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Today: Isolated showers and thunderstorms after 8am.  Increasing clouds, with a high near 84. Light east northeast wind becoming northeast 5 to 9 mph in the morning.  Chance of precipitation is 20%.
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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Nate- Final Advisory
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Nate- Final Advisory
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13090
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 6:14 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

NWS TAMPA

during the weekend and into early next week models continue to
indicate the potential for an area of low pressure to develop over
the northwest Caribbean with this low (possibly tropical in nature)
then moving north into the Gulf of Mexico. Models continue to differ
significantly with the evolution of this system showing various
areas of low pressure over the Gulf or Atlantic waters, so forecast
confidence in any one solution remains quite low at this time and we
will need to continue to closely monitor this system and model
output the remainder of the week. Even though model confidence is
low, it does appear that deep tropical moisture (PW`s 2+ inches)
streaming into the area on a deep layered southeast to southerly
wind flow will support some wet weather with scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms expected along with the potential
for some locally heavy rainfall in some locations.
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 6:23 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

NWS MIAMI


Main concern through the week will be heavy rainfall with convection
that may lead to flooding. With an unsettled weather pattern and
higher than normal tides any heavy rainfall that falls in coastal
areas will be unable to drain if it does occur near high tides.


LONG TERM/ FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND: There is quite a bit of
uncertainty in the models as we move into the weekend regarding the
monsoonal gyre, where a low pressure is expected to form in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea in the next few days and drift into the
southern Gulf of Mexico. NHC currently has a 30% chance of
development of a tropical cyclone over the next five days. Models
are trending towards turning the winds south southwesterly across
South Florida bringing more deep tropical moisture to the area.

Will have to continue to monitor models trends and evolution of
this feature in the coming days. Current forecast keeps the weather
pattern wet through the weekend. Heavy rainfall with higher than
normal tides leading to flooding will continue to be a concern along
both coast across South Florida through the weekend.
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
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Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 6:44 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

NWS TALLAHASSEE


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

While the GFS and EURO differ on several of the details, there is
general agreement between the models that a weak tropical low
will move into the eastern Gulf on Friday followed by another
potential tropical system developing near the Yucatan Peninsula
early in the weekend. The EURO is more bullish and further east with
this feature lifting a sub-1000mb surface low northward along
with a surge of deep tropical moisture across the eastern Gulf.
The EURO takes the low into the far western Florida Panhandle
Sunday night/Monday. The GFS takes a weaker low (1003mb) into
southeast LA Sunday afternoon. This will be monitored closely and
a lot can change with this forecast so stay tuned. For now, we
will show an upward trend in rain chances but not as high as would
be expected should a tropical system impact our area.
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 11:55 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad
area of low pressure has formed over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for
development, and this system could become a tropical depression
within the next few days while it drifts northwestward to northward
across the northwestern Caribbean and adjacent land areas and into
the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Regardless of development, this
system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central
America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.



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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:11 pm    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Invest 90L
12.0N, 81.0W, Winds 25 kt, Pressure 1008 MB.
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:57 pm    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

The GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NAVGEM and NAM forecast models all develop a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean and bring it north into the Gulf by the weekend.
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 1:16 pm    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 1:19 pm    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EDT TUE 03 OCTOBER 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z OCTOBER 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-124 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS........(CHANGED)
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF NICARAGUAN COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 04/1400Z
D. 11.5N 82.5W
E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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ccstorms
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Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 7:18 pm    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with the broad
area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
is beginning to show some signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are forecast to steadily become more conducive for
development, and this system is expected to become a tropical
depression within the next few days. The large disturbance should
move slowly northwestward to northward across or near the eastern
portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, move into the northwestern
Caribbean Sea on Thursday or Friday, and emerge over the southern
Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras
should monitor the progress of this system over the next couple of
days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance Wednesday afternoon, if necessary.
Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13090
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 3:00 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea continue to
show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast
to steadily become more conducive for development, and this system
is expected to become a tropical depression within the next couple
of days. The large disturbance should move slowly northwestward
across or near the eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, move
into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and emerge over
the southern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Interests in Nicaragua,
Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system over the next few days. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of
development, this system will likely produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

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