Posted: Sun Oct 07, 2012 8:06 pm Post subject: Reply
You never know, though with this season you really don’t know Question: Apparently El Nino is currently active in the Pacific, however despite relatively unfavourable conditions the Atlantic has seen its share of tropical systems, slightly more than one could expect from a normal "El Nino" episode. There is a debate in the meteorological census that in recent years, different types of El Nino conditions have been observed, each with its own unique global effects. The proposed "Modoki" El Nino (Modoki meaning similar, but different in Japanese) refers to a potential type of ENSO that arises in the Central Pacific rather than in the Eastern Pacific. Apparent effects of "Modoki" El Nino include slightly increased numbers of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, with an increased landfall rate. The Modoki El Nino may have occurred in 2002 and 2004; those Atlantic tropical cyclone seasons produced 12 and 15 named storms respectively. Now to the actual question, the strange anomalies being observed this season, can this unusual pattern be attributed to CPEN (Modoki El Nino)? If it is a possibility, then one other question could be asked. 1995, 2003 and 2005 were highly active and destructive hurricane seasons, and according to research into these weather phenomenon, these seasons had something in common, in that they occurred in post "Modoki" years. So when this El Nino trend dissipates, could the following season be a "Big One"? Perhaps 2013 or 2014? Just something to think about, not to get anybody worried....
El Nino Index regions (Modoki = 3.4)
Track map of major Atlantic hurricanes in the years 1987, 1992, 1995, 2003 and 2005. These hurricane seasons may have been "post-Modoki" years.
Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:48 am Post subject: Reply
I voted "oh who knows".... On a serious note however, my sympathies to all those affected by Sandy, its gonna be a long rode to recovery on top of all the grief’s, but no matter what hold your heads up....
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