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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Nate- Final Advisory
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Nate- Final Advisory
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:59 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

...TROPICAL STORM NATE HEADING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO IN A HURRY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 85.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:01 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

An Air Force plane fixed the center of Nate as it was moving back
over the waters of the Gulf of Honduras a few hours ago. The minimum
central pressure was estimated at 999 mb, and a combination of
flight-level and the SFMR winds yield an intensity of 40 kt. The
surface circulation is broad, and the strongest winds are within a
cyclonically curved band in the eastern semicircle. Radar from
Honduras also helped to track the center when the cyclone was over
Honduras. Nate is moving toward the very warm waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and within an environment of light shear.
On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for some strengthening through
the next 48 hours, and Nate is expected to be a Category one
hurricane by the time it is close to the U.S. coast. The interaction
with the Yucatan peninsula, however, could halt the strengthening
temporarily in the 12 to 24 hour period. Once Nate moves inland
over the U.S., weakening is anticipated and the cyclone most likely
will dissipate by the end of the forecast period.

Nate is moving toward the north-northwest or 340 degrees at 12 kt.
The cyclone is sandwiched between a large cyclonic gyre over
Central America and a developing subtropical ridge over the
western Atlantic. This flow pattern should steer Nate on the same
general north-northwest track with a marked increase in forward
speed for the next 2 days. After that time, Nate should be on the
northern edge of the subtropical high and become steered toward the
northeast by the mid-latitude westerly flow. The confidence in the
track forecast is high since most of the reliable guidance have come
to a very good agreement, and models are tightly clustered at least
for the next 2 to 3 days. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the
envelope.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is the main threat from Nate in portions of
Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides
possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and
Belize through tonight.

2. There is a possibility that Nate could be near hurricane
intensity when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula later today
bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.
A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a
portion of this area, and life-threatening flash flooding is also
possible.

3. Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast late Saturday
or Sunday morning as a hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts
from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing from
Louisiana through the western Florida Panhandle. Hurricane and
tropical storm watches, as well as a storm surge watch, are in
effect for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast, and residents in
these areas should monitor the progress of Nate, heeding any advice
given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 16.9N 85.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 19.2N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 22.7N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 26.4N 89.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 29.3N 89.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 36.0N 84.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/0600Z 40.5N 74.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:05 pm    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
100 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

...CENTER OF NATE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 85.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM NNE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Pinar del Rio
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Isle of Youth

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the
northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of
Nate.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 85.3 West. Nate is
moving toward the north-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Saturday, with a turn toward
the north and northeast expected Saturday night and Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Nate will move across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea this afternoon and move near or over the northeastern
coast of the Yucatan peninsula this evening. Nate will then move
into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight, approach the northern Gulf
coast Saturday, and then move near or over the northern Gulf coast
Saturday night or Sunday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and Nate is expected to become a hurricane by the time it
reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly to the east of the center. NOAA buoy 42056, located to the
north of the center, recently reported a 1-minute average wind of
38 mph (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 49 mph (79 km/h).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Hurricane
Hunter is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through this weekend:

Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6-10 inches, max 15 inches
Eastern El Salvador and northern to central Honduras: 3 to 5 inches,
max 8 inches
Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches
Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches

U.S. Central Gulf Coast states, eastern Tennessee Valley and
southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 12 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area in Mexico by tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected
by this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
warning area in Cuba by tonight, and are possible in the watch area
in Cuba tonight.

Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in
the hurricane warning area Saturday night, with tropical storm
conditions expected by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area by Saturday night.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
Saturday night, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday.

STORM SURGE: In the United States, the combination of a dangerous
storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the
coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights
above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border...4 to 7 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

In Mexico, a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent
islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:17 pm    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

...NATE STRENGTHENS AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN TIP
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 85.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for metropolitan New Orleans
and Lake Pontchartrain.

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect east of the Alabama/Florida
border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect east of the
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Pinar del Rio
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Isle of Youth

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the
northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of
Nate.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 85.7 West. Nate is
moving toward the north-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Saturday, with a turn toward
the north and northeast expected Saturday night and Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Nate will move near or over the
northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula this evening. Nate will
then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight, approach the
northern Gulf coast Saturday, and then move make landfall over the
northern Gulf coast Saturday night or Sunday.

