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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Maria- Final Advisory
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Maria- Final Advisory
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:13 am    Post subject: Re: Maria- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Maria has reported
700-mb flight-level winds of 107 kt in the southeastern eyewall,
with surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave
Radiometer between 75-80 kt. The plane also reported that the
central pressure has risen to 948 mb inside a 30 n mi wide eye.
Based on these data, the initial intensity is nudged downward to
95 kt, and it is possible that this is a bit generous.

The initial motion is 355/8, with Maria currently being steered by
the flow between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and a cut-off
low/trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern
United States. A general motion toward the north or north-
northwest should continue for the next 3 days or so, with some
decrease in forward speed as a mid-latitude westerly ridge moves
through the New England states to the north of the hurricane. After
72 h, the westerlies move south and erode the subtropical ridge,
which should allow Maria to recurve to the northeast. The track
guidance supports this scenario, although there is some
disagreement on the timing and the location of the recurvature.
The new forecast track lies a little to the north and west of the
previous track in best agreement with the HFIP Corrected consensus
model. However, the 72 and 96 h points lie a little to the east of
the forecasts of the GFS and ECMWF models. Regardless of where the
recurvature occurs, Maria is a large cyclone and the associated
tropical storm force winds could eventually reach a portion of the
North Carolina coast.

Fluctuations in intensity appear likely during the next 24-36 h as
Maria remains over warm water and in an environment of light or
moderate shear. After that time, the hurricane is likely to
encounter the colder water left by Hurricane Jose, which should
cause a weakening trend. The new intensity forecast follows the
overall trend of the guidance and, except for a downward nudge at
12 and 24 h, is similar to the previous forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's forecast track continues to be northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the coast next week. Interests along the
coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the
progress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for part of this area later today.

2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the
southeastern United States and are expected to reach the
Mid-Atlantic coast today. These swells will likely cause dangerous
surf and rip currents at the beach through much of next week. For
more information, please monitor information from your local
National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 27.9N 72.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 28.9N 72.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 30.1N 73.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 31.2N 73.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 32.1N 73.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 34.0N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 35.0N 72.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 36.0N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 4:35 am    Post subject: Re: Maria- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

...MARIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 73.0W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the North Carolina
coast from Cape Lookout to Duck, including the Albemarle and Pamlico
Sounds.



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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 4:37 am    Post subject: Re: Maria- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

A combination of conventional satellite imagery, scatterometer
data, and reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Maria is weakening and undergoing major changes in structure as
it encounters the cool water left by Hurricane Jose. Satellite
imagery shows that the low-level center has become exposed to the
northwest of the remaining central convection, with some outer
convective banding remaining mainly in the eastern semicircle. The
scatterometer and aircraft data suggests that the inner wind core
has collapsed, with no hurricane force winds occurring in the
western semicircle. Based on the combination of these data, the
initial intensity is lowered to a possibly generous 70 kt, and the
initial and forecast wind radii have been significantly changed.

The initial motion is 355/6. Maria is being steered by the flow
between a mid- to upper-level cyclone over the southeastern U.S. and
the subtropical ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. A mid-level
ridge moving eastward across the northeastern U.S. will likely cause
Maria's forward motion to slow some more over the next couple of
days. After that time, the mid-latitude westerlies are expected to
encroach on Maria, causing it to turn sharply to the east-
northeast and accelerate. The guidance is in good agreement on this
track scenario, and the new forecast track, which lies between the
ECMWF and the various consensus models, is an update of the
previous forecast.

The environment of cool sea surface temperatures and moderate shear
should keep Maria weakening. However, it unclear just how fast it
will weaken, as the guidance has been generally forecasting a slower
weakening than has actually occurred. The new intensity forecast
will follow the trend of the guidance and the previous forecast of
a gradual weakening, with Maria now forecast to weaken below
hurricane status after 36 h. However, an alternate scenario is
that the cyclone continues weakening at a faster rate and thus
winds up weaker than the new intensity forecast.

Maria is a large cyclone, so even if it weakens to a tropical storm
and remains well offshore it is expected to bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the North Carolina coast during the next
couple of days.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the coast beginning Tuesday. A Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued for a portion of the coast of North
Carolina.

2. Storm surge flooding especially along the sound side of the
North Carolina Outer Banks is possible beginning Tuesday, and a
Storm Surge Watch has been issued for a portion of the North
Carolina Outer Banks.

3. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the
southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid-
Atlantic coast today. These swells will likely cause dangerous surf
and rip currents at beaches in these areas through much of the
week. For more information, please monitor information from your
local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 30.6N 73.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 31.4N 73.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 32.5N 73.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 33.5N 73.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 34.3N 73.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 35.5N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 37.0N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 40.0N 56.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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ccstorms
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Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 9:38 am    Post subject: Re: Maria- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 72.9W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

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Posts: 13143
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 9:40 am    Post subject: Re: Maria- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Satellite and aircraft data indicate that Maria's structure has
changed considerably since yesterday. Deep convection is primarily
confined to the eastern semicircle of the circulation and the radius
of maximum winds has significantly increased. After not finding many
SFMR winds over 60 kt during the overnight flights, the latest Air
Force Reserve Aircraft measured SFMR winds of 65-70 kt about 90 n mi
from the center over the eastern portion of the circulation. As a
result, the initial wind speed is set at 70 kt, a slight
readjustment from the 1200 UTC estimate indicated in the
intermediate advisory. The 50-kt and 64-kt wind radii have also been
adjusted outward primarily over the eastern semicircle based on the
aircraft data.

The intensity forecast reasoning remains the same as that in the
previous advisory. Cool sea surface temperatures, moderate westerly
shear, and dry air are expected to cause gradual weakening over the
next couple of days. The global model guidance suggests Maria will
remain a strong tropical cyclone as it accelerates northeastward
later in the forecast period. Therefore, the NHC forecast is a
little higher than the statistical guidance at those times.

