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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Harvey- Final Advisory
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Harvey- Final Advisory
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12893
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:30 am    Post subject: Re: Harvey- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located a few hundred miles west-northwest of Bermuda.

A broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms. This system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph,
and it is expected to cross into the Caribbean Sea on Friday.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive
for slow development of this system during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.



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ccstorms
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Posts: 12893
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:32 am    Post subject: Re: Harvey- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located a few hundred miles northwest of Bermuda.

1. A low pressure system located about 900 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms. This system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph,
and it is expected to cross into the Caribbean Sea on Friday.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more conducive
for development during the next several days, and interests in the
Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12893
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2017 12:18 pm    Post subject: Re: Harvey- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located a few hundred miles north of Bermuda.

A low pressure system located about 800 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles has become a little better defined since yesterday, but
most of the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is
displaced to the west of the center of circulation. Upper-level
winds are forecast to become more conducive for development during
the next day or so while the low moves westward at 15 to 20 mph
across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the Caribbean Sea
on Friday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system on Thursday, if necessary, and
interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of the
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.



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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12893
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:57 pm    Post subject: Re: Harvey- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located a few hundred miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have become
a little more concentrated this afternoon. Upper-level winds are
forecast to become more conducive for development during the next
day or so while the low moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the Caribbean Sea on Friday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are expected to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles on
Thursday night and Friday, and interests there and elsewhere in
the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this
disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system on Thursday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12893
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 4:49 am    Post subject: Re: Harvey- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located several hundred miles southeast of Halifax, Nova
Scotia.

Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system located about 550 miles east
of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for development, and this system has the potential to
become a tropical depression while it moves westward across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean and into the Caribbean Sea on Friday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are expected to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles
tonight and Friday, and interests there and elsewhere in the eastern
Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.



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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12893
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:23 am    Post subject: Re: Harvey- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located several hundred miles south of Cape Race,
Newfoundland.

Morning satellite imagery shows that shower activity associated
with a low pressure system centered about 550 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles has become better organized overnight, and buoy
data indicates that the circulation is becoming better defined.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form later today or tonight as the
system moves westward at about 15 mph. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread across
portions of the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean Sea
tonight and Friday, and interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.



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ccstorms
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Posts: 12893
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:37 am    Post subject: Re: Harvey- Final Advisory Reply with quote

NHC will be initiating advisories at 11 AM AST on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, located east of the Windward Islands.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:43 am    Post subject: Re: Harvey- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

...LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXPECTED TO BECOME
A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 54.1W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning For
Martinique.

The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.

The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Lucia.

The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24-36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 13.1 North, longitude 54.1 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
disturbance should move through the Windward Islands and into the
eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to become a tropical cyclone later
today or tonight, and it could become a tropical storm before
reaching the Windward islands.

If the current trends continue, the system will likely become a
tropical cyclone later today or tonight. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Lesser Antilles within the warning area by early Friday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Friday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from
Martinique southward to Grenada. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:46 am    Post subject: Re: Harvey- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

Satellite imagery, including experimental 1-minute data from
GOES-16, indicates that the circulation of the low pressure area
east of the Lesser Antilles is becoming better defined, and that a
cluster of strong convection has formed just west of the center.
Based on this and the potential for the system to become a tropical
storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, advisories are being
initiated as a potential tropical cyclone. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
this afternoon, and it is likely the aircraft will find a tropical
cyclone has formed.

The initial motion is 270/15. A deep-layer ridge to the north of
the system should steer it generally just north of due west through
the forecast period, with this motion expected to bring the system
through the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea in
24-36 h, into the central Caribbean by 72 h, and to the western
Caribbean by 96-120 h. The forecast track lies near the center of
the tightly clustered guidance envelope and lies near the various
consensus models.

The system is in an area of moderate easterly vertical shear, and
the large-scale models suggest that light/moderate shear should
continue through the forecast period. This seems favorable for
strengthening, and the SHIPS and LGEM models show slow, but steady,
intensification. However, the GFS and ECMWF models forecast the
system to degenerate to an easterly wave over the central Caribbean
Sea, possibly due to dry air entrainment. The intensity forecast
follows the trend of the SHIPS/LGEM models, but it respects the
GFS/ECMWF forecasts by being on the low side of the intensity
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 13.1N 54.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 18/0000Z 13.1N 56.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H 18/1200Z 13.2N 59.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 13.5N 63.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 13.9N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 14.5N 74.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 15.5N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 17.0N 87.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:48 am    Post subject: Re: Harvey- Final Advisory Reply with quote



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