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Hurricane Hermine
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Weatherman911
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Joined: Jul 11, 2006
Posts: 2660
Location: Cape Coral, FL

PostPosted: Wed Aug 31, 2016 7:40 pm    Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
700 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

...HERMINE STRENGTHENS SOME WHILE IT HEADS TOWARD THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 87.4W ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River to Destin

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to Destin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Marineland Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

Interests along the United States east coast from Georgia through the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 87.4 West. Hermine is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center will be near the coast in the warning area Thursday night.

⚠️ Recent reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Hermine could be near hurricane strength by the time landfall occurs.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center, mainly to the east and southeast.

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area on Thursday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of the hurricane watch area beginning Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by early Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 hours along the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka...4 to 6 feet Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 feet Florida-Georgia line to Cape Fear...1 to 3 feet

The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. This prototype graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida through Friday, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of the southeastern United States from southeast Georgia, central to eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina, with local amounts of 10 inches possible through Saturday. These rains may cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight into Thursday morning mainly across central Florida. A few tornadoes are possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night over north Florida and southeast Georgia.



NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$ Forecaster Stewart


















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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:33 am    Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote

Location: 26.4°N 86.6°W
Moving: NNE at 12 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

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CONVECTIVEMIKE
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Joined: Jul 19, 2007
Posts: 1044
Location: Boynton Beach FL

PostPosted: Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:42 pm    Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote

HURRICANE HERMINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
155 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
HERMINE HAS STRENGTHENED TO A HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds in Hermine have increased to near 75
mph (120 km/h). Based on these data, Hermine is now upgraded to a
hurricane, the fourth hurricane of 2016 in the Atlantic basin.


SUMMARY OF 155 PM CDT...1855 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 85.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Brennan/Pasch
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Weatherman911
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Joined: Jul 11, 2006
Posts: 2660
Location: Cape Coral, FL

PostPosted: Thu Sep 01, 2016 3:48 pm    Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote

⚠️ HURRICANE HERMINE
ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
400 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

...HURRICANE HERMINE HEADED FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURGE AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 85.0W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward along the United States Atlantic coast north of Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Duck to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward, and the southern Delaware Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Suwannee River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River to Suwannee River * West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Englewood to Suwannee River * West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line * Flagler/Volusia County line to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Duck to Sandy Hook * Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward * Southern Delaware Bay

Interests elsewhere along the United States northeast coast should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hermine was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 85.0 West. Hermine is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will be near the Florida coast in the hurricane warning area tonight or early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is forecast before landfall. Weakening will begin after Hermine crosses the coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 988 mb (29.18 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area beginning tonight. Winds are already near tropical storm strength in portions of the warning area, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area along the Atlantic coast on Friday, and spread northward through the weekend.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation within the next 12 to 24 hours along the Gulf coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Longboat Key. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River...4 to 7 feet Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown...6 to 9 feet Yankeetown to Aripeka...4 to 7 feet Aripeka to Longboat Key...including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 feet Longboat Key to Bonita Beach...1 to 3 feet Florida-Georgia line to Tidewater of Virginia...1 to 3 feet

The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. This prototype graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida and southern Georgia through Friday, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. On Friday and Saturday, Hermine is expected to produce totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of eastern Georgia, South Carolina, and eastern North Carolina through Saturday. These rains may cause life-threatening floods and flash floods.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across north Florida and southeast Georgia. The tornado risk will continue across the eastern Carolinas from Friday morning into Friday night.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$ Forecaster Pasch





















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Weatherman911
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Joined: Jul 11, 2006
Posts: 2660
Location: Cape Coral, FL

PostPosted: Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:02 pm    Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote

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