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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Lee-Final Advisory
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Lee-Final Advisory
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:23 am    Post subject: Re: Lee-Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lee Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
500 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...POORLY ORGANIZED LEE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 39.8W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1710 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:54 am    Post subject: Re: Lee-Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lee Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...LEE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 40.6W
ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:37 pm    Post subject: Re: Lee-Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lee Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...LEE LOSING ORGANIZATION...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 42.3W
ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 6:10 am    Post subject: Re: Lee-Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Lee Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...LEE HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 43.0W
ABOUT 1265 MI...2035 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the remnants of Lee were located near
latitude 15.1 North, longitude 43.0 West. The remnants of Lee are
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue until dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts
and the low is expected to dissipate in a day or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:10 pm    Post subject: Re: Lee-Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lee Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
500 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017

...LEE REGENERATES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
...NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 48.9W
ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lee was
located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 48.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a
gradual turn to the northeast and east is forecast over the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake



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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sat Sep 23, 2017 5:55 am    Post subject: Re: Lee-Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
500 AM AST Sat Sep 23 2017

...TINY LEE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 49.2W
ABOUT 910 MI...1470 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was
located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 49.2 West. Lee is moving
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the east is
expected later today today, followed by a turn toward the
east-southeast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lee
could be near hurricane strength by the end of the weekend.

Lee is a small tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:23 am    Post subject: Re: Lee-Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 23 2017

...LEE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE DRIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 49.4W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1330 MI...2145 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sat Sep 23, 2017 2:44 pm    Post subject: Re: Lee-Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
500 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2017

...LEE DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.1N 49.8W
ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was
located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 49.8 West. Lee is moving
toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow turn toward
the north and northeast is expected tonight, followed by a turn
toward the east and east-southeast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lee
could be near hurricane strength by early next week.

Lee remains a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
only extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
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Posts: 13143
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:06 am    Post subject: Re: Lee-Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
500 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

...LEE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 50.1W
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1370 MI...2210 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 50.1 West. Lee is currently
drifting southward, and a slow southeastward motion is expected to
begin later today.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 36 to 48 hours and Lee could be near major hurricane
strength on Monday.

Lee is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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ccstorms
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Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:08 am    Post subject: Re: Lee-Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
500 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

Since the earlier special advisory issued to make Lee a hurricane,
the eye has become much better defined in IR imagery, indicating
that the hurricane has continued to rapidly intensify. The initial
intensity has therefore been increased to 75 kt, based on an
application of the Dvorak technique to the latest IR imagery. It
should be noted that in this case, the intensity is fairly uncertain
given the lack of ground truth and the small size of the cyclone.

At this point, it is hard to judge how long this period of rapid
intensification will continue. On one hand, Lee is expected to
remain in a relatively unstable and low-shear environment for the
next several days. On the other, despite the clearing of the eye,
cloud tops have not cooled significantly overnight, and the slow
motion of Lee allows the possibility that the storm could begin to
interact with its own cold wake. The NHC forecast brings Lee to
near major hurricane strength in 24 h, and then keeps Lee around
that intensity through day 4, similar to the FSSE model. By the end
of the forecast, higher shear, due in part to the outflow of
Hurricane Maria, could cause Lee to weaken, so the NHC forecast is a
little lower at that point.

Lee is drifting southward for now, but a southeastward motion is
still forecast to begin later today. Very little change has been
made to the NHC forecast, which is mainly just an update of the
previous one. The models have come into better agreement that Lee
will be primarily steered for the next several days by a mid-level
ridge building to the northwest. By day 5, a trough associated
with Maria and the subtropical ridge should cause Lee to begin
recurving. Since the model spread has decreased, confidence in
that aspect of the forecast has increased this morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 31.8N 50.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 31.6N 49.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 31.1N 48.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 30.6N 48.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 30.2N 49.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 30.5N 51.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 32.0N 52.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 34.5N 51.4W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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