Posted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 11:29 am Post subject: NOAA August update for 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Despite the current quietude of the tropical Atlantic thanks to abundant dry Saharan air and lack of convection or rising moist air that contributes to the formation of thunderstorms, especially in the MDR (Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic between the western coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles) the NOAA updated its hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic basin today, still calling for an active season, at least the most active since 2012. This forecast includes the possibility of up to 17 named storms (tropical cyclones with sustained winds of at least 39mph receive names as they are classified as Tropical Storms at that point), possibly up to 8 hurricanes and perhaps as many as 4 major hurricanes. Obviously its going to take some time to see if this forecast comes to fruition as not much lies on the immediate horizon with regards to hurricane activity. Perhaps things will indeed change as we get into late August and into September, with the 100 year climatological peak of hurricane season being around September 10th.
On another note, in the latest SST anomaly map dated from August 8th, courtesy of NOAA, continues to show a warm Atlantic Ocean especially in the MDR and the western portion of the basin (including the Caribbean Sean, Gulf of Mexico and off the coast of the Southeastern US) with a weak La Nina trying to emerge in the east and central Pacific Ocean. Interestingly, the pattern of ocean temperatures in the Atlantic bares some resemblance to patterns observed on August 9th of 2010, another season that really didn't get going till after the 20th of August. One major difference is that in 2010 there was clearly a well developed La Nina in the Pacific Ocean and is clearly visible on the chart with blues (cooler than average SST's) showing up all over the Pacific on that date roughly six years ago.
SST Anomaly Chart 08-08-2016
SST Anomaly Chart 09-08-2010
With all that said, the rest of the season looks poised to become more active not too far into the near future (though probably wont be hyperactive, we'll just have to wait and see how it all ultimately pans out).
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