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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Jangmi (WPAC) Final Advisory
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Jangmi (WPAC) Final Advisory

 
This forum is locked: you cannot post, reply to, or edit topics.   This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies.    Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather Forum Index -> Pacific Tropics 2013 / 2014
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ccstorms
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Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 4:14 am    Post subject: Jangmi (WPAC) Final Advisory Reply with quote

WDPN31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (JANGMI) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 407 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WANING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKED ACROSS NORTHERN MINDANAO DESPITE REMAINING
TIGHTLY WRAPPED WITH WELL-DEFINED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 290446Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS
REVEALED A TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE DESPITE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND
THE MICROWAVE PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN SLIGHTLY LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS, BASED ON THE WEAKENING OF THE
CONVECTION AND IS IN LINE WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 23W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT MOVES TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR. AFTER TAU 36,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
ANOTHER STR ANCHORED NORTH OF SOUTHEAST ASIA AND THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. AS THIS STR ASSUMES STEERING, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO STRUGGLE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES BUT IS EXPECTED
TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT EMERGES OVER THE SULU SEA.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 23W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO INCREASING INTERACTION WITH A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT,
WHICH WILL ADVECT COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE SYSTEM INDUCING A
WEAKENING TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AS SUPPORTED BY THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE.





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Last edited by ccstorms on Wed Dec 31, 2014 4:01 am; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 1:38 pm    Post subject: Re: Jangmi (WPAC) Final Advisory Reply with quote

WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (JANGMI) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR), ALONG WITH RADAR ANIMATION FROM CEBU STATION,
PHILIPPINES, REVEALS THAT TS JANGMI HAS INTENSIFIED AS IT TRACKED
ACROSS THE SURIGAO STRAIT AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME
MORE TIGHTLY WRAPPED AND BETTER DEFINED DESPITE A SHALLOWING OF THE
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL ACROSS BOHOL
ISLAND. A 290946Z SSMIS PASS FURTHER REVEALED A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED ACROSS THE STRAIT. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION OF THE SYSTEM BASED ON
THIS DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS
BASED ON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADAR ANIMATION AND AGREES WITH THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM PGTW THAT INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS AS WELL. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A CONTINUALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
TS 23W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-
LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT SWITCHES STEERING INFLUENCES FROM THE CURRENT
STR TO ANOTHER STR ANCHORED NORTH OF SOUTHEAST ASIA AND THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. AS THIS STR ASSUMES STEERING, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY AS IT TRACKS OVER THE PHILIPPINE
ISLANDS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT EMERGES OVER THE SULU
SEA.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 23W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STR. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO INCREASING INTERACTION WITH A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE EVENT, WHICH WILL ADVECT COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE
SYSTEM INDUCING A WEAKENING TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK AS SUPPORTED BY THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE.//




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Cape Coral.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 4:53 pm    Post subject: Re: Jangmi (WPAC) Final Advisory Reply with quote

WDPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (JANGMI) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A WELL-STRUCTURED SYSTEM
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AS TS 23W TRACKS ACROSS THE
PHILIPPINES. A 291812Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE EIR ANIMATION, SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE
DUE TO LAND INFLUENCES; THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS
IS BASED ON THE WEAKENING TREND AND OVERALL CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 23W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT
IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 23W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID- LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 06 TO 12
HOURS AND WILL BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS ANOTHER
STR LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) ASSUMES STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT
DAY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER THE PHILIPPINES. AFTER TAU 48, TS
JANGMI WILL EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN SCS AND SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS JANGMI WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. INTENSIFICATION WILL
BE LIMITED DUE TO INCREASING INTERACTION WITH A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE EVENT, WHICH WILL ADVECT COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE
SYSTEM INDUCING A WEAKENING TREND. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//




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PostPosted: Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:54 am    Post subject: Re: Jangmi (WPAC) Final Advisory Reply with quote

WDPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (JANGMI) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY
DISPERSED AS IT TRACKED ACROSS THE VISAYAN ISLANDS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE
CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OBSCURED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 23W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (15-KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS
ANOTHER STR LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) ASSUMES STEERING.
AFTER TAU 36, TS JANGMI WILL EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN SCS AND SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS JANGMI WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SCS STR.
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO INCREASING INTERACTION WITH A
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT, WHICH WILL BRING IN RELATIVELY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE SYSTEM INDUCING A WEAKENING TREND AND
EVENTUAL DISSIPATION AS IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO THE MALAY PENINSULA.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.





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PostPosted: Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:12 am    Post subject: Re: Jangmi (WPAC) Final Advisory Reply with quote








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PostPosted: Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:14 am    Post subject: Re: Jangmi (WPAC) Final Advisory Reply with quote








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PostPosted: Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:16 am    Post subject: Re: Jangmi (WPAC) Final Advisory Reply with quote








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PostPosted: Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:08 pm    Post subject: Re: Jangmi (WPAC) Final Advisory Reply with quote

WDPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (JANGMI)
WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179
NM EAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DISORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION AS IT EMERGES INTO THE SULU SEA. THE EIR ALSO DEPICTS THE
BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTHWESTWARD OF A WEAKLY-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR LOOP, SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KNOTS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 23W IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TD 23W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL REFLECTION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. DUE TO THE UNORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKED
ACROSS THE VISAYAN ISLANDS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TD 23W HAS SLOWED
DOWN AND MOVED FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THEREFORE, THERE IS A CHANGE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST
REFLECTS THE CURRENT POSITION AND DEPICTS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING MESSAGE.
B. TD 23W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
AFTER TAU 36, TD JANGMI WILL RE-EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CHINA
SEA AND SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 23W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE
INTERACTION WITH A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE WHICH WILL BRING
IN RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. TD JINGMA WILL
FURTHER DECAY LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.





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PostPosted: Wed Dec 31, 2014 3:59 am    Post subject: Re: Jangmi (WPAC) Final Advisory Reply with quote

310300Z POSITION NEAR 8.8N 121.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 116 NM
NORTH OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO A HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TD 23W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR POSSIBLY SOONER. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 8 FEET.




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Zinnia83
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2015 6:25 pm    Post subject: Reply Reply with quote

I totally missed this... Looks like Jangmi was a big flood event for the Philippines, and bad but not so odd time of year for Tropical Cyclone Activity in the WPAC.
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