
east-northeast or northeast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or
two.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 4:35 am    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Thu Oct 12 2017

Satellite imagery indicates that Ophelia continues to gradually
become better organized, with the hurricane maintaining a
well-defined eye and the cloud tops in the eyewall gradually
cooling. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates range between 75-90 kt, and based on the previous trend of
the intensity being near the lower end of the estimates, the initial
intensity is kept at a possibly conservative 75 kt.

The initial motion is 040/3. Ophelia is currently in an area of
light steering currents to the south of the mid-latitude
westerlies. The large-scale models forecast a deep-layer trough to
amplify over the central and northeastern Atlantic during the
forecast period, which should steer Ophelia northeastward or
east-northeastward at an increasing forward speed for the next few
days. The track guidance has changed little since the last
advisory, and the new forecast track, which leans toward the HFIP
Corrected Consensus and the Florida State Superensemble, is an
update of the previous forecast.

Ophelia is forecast to remain in a light to moderate shear
environment and over marginal sea surface temperatures for the next
24-36 h, and the intensity forecast shows some strengthening during
this time in agreement with the guidance. After that, the hurricane
is expected to move over cooler water. As that happens, though,
interaction with the above-mentioned westerly trough should help
Ophelia keep its intensity. Extratropical transition should begin
by 72 h, with Ophelia likely to become a hurricane-force baroclinic
low by 96 h. The guidance is in good agreement that Ophelia should
affect Ireland, northern Ireland and Great Britain between 96-120 h
as a powerful extratropical low.

Although the track guidance keeps the center offshore of the
Azores, a tropical storm watch or warning could be needed for the
eastern Azores on Thursday because of the forecasted increase in
wind radii in the northwestern quadrant of the cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 30.3N 35.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 30.7N 35.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 31.3N 34.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 32.2N 32.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 33.7N 28.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 38.5N 20.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 49.0N 13.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 17/0600Z 59.0N 7.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:35 am    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 12 2017

...OPHELIA MEANDERING SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 35.6W
ABOUT 715 MI...1145 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the eastern Azores should monitor the progress of
Ophelia.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 35.6 West. Ophelia is drifting
north-northeastward around 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow northeastward
motion is expected to begin later today, followed by a faster
east-northeastward motion on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



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PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:39 am    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 12 2017

Ophelia's satellite presentation consists of a distinct eye in
infrared imagery surrounded by a ring of cloud tops of -50C to -70C.
The initial intensity of 80 kt is based on a blend of the latest
subjective and objective Dvorak estimates, which range from 77 to
95 kt. Little change in intensity is expected during the next 48
hours, as Ophelia will remain over SSTs of 25-26C and in a low
to moderate shear environment. After that time, the cyclone should
begin extratropical transition as it interacts with a potent
mid-latitude trough moving eastward across the north Atlantic. This
baroclinic interaction should maintain Ophelia at hurricane
intensity through 96 hours, with slow weakening expected after that
time as the extratropical cyclone occludes.

Ophelia has moved little since the last advisory, with the cyclone
currently situated south of the mid-latitude westerlies. The
initial motion estimate is a slow north-northeastward drift at
around 2 kt. A steadier northeastward motion should begin by 12 h
when the aforementioned upper-level trough begins to exert influence
on Ophelia's motion. An east-northeastward acceleration is expected
at 24 through 48 h, followed by a turn back to the northeast and
north-northeast at days 3 through 5 as Ophelia interacts with the
southern portion of the trough. Through the first 48 hours, the new
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope. Later in the forecast period,
there remains a fair bit of east/west spread in the track of Ophelia
near Ireland and the United Kingdom, which isn't usual at these time
ranges. The NHC forecast at these times is similar to the previous
one and lies on the right side of the deterministic guidance
envelope but is near the middle of the ECMWF, UKMET and GEFS
ensemble members. Regardless of the exact track, post-tropical
Ophelia is likely to bring some impacts to Ireland and the United
Kingdom as a powerful extratropical cyclone in 4 to 5 days.

While the track guidance keeps the center of Ophelia east of the
Azores, a tropical storm watch or warning could be needed for the
eastern Azores later today or tonight because of the expected
increase in the size of the tropical-storm-force winds in the
northwestern quadrant of the cyclone.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-
tropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some
direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas,
as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast
uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts. Residents in
Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of
Ophelia for the next several days. For more information on local
impacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met
Eireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products
issued by the Met Office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 30.5N 35.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 30.9N 34.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 31.6N 33.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 32.7N 30.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 34.4N 27.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 40.9N 18.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 51.0N 12.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 17/1200Z 60.5N 5.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:17 pm    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Thu Oct 12 2017

...OPHELIA BARELY MOVING BUT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 35.5W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the
Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 35.5 West. Ophelia is currently
meandering, but a east-northeast motion is expected to begin
tonight. A east-northeast motion is forecast to continue after that
with a substantial increase in forward speed by this weekend. On
the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will remain south of the
Azores through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, but Ophelia is expected to remain a hurricane for the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over Santa Maria Island of the Azores Saturday and
Saturday night. During the same time, a cold front and moisture
associated with Ophelia is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the other islands of the Azores.
This rainfall could produce flooding, especially over Santa Maria
Island.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:19 pm    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Thu Oct 12 2017

Ophelia's structure has continued to improve during the afternoon.
The eye of the hurricane has cleared and is surrounded by a ring of
cloud tops colder than -55 deg C. Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and the UW-CIMSS ADT have increased accordingly, and on that basis
the initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt. Ophelia is
nearly stationary, which could cause the hurricane to stop
strengthening, or even weaken slightly during the next 12 to 24
hours due to upwelling effects. That said, the intensity guidance
is in good agreement that Ophelia will remain at hurricane strength
for the next 48 h while it remains in a fairly unstable, low-shear
environment. Beyond that time, extratropical transition will begin,
though baroclinic forcing will likely keep post-tropical Ophelia
near hurricane strength as it approaches Ireland and the UK. The
new intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and
is generally close to the multi-model intensity consensus.

Although Ophelia is currently stationary, a mid-latitude trough
should cause it to begin moving toward the east-northeast within
about 24 hours. The cyclone will then accelerate on that heading in
the faster mid-latitude westerly flow ahead of the trough, before
turning toward the northeast around day 3 as extratropical
transition occurs and the hurricane becomes entangled with the
southern extent of the trough. Confidence in the track forecast is
fairly high for the first 72 h, and all of the dynamical guidance is
tightly clustered through this period. The model spread increases
substantially at 96 h and beyond. As a post-tropical cyclone,
Ophelia will continue to interact with the southern extent of the
trough, and should turn toward the northeast as a result of this
interaction. However, the details of this turn vary greatly from
model to model. The new NHC forecast has been nudged slightly
toward the east at this time range, closer to the UKMET and ECMWF
models, as well as the corrected consensus aids HCCA and FSSE.

While the track guidance keeps the center of Ophelia south and east
of the Azores, tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout
the Azores by Sunday due to an approaching front. In addition, the
wind field of Ophelia will likely expand as the cyclone begins
extratropical transition, and any deviation to the left of the
forecast track could bring stronger winds to the islands. Interests
in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather
Forecast and Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-
tropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some
direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas,
as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast
uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts. Residents in
Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of
Ophelia for the next several days. For more information on local
impacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met
Eireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products
issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 30.4N 35.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 31.0N 34.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 31.9N 32.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 33.2N 29.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 35.0N 25.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 42.6N 17.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 53.0N 10.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 17/1800Z 62.5N 2.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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