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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Irma
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Irma
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Post new topic   Reply to topic    Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather Forum Index -> 2017 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Discussion
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ccstorms
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Posts: 12901
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 3:21 am    Post subject: Re: Irma Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

...IRMA MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 73.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Florida Keys

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet
* North of Bonita Beach to Venice

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le
Mole St. Nicholas
* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and
Villa Clara
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet
* North of Bonita Beach to Anna Maria Island
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 3:23 am    Post subject: Re: Irma Reply with quote

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

Microwave images and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that Irma is currently undergoing an
eyewall replacement cycle. A recent GMI overpass showed an 50 nmi
wide outer eyewall, with the inner eyewall weakening. The
Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported peak 700-mb winds of 147 kt in
the outer eyewall near 0500 UTC, and maximum SFMR winds were in the
125-130 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
reduced to 135 kt.

Irma is forecast to remain in a favorable warm water, light shear
environment for the next 36-48 h. The intensity guidance shows a
slow weakening during this time, but Irma is expected to remain at
least a Category 4 hurricane until landfall in Florida. After
landfall, a fairly quick decay in maximum winds is expected due to
land interaction and increased shear, although Irma's large wind
field is likely to still produce hurricane-force winds over a large
area. There are two caveats to the intensity forecast. First, some
additional weakening could occur during the eyewall replacement,
followed by re-intensification as the cycle completes. Second, the
ECMWF, UKMET, and NAVGEM forecast a track over or close to the
coast of Cuba that is not currently a part of the track forecast.
If this occurs, Irma could be weaker than currently forecast along
the later parts of the track.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/14. Irma should
maintain this general trajectory for the next 24-36 h as it moves
along the southwestern side of the subtropical ridge. After that
time, the guidance is in good agreement that the ridge should break
and allow Irma to turn north-northwestward to northward. There
remains some spread between the models on when the turn will occur,
with the GFS/Canadian being on the eastern side of the guidance and
the UKMET/NAVGEM on the left side. The ECMWF, Florida State
Superensemble, and the HFIP Corrected consensus are in the middle
of the guidance envelope, and the new track forecast is in best
agreement with those models. Overall, the new forecast track is
similar to the previous forecast, with minor westward adjustments
at 36 and 48 h.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane and will
continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards to the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas through
Saturday. Heavy rainfall is still possible across portions of
Hispaniola through today. Hurricane conditions will also spread
over portions of the north coast of Cuba, especially over the
adjacent Cuban Keys through Saturday.

2. Severe hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the
Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys beginning Saturday night.
Irma is likely to make landfall in southern Florida as a dangerous
major hurricane, and bring life-threatening storm surge and wind
impacts to much of the state. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
southern Florida, the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida
Bay, while Hurricane Watches have been issued northward into central
Florida.

3. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for southern Florida and the
Florida Keys. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of
life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from
the coastline, during the next 36 hours. This is a life-threatening
situation. Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and
the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm
Surge Watch has been issued north of the Storm Surge Warning area
for portions of the central Florida coast.

4. There is a chance of direct impacts in portions of Georgia,
South Carolina, and North Carolina, but it is too early to specify
the magnitude and location of these impacts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 21.7N 73.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 22.1N 75.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 22.6N 77.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 23.3N 79.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 24.5N 80.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 28.0N 81.5W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/0600Z 33.0N 84.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/0600Z 36.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 3:27 am    Post subject: Re: Irma Reply with quote

Rainfall Forecast




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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:53 am    Post subject: Re: Irma Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

...CORE OF HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST TO MOVE BETWEEN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 74.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NE OF CABO LUCRECIA CUBA
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.37 INCHES
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:52 pm    Post subject: Re: Irma Reply with quote

Too busy for any more posting. Just want to wish everyone the best of luck. I will be heading out to a motel tomorrow. Only listen to the local officials and the NHC. Smile
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CONVECTIVEMIKE
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Posts: 1044
Location: Boynton Beach FL

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 3:45 pm    Post subject: Re: Irma Reply with quote

Be safe everyone hate that Irma has set sights ob your side. Windows boarded up here on the SE side . Hopefully it slams into Cuba and gets torn up a good deal before heading North.
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CONVECTIVEMIKE
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Joined: Jul 19, 2007
Posts: 1044
Location: Boynton Beach FL

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 3:48 pm    Post subject: Re: Irma Reply with quote

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 76.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward for east coast of
Florida to Sebastian Inlet, and along the west coast of the
peninsula northward to Anna Maria Island.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward along the west coast
of Florida to Suwannee River.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued north of Venice to the Anclote
River, including Tampa Bay, and from Ponce Inlet to the Flagler/
Volusia County Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Venice
* Florida Keys

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County line
* North of Venice to Anclote River
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Anna
Maria Island
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and
Villa Clara
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line
* North of Anna Maria Island to the Suwannee River
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, Florida, and the southeastern United
States should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 76.5 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn toward the northwest
is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of
Irma should continue to move near the north coast of Cuba and the
central Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and be near the Florida
Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
to continue during the next day or two, and Irma is expected to
remain a powerful category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable...8 to 12 ft
Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Key...5 to 10 ft
Venice to Captiva...5 to 8 ft
Anclote River to Venice including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line...3 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are still occurring in portions of the
southeastern and Central Bahamas. Hurricane conditions are expected
to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast
of Cuba through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the
northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and in portions of
southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys Saturday night or
early Sunday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in central
and north Florida by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday night:

Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Turks and Caicos...additional 1 to 3
inches.
Southern Bahamas and northern Cuba...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Southern Cuba...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Jamaica...1 to 2 inches.
The Florida Keys, much of the Florida peninsula, and southeast
Georgia...8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Western and Northern Florida peninsula from Tampa northward...4 to 8
inches, isolated 12 inches.
Rest of Eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and Western North
Carolina...4 to 7 inches.
Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern
Tennessee...2 to 5 inches.

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and, in some areas, mudslides.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible beginning Saturday
morning across south Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the
southeast coast of the United States tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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chris
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Posts: 3340
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:14 pm    Post subject: Re: Irma Reply with quote

You're awesome Lou. Thanks and be safe my friend.

ccstorms wrote:
Too busy for any more posting. Just want to wish everyone the best of luck. I will be heading out to a motel tomorrow. Only listen to the local officials and the NHC. Smile

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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:46 am    Post subject: Re: Irma Reply with quote

Back home and all is well. Hope everyone is ok!!!!
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CONVECTIVEMIKE
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:30 pm    Post subject: Re: Irma Reply with quote

that was a wild one for sure....60-70 sustained over this side gusts to 100.

glad everyone is safe here

Good hearing from you Chris and Lou.
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