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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Jose- Final Advisory
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Jose- Final Advisory
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:53 pm    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter made two passes through
Jose's center and found that the central pressure has dropped to
973 mb. A 700-mb flight-level wind of 82 kt was measured in an
outer band to the northeast of the center, but the highest observed
SFMR wind was 65 kt. Based on these data, Jose's initial intensity
is held at 70 kt. The lack of significant intensification in spite
of the lower central pressure is probably due to an expansion of the
wind field, which was observed by the reconnaissance aircraft.

The aircraft fixes suggest that the center, or at least the
mid-level center, has been reforming or meandering. Smoothing
through the fixes suggests that Jose is moving slowly northward, or
360/5 kt. This motion, with some acceleration, is expected during
the next 3 days while Jose moves around the western periphery of
the subtropical ridge. The cyclone is then expected to turn
northeastward and accelerate by the end of the forecast period when
it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast has
shifted slightly eastward to account for the updated initial
position, and it lies down the middle of the guidance envelope. It
should be noted that a few models, such as the ECMWF and UKMET, lie
west of the forecast track, which does not rule out the possibility
that Jose may move closer to the U.S. east coast than shown in the
official forecast.

Jose has a short period of time, perhaps 24 hours or so, when the
shear remains steady and there is an opportunity for some slight
strengthening. However, the shear is expected to increase over 30
kt after 24 hours, which should cause Jose to gradually weaken. The
hurricane is likely to move north of the Gulf Stream in about 72
hours, and the official intensity forecast calls for Jose to weaken
to a tropical storm at that time, and continue weakening as it moves
eastward away from New England.

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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:13 am    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

...JOSE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER NORTHWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 71.7W
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this
system. Tropical storm watches may be needed for portions of this
area during the next day or two.



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:25 am    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 52A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING
JOSE...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 71.2W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:56 am    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 71.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 510 MI...815 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Watch Hill, Rhode
Island, to Hull, Massachusetts, including Block Island, Martha's
Vineyard, and Nantucket.
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:57 am    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Satellite images indicate that Jose is losing some tropical
characteristics. The cloud pattern of the hurricane is asymmetric
with much of the central convection and convective bands confined to
the north of the center. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters
have found that Jose is weaker, with maximum flight-level winds of
78 kt and maximum SFMR surface winds of 58 kt observed. Based on
these data, the initial wind speed is lowered to 65 kt.

Jose should remain over warm Gulf Stream waters during the next 24
hours, but it will also be in an environment of strong
south-southwesterly shear, so little change in strength is expected
during that time. Shortly thereafter, the hurricane is forecast to
cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and move into a
progressively drier air mass. These unfavorable conditions should
cause a slow weakening trend and lead to post-tropical transition,
which is now expected to be complete by day 3. The NHC intensity
forecast is a little lower than the previous one in the short term
to account for the slightly lower initial wind speed.

The hurricane has been wobbling around, but the general motion has
been northward at 8 kt. A mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic
should continue to steer Jose northward at about the same forward
speed during the next day or two. Thereafter, a trough currently
over central Canada is expected to cause Jose to turn eastward in
the 2 to 3 day time frame. The trough is then expected to lift out,
leaving Jose in weak steering currents and causing the cyclone to
drift southward by the end of the forecast period. Only minor
changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this
prediction lies near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore
of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some
direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm
warning has been issued for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of
the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod. Any deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from
Delaware to southern New England, where a tropical storm watch is in
effect.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days. Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New
England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long
Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast
Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. While the
risk of flooding is currently limited in scope, any deviation to the
left of the forecast track, could bring heavier and more widespread
rainfall to southern New England, Long Island, New York City, and
New Jersey. If this deviation were to occur, the risk of urban
flash flooding and some river flooding would increase.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 33.9N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 35.1N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 36.7N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 38.2N 70.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 39.4N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 40.0N 67.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 22/1200Z 39.1N 68.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 23/1200Z 38.5N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:02 pm    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 53A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

...JOSE PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 71.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:36 pm    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 54
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

...JOSE HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 71.1W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 6:15 am    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 56A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...JOSE STILL A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 71.6W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 4:46 pm    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 58
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...HURRICANE JOSE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.2N 71.3W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 5:55 am    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 60A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...JOSE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG
A LARGE PORTION OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.8N 70.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
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