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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Maria- Final Advisory
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Maria- Final Advisory
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:38 pm    Post subject: Re: Maria- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...
...CONDITIONS NOW DETERIORATING OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 67.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM NNW OF AGUADILLA PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:40 pm    Post subject: Re: Maria- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft found that Maria's
center moved off the northwestern coast of Puerto Rico just before
1800 UTC, but the hurricane appears to have taken quite a hit from
the high mountains of the island. The aircraft measured a maximum
flight-level wind of 106 kt to the east of the center and SFMR
surface winds as high as 91 kt. The initial intensity is therefore
set to 95 kt. The central pressure has also risen considerably, and
the latest report from the airplane is 957 mb.

Maria may have taken a temporary jog west-northwestward across
Puerto Rico, likely due to topographic effects, but the longer-term
motion remains northwestward, or 305/10 kt. Maria should maintain
a northwestward motion for the next 36 hours while it remains on
the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high over the western
Atlantic. After 36 hours, Maria is expected to turn northward
between the high and a broad trough extending from Tropical Storm
Jose southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. The updated track
guidance remains in excellent agreement on this scenario, and the
overall guidance envelope has shifted a bit eastward on this cycle.
The new NHC forecast is therefore nudged a little east of the
previous forecast toward the various consensus aids.

It may take some time for Maria's structure to reorganize itself
now that it is back over water. Although the intensity models are
not all that enthusiastic about strengthening, the environment
looks conducive for intensification, and the NHC forecast lies at
the upper bound of the guidance, closest to the HWRF solution. It
would not be surprising, however, if Maria eventually strengthens
more than shown here. Some weakening is expected by days 4 and 5
due to increased shear, as well as Maria possibly moving over the
cold wake of Tropical Storm Jose to the east of the Carolinas.

We would like to thank the crew of the latest Air Force Reserve
mission for their incredible service today. After beginning their
mission this morning before the center first moved onshore, the crew
went above and beyond, returning to Curacao to refuel, and then
heading back to Puerto Rico to catch Maria's center when it first
moved back off the coast. The data collected by the crew was
incredibly important for us to analyze Maria's intensity and
structure after moving across the island, and we are grateful for
their effort.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's core is moving away from the northwestern coast of Puerto
Rico, and strong winds and storm surge flooding should subside
through early Thursday. However, heavy rainfall is expected to
continue, and catastrophic flash flooding is occurring on the
island, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Everyone in
Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local officials to
avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions.

2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous
wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 18.8N 67.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 19.5N 68.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 20.5N 69.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 21.6N 70.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 22.9N 71.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 25.8N 72.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 29.0N 72.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 31.5N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:26 am    Post subject: Re: Maria- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

...MARIA CONTINUES TO LASH THE NORTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 68.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:28 am    Post subject: Re: Maria- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

Although the large, 40 n mi diameter, eye of the hurricane is still
a little ragged-looking, it is gradually becoming better defined,
and a ring of cold cloud tops is intensifying around the eye. The
current intensity estimate is 100 kt based on earlier Air Force
Hurricane Hunter data and recent Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB. Maria is likely to move over warm waters with moderate
southwesterly vertical shear for the next couple of days. Maria's
well-developed upper-level outflow suggests that shear is probably
not having much influence over the hurricane at this time. Although
the numerical guidance is not very aggressive about intensification,
based on the current trends of the cloud pattern, some strengthening
seems likely over the next day or so. Later in the forecast period,
shear will probably cause gradual weakening. The official intensity
forecast is a little above the latest model consensus.

Maria continues its northwestward motion, at about 315/8 kt. The
hurricane is expected to turn north-northwestward and northward
around a subtropical ridge over the Atlantic for the next 2 to 3
days. Late in the forecast period, a mid-level high over the
northeastern U.S. could slow the forward motion somewhat. This
high is forecast by the global models to subsequently weaken
however, which should allow Maria to turn north-northeastward in
the flow on the northwestern edge of a subtropical ridge over the
west-central Atlantic. The official track forecast lies between
the corrected consensus guidance and the latest ECMWF prediction.
This is quite similar to the previous NHC track.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue, and catastrophic flash
flooding is occurring in Puerto Rico, especially in areas of
mountainous terrain. Everyone in Puerto Rico should continue to
follow advice from local officials to avoid these life-threatening
flooding conditions.