Maria continues to move northward or 360/6 kt. Although Maria is
being steered northward between a mid- to upper-level low over the
southeastern United States and a subtropical ridge over the
southwestern Atlantic, the hurricane's forward motion should remain
quite slow as it is currently being impeded by a mid-level ridge
over the northeastern United States. A large mid-latitude trough is
forecast to move across the Great Lakes region and into the
northeast United States by the end of the week. This feature should
cause Maria to accelerate east-northeastward to northeastward after
72 hours. The track guidance is in excellent agreement through 48
hours, but there are some differences in Maria's forward speed after
that time. The NHC forecast track is near the middle of the guidance
envelope through 48 h and is in between the ECMWF and various
consensus models later in the period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the North Carolina coast beginning Tuesday,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the
North Carolina Outer Banks, is possible beginning on Tuesday, and a
Storm Surge Watch has been issued for portions of eastern North
Carolina.

3. Swells from Maria are occurring along the coast of the
southeastern United States and will be increasing along the
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts today. These swells
will likely cause dangerous surf and rip currents at beaches in
these areas through much of the week. For more information, please
monitor information from your local National Weather Service office
at www.weather.gov.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 31.2N 72.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 31.8N 73.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 32.9N 73.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 33.8N 73.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 34.7N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 35.7N 71.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 37.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 42.0N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

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ccstorms
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Posts: 13143
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 26, 2017 4:53 am    Post subject: Re: Maria- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

...MARIA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 73.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES

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Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Tue Sep 26, 2017 4:55 am    Post subject: Re: Maria- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Maria is feeling the effects of the cool sea surface temperatures
left in the wake of Hurricane Jose. Satellite imagery shows that
the convective pattern is gradually losing organization, with the
remaining convection in a cluster to the southeast of the center
and in bands well to the east of the center. In addition, the
aircraft-reported central pressure has risen to 970 mb. While there
have been no observations of hurricane-force winds from the Stepped
Frequency Microwave Radiometer on the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
currently in the cyclone, it is likely that they still exist in
areas east of the center where the airplane has not yet sampled.
The initial intensity is lowered to a somewhat uncertain 65 kt based
mainly on the rising central pressure since the last advisory.

The combination of the cool water and moderate shear should cause
Maria to gradually weaken during the forecast period, with the
system now expected to weaken to a tropical storm in less than 24 h.
Near the 120 h point, the cyclone is expected to merge with a
frontal system and become extratropical. The new intensity forecast
is an update of the previous advisory.

The initial motion remains 360/6, with Maria moving northward on the
western side of the subtropical ridge. A mid- to upper-level ridge
over the northeastern United States to the north of the cyclone is
likely to keep the motion slow for the next 36-48 h. After that,
the mid-latitude westerlies are forecast to move southward across
the northeastern United States and break down the subtropical
ridge. This should lead to Maria turning east-northeastward and
accelerating after 48 h. The track guidance is in good agreement
with this scenario, and the new forecast track is close to the
previous track until 120 h, where it is nudged a bit to the south.
The track is also close to the center of the guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast for the next 36-48 hours, and it is likely that some
direct impacts will occur along portions of the North Carolina coast
beginning later today, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the
North Carolina Outer Banks, is expected beginning later today, and a
Storm Surge Watch has been issued for portions of eastern North
Carolina.

3. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of
the United States from Florida through southern New England. These
swells are also affecting Bermuda, Puerto Rico, the northern coast
of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 32.9N 73.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 33.7N 73.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 34.6N 73.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 35.4N 72.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 35.8N 71.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 37.0N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 41.0N 53.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 48.0N 35.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 26, 2017 9:23 am    Post subject: Re: Maria- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 73.1W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Ocracoke Inlet to Cape
Hatteras.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 5:10 am    Post subject: Re: Maria- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...MARIA CRAWLING NORTHWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 72.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 5:12 am    Post subject: Re: Maria- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017

Maria has changed little in structure since the last advisory. A
band of deep convection attempted to wrap around the western side
of the circulation, but that has since dissipated due to continued
shear and dry air. The initial intensity remains 60 kt based on
surface winds measured by the SFMR on the previous reconnaissance
flight. Maria will likely be moving over some warm and cold eddies
associated with the Gulf Stream during the next 2 to 3 days, and
with vertical shear expected to gradually decrease during that
time, only slow weakening is anticipated. After day 3, vertical
shear increases significantly, and Maria is expected to complete
extratropical transition by day 4. The global models then indicate
that the low will be absorbed by a larger extratropical low over
the northeastern Atlantic by day 5.

Earlier reconnaissance fixes indicated that Maria's center was
jumping around a bit, but its average motion is estimated to be
slowly northward, or 005 degrees at 4 kt. Maria is moving around
the western periphery of a mid-level ridge located over the central
Atlantic, and it should enter the mid-latitude westerlies in about
36 hours, at which point it is expected to accelerate northeastward
across the north Atlantic. Most of the model spread continues to
be in the along-track direction, highlighted by the faster GFS and
HWRF models and the slower ECMWF model. As was the case before,
the updated NHC track forecast splits the difference between these
scenarios and remains close to the multi-model consensus aids.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is forecast to slowly move away from the U.S. east coast
during the next day or so. However, tropical storm conditions are
expected to continue along portions of the North Carolina coast
through much of today.

2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the
North Carolina Outer Banks, is expected, and a storm surge warning
and watch are in effect for portions of eastern North Carolina.

3. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of
the United States, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the
Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 35.1N 72.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 35.7N 72.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 36.2N 71.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 36.5N 69.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 37.0N 65.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 40.5N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 47.5N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

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