Reports from NOAA buoy 42056, located just north and east of the
center, indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening
is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Nate is expected to become
a hurricane by the time it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
mainly to the east of the center. NOAA buoy 42056 recently
reported a 1-minute average wind of 56 mph (91 km/h) and a wind
gust of 69 mph (111 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
NOAA buoy 42056 reported a minimum pressure of 995.6 mb as the
center of Nate passed nearby.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

Western Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador: Lingering inflow bands
will bring additional 2-4 inches, max 6 inches.
Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.
Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches.

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area in Mexico tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected
during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the warning area in Cuba tonight, and are possible in the
watch area in Cuba tonight.

Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in
the hurricane warning area Saturday night, with tropical storm
conditions expected by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area by Saturday night.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
Saturday night, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday.

STORM SURGE: In the United States, the combination of a dangerous
storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the
coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights
above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to
6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border...5 to
8 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida...4 to 6 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

In Mexico, a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent
islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:19 pm    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 10...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

CORRECTED MAX RAINFALL AMOUNT IN KEY MESSAGES

Satellite imagery this afternoon indicates that convection
associated with Nate is becoming better organized, with a strong
convective band now wrapping about three-quarters of the way around
the center. Recent data from NOAA buoy 42056 near the center
suggest the central pressure has fallen to near 993 mb, and the
buoy just reported a 1-minute average wind of 49 kt. Based on
this, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative
50 kt. The next aircraft investigating Nate is scheduled to arrive
near 22Z.

The initial motion is north-northwestward or 340/18 kt. Nate
remains between a complex deep-layer low pressure area over the
western Gulf of Mexico and Central America and a building ridge of
high pressure over the western Atlantic. This combination should
steer the storm quickly north-northwestward for the next 24 h or so.
After that, Nate should turn northward and northeastward as it goes
around the western edge of the ridge and recurves into the
mid-latitude westerlies. The guidance remains in good agreement
with the direction of motion, and it has come into better agreement
on the speed. Thus, the new forecast track is similar to, but
slightly to the west of the the previous track, and it calls for the
center of Nate to pass near or over the northeastern tip of the
Yucatan Peninsula in about 6 h, followed by landfall on the northern
Gulf Coast around the 36-h point. It should be noted that the
ECMWF and GFS are both a little to the left of the current track.

Conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening up to
landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, and Nate is expected to make
landfall there as a hurricane. The new intensity forecast, which is
an update of the previous one, lies near the upper edge of the
intensity guidance. Given the current developments, there is still
a possibility of a period of rapid intensification as Nate crosses
the Gulf of Mexico. As alternative scenarios to the actual forecast
of steady strengthening, the ECMWF forecasts no additional
strengthening as Nate crosses the Gulf of Mexico, and the GFS/UKMET
forecast little additional strengthening until the last 12 h before
landfall.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Nate could be near hurricane intensity when it passes near or
over the Yucatan Peninsula during the next several hours bringing
direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A
tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a
portion of this area, and life-threatening flash flooding is also
possible.

2. Life-threatening storm surge flooding is likely along portions of
the northern Gulf Coast, and a storm surge warning is now in effect
from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in
Florida. Residents in these areas should heed any evacuation
instructions given by local officials.

3. A hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, and preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion in these
areas.

4. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals of 10 inches from the central Gulf Coast states into the
eastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians through this
weekend, resulting in the possibility of flash flooding in these
areas.

5. Heavy rainfall from Nate will continue to be a threat in portions
of Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud
slides possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica,
Panama, and Belize through tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 20.3N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 23.0N 87.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 26.8N 88.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 29.9N 89.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 33.1N 87.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1800Z 39.5N 78.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/1800Z 43.5N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:57 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nate Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

...HURRICANE NATE CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 87.0W
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:59 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Nate Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

An Air Force reconnaissance plane investigated Nate a couple of
hours ago and measured peak flight-level winds of 89 kt at 850 mb
to the east of the center. No hurricane force winds were reported
west of the center. The SFMR winds from that mission yielded an
initial intensity of 70 kt. Since the plane left, the satellite
presentation has changed little, so the winds remains with the same
value in this advisory. Another reconnaissance plane is currently
approaching Nate.

The outflow is well established suggesting that the shear is low,
while the atmospheric conditions favor some additional
strengthening. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for some slight
increase in the winds, however, the SHIPS/LGEM models forecast Nate
to be a little bit stronger just before landfall. After landfall,
weakening is anticipated and Nate is forecast to dissipate in 96
hours or sooner.