2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous
wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 19.6N 68.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 20.5N 69.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 21.6N 70.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 22.9N 71.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 24.3N 71.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 27.4N 72.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 30.0N 72.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 32.5N 70.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:08 am    Post subject: Re: Maria- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

...MARIA HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUES IN PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 69.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM ENE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
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ccstorms
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Posts: 13143
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:10 am    Post subject: Re: Maria- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

Maria is maintaining a large, 40 nm wide eye, and overall, the
hurricane's satellite presentation has not changed since the
previous advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating the system has not measured flight-level winds as
high as last evening's mission, and the central pressure has
remained relatively steady. Although there were higher SFMR winds
measured, especially to the northeast of the center, the flight
meteorologist reported that the instrument appears to be running
5-10 kt too high. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 100
kt.

Maria appears to be moving over the remnant cold wake leftover from
Hurricane Irma, but it should begin to move over an area of higher
oceanic heat content during the next 24 hours or so. Therefore,
some strengthening is still forecast, although it is not especially
aggressive given what the latest intensity guidance is showing.
Gradual weakening is likely from 48 hours onward due to some
increase in southwesterly shear, as well as lower oceanic heat
content over the western Atlantic. Still, Maria is expected to
remain a hurricane for the next 5 days.

The initial motion is northwestward, or 310/8 kt. Maria will be
moving between a mid-level high centered south of Bermuda and a
broad trough extending from Tropical Storm Jose southwestward into
the northern Gulf of Mexico. As a result, Maria is expected to
turn gradually north-northwestward to north-northeastward by the
end of the forecast period, keeping it over the waters of the
western Atlantic after moving by the Turks and Caicos Islands and
the southeastern Bahamas. The track models continue to be tightly
clustered, and the updated NHC track forecast lies right along the
previous forecast, down the middle of the guidance envelope.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Flash flood emergencies continue in portions of Puerto Rico due
to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands.
Catastrophic flooding is occurring on the island, especially in
areas of mountainous terrain, and everyone in Puerto Rico should
continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these
life-threatening flooding conditions.

2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous
wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 20.2N 69.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 21.0N 69.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 22.2N 70.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 23.6N 71.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 25.1N 71.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 28.2N 72.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 30.5N 71.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 33.0N 70.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:13 pm    Post subject: Re: Maria- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
200 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

...MARIA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 69.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ENE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES



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PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:04 am    Post subject: Re: Maria- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...EYE OF MARIA NOW NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND DANGEROUS HIGH WAVES STARTING TO SUBSIDE
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 70.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM ESE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:06 am    Post subject: Re: Maria- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
0500 UTC indicated that the central pressure of Maria had risen to
959 mb, accompanied by flight-level winds and SFMR surface wind
estimates that supported an intensity near 110 kt. Since that time,
the cloud tops in the eyewall have cooled, but the eye has become
less distinct in conventional satellite imagery. The initial
intensity is held at 110 kt pending the arrival of the next plane
near 1200 UTC, but it is possible this is a little generous. Maria
is starting to be affected by 15-20 kt of southwesterly vertical
wind shear, with the first sign of this being a decrease in
convective banding in the western semicircle.

The large-scale models forecast some shear to persist through the
forecast period, and as a result the intensity guidance predicts a
gradual weakening. In addition, after 48 h the forecast track takes
the center of Maria over waters that were cooled significantly by
the passage of former Hurricane Jose. Based on these factors, the
new intensity forecast calls for a slow weakening during the first
48 h similar to the previous forecast, then calls for more weakening
than previously forecast as the cyclone reaches the colder waters.

The initial motion is 315/6. Maria will be moving between the
subtropical ridge to the east and a broad trough over the
southeastern United States and the adjacent Atlantic waters during
the next several days. This pattern should cause the hurricane to
turn north-northwestward and then northward during the next 72 h.
The track guidance is tightly clustered during this part of the
forecast, and the new forecast track is an update of the previous
track. After 72 h, the guidance becomes a little more divergent.
The Canadian and ECMWF models are on the left side of the envelope
showing a generally northward motion, while the GFS is on the right
side showing a north-northeastward motion. This part of the
forecast track is nudged just a little to the left of the old
forecast and the consensus models to account for the ECMWF/Canadian
forecasts.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Flash flood warnings continue in portions of Puerto Rico due
to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands.
Everyone in Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local
officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions.

2. Swells from Maria are expected to begin reaching the coast of
the southeastern United States today. These swells are likely to
cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents along the
coast for the next several days, even with Maria forecast to remain
well offshore over the western Atlantic Ocean.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 21.6N 70.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 22.6N 71.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 24.2N 71.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 25.9N 72.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 27.4N 72.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 29.5N 72.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 31.5N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 33.5N 70.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:13 pm    Post subject: Re: Maria- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...MARIA NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, AWAY FROM THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 71.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM ESE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

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