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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Nate- Final Advisory
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Nate- Final Advisory
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13090
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:57 pm    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nate Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

...CENTER OF NATE APPROACHING THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ONSHORE IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 89.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13090
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 6:07 pm    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
700 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

...NATE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 89.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake
Pontchartrain has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The
Hurricane Watch for Lake Maurepas has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), NOAA Doppler radar data indicate that the
center of Hurricane Nate is now making landfall at the mouth of the
Mississippi River, near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 89.2 West.
Nate is now moving toward the north and a little slower, near 20 mph
(31 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later
tonight, followed by a motion toward the northeast on Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Nate will make a second landfall
along the coast of Mississippi tonight. After landfall, the center
of Nate is expected to pass over portions of Mississippi, Alabama,
and Tennessee late tonight through Sunday night.

Aircraft reconnaissance data and Doppler radar velocity data
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph
(140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening now appears unlikely
before Nate's center reaches the Mississippi coast during the next
few hours. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, with Nate
becoming a tropical depression by Sunday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km) mainly to the east of the center. A sustained wind
of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (94 km/h) were recently
reported by NOAA buoy 42040 to the east of the mouth of the
Mississippi River.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 982 mb (29.00
inches).

A water level of 2.9 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) was
recently reported by a National Ocean Service gauge at Pilots
Station East, Southwest Pass, Louisiana.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions already
spreading onshore. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area tonight and Sunday morning. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...7
to 11 ft
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Mobile Bay...6 to 9 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6
ft
Grand Isle, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to
4 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 3 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft
Morgan City, Louisiana to Grand Isle...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

Western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across parts of Alabama, the
western Florida Panhandle, western Georgia, and southern Mississippi
through Sunday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13090
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:50 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 16...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

Corrected Storm Surge breakpoint in Hazards section

...NATE MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...
...RAPID WEAKENING ANTICIPATED...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 88.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13090
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:52 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

The eye of Hurricane Nate moved a few hours ago near or over the
Keesler Air Force base, which is the home of the AF Hurricane
Hunters. The winds became light and the pressure dropped to 986
mb when the eye passed nearby that location a little after 0500 UTC.
Since that time, Nate continued to move farther inland and surface
observations as well as Doppler radar data indicate that winds have
decreased. The initial intensity has been adjusted downward to 60
kt. Since the circulation is already inland, rapid weakening is
anticipated, and Nate is forecast to become a remnant low in about
36 hours as suggested by SHIPS decay model.

Radar fixes indicate that Nate is moving toward the north-northeast
at 20 kt. Nate is already embedded within the fast mid-latitude
westerlies, and this flow pattern should keep the cyclone on a
north-northeast to northeast track with increasing forward speed
for the next 2 days.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Nate is producing life-threatening storm surge flooding in areas
of onshore flow and a storm surge warning remains in effect from
Pointe a la Hache to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida.
Maximum flooding of 5 to 8 feet above ground level is expected
along the Mississippi coast within the next several hours.

2. Nate's fast forward speed over land will bring tropical storm
conditions well inland across portions of the southeastern U.S.

3. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central
Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and
southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for
flash flooding in these areas.

4. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also
bring 2 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 7 inches across
the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which
will increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 31.5N 88.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 34.1N 86.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/0600Z 38.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/1800Z 42.5N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/0600Z 44.0N 71.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13090
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:04 pm    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nate Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND AS NATE BECOMES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...
...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 87.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nate
was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 87.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 24 mph (39
km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward
speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, Nate's center will continue to move inland across the Deep
South, Tennessee Valley, and central Appalachian Mountains through
Monday.

Surface observations indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change
in strength is predicted during the next couple of days, but Nate
is forecast to become post-tropical on Monday or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are expected over the
the Florida Panhandle, and portions of Alabama and Georgia through
this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along portions of the
northern Gulf coast, but should gradually subside this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches.

TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes will be possible today, mainly from
the Florida Panhandle and eastern Alabama across western and
northern Georgia into the western Carolinas.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico through this evening. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header
WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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