Nate is moving rapidly toward the north-northwest at about 19 kt.
The hurricane is being steered by the flow between a large cyclonic
gyre over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and a developing mid-level
ridge over the western Atlantic. This pattern should continue to
force Nate on a general north-northwest fast track for the next 24
hours. After that time, the hurricane will recurve northeastward
with additional increase in forward speed as it encounters the
mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast has not changed much
from the previous one and is and is very close the HFIP corrected
consensus HCCA. This model has been very skillful this season.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Life-threatening storm surge flooding is likely along portions
of the northern Gulf Coast, and a storm surge warning is in effect
from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in
Florida. Residents in these areas should heed any evacuation
instructions given by local officials.

2. A hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, and preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion in these
areas.

3. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central
Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and
southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential
for flash flooding in these areas.

4. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also
bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals of 6 inches across the
Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians Sunday into Monday,
which will also increase the risk for flash flooding across these
locations.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 24.5N 87.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 27.3N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 30.4N 88.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 33.8N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0600Z 37.0N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/0600Z 43.0N 70.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 5:47 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
700 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND THAT
NATE IS A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 88.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nate was located
near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 88.0 West. Nate is moving toward
the north-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general fast
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north is forecast on Sunday morning, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast thereafter. On the forecast track, the center of
Nate will move across the central and northern Gulf of Mexico today
and will make landfall along the central U.S. Gulf coast tonight.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph
(135 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
possible before Nate makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunters is
986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are
expected in the hurricane warning area tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin by this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
tonight and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical
storm watch area tonight and Sunday.

STORM SURGE: In the United States, the combination of a dangerous
storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the
coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights
above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to
6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border...5 to
9 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6
ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.
Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches.

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible beginning later
today over parts of the central Gulf Coast region.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
western Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 10:44 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nate Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

...NATE STRENGTHENING AND NOW EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE
AT LANDFALL ON THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 88.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect east of the
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida.

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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 11:00 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Nate Discussion Number 13...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

Corrected 24 kt motion to 23 kt motion in third paragraph

Nate is showing improved organization in satellite imagery this
morning, with the formation of a symmetric central dense overcast
with cloud tops colder than -80C. In addition, Air Force Reserve
and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have reported a central pressure
near 984 mb inside a 25 n mi wide eye that is starting to form under
the overcast. The planes have reported 700-mb flight level winds of
up to 88 kt and surface wind estimates from the SFMR instrument
between 75-85 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
increased to a possibly conservative 80 kt.

Conditions appear favorable for Nate to continue strengthening for
the next 12 h or so before it encounters land and increasing shear.
The new intensity forecast thus follows the SHIPS model in showing
Nate become a Category 2 hurricane before landfall on the central
Gulf Coast. After landfall, Nate should weaken rapidly as it moves
through the eastern United States. The cyclone is now forecast to
become extratropical near the 72 hr point and dissipate completely
by 96 h.

The initial motion is toward the north-northwest at a very rapid 23
kt. The hurricane is being steered by the flow between a large
cyclonic gyre over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and a mid-level
ridge over the western Atlantic. In addition, a mid-latitude trough
in the westerlies is moving eastward through the central United
States. This pattern is expected to cause Nate to turn northward
during the next 12-18 h as it rounds the western end of the ridge,
followed by a turn toward the northeast as it enters the westerlies.
The new forecast track is nudged a little to the left of the
previous track, and it lies near the center of the tightly clustered
guidance.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Nate is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge flooding
near and well east of where the center makes landfall, and a storm
surge warning is in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the
Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida. Maximum flooding of 7 to 11
feet above ground level is expected in portions of southeastern
Louisiana and along the Mississippi coast. Residents in these areas
should immediately heed any evacuation instructions given by local
officials.

2. Nate is forecast to reach Category 2 intensity before landfall.
A hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the northern Gulf
Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, with the strongest winds expected
to occur primarily to the east of the center. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion in these
areas, as tropical storm conditions will first arrive in the warning
area this afternoon.

3. Nate's fast forward speed after landfall will bring tropical-
storm-force winds well inland across portions of the southeastern
U.S. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for portions
of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, and western Georgia.

4. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central
Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and
southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for
flash flooding in these areas.

5. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also
bring 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals of 6 inches across
the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which
will increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 26.6N 88.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 29.1N 89.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 32.1N 88.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 35.7N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1200Z 39.2N 80.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1200Z 44.5N 67.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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