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Jose- Final Advisory
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:07 pm    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2017

...JOSE EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN BY THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 66.6W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES



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PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:55 pm    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017

...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST FROM JOSE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 67.3W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:03 am    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017

...JOSE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 68.7W
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM NE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES



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PostPosted: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:05 pm    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017

...AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE IF JOSE IS A
HURRICANE AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 69.4W
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM NE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:54 pm    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

...JOSE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 70.3W
ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this
system. A Tropical Storm Watch may be needed for a portion of the
coast of North Carolina on Saturday.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 70.3 West. Jose is moving toward
the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is
expected today, follow by a turn to the north-northwest by late
Saturday and toward the north on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through
Saturday, with weakening possibly beginning on late Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The minimum central pressure as estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. For more information, please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:56 pm    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that Jose has become a
hurricane again, with a blend of the flight-level data and SFMR
values giving an initial intensity of 65 kt. Further strengthening
is possible over the next day or two while the hurricane remains
over warm waters with light-to-moderate shear. By Sunday,
southwesterly shear is forecast to increase, along with a gradual
cooling of the SSTs. These conditions should promote some
weakening of Jose, although all of the guidance are showing a
fairly large hurricane for the next several days. The official
forecast is close to the previous one for the first couple of days,
then is blended downward to the latest model consensus.

Jose continues moving northwestward, now at about 9 kt. The
hurricane should turn north-northwestward tomorrow and northward by
Sunday while it is steered around a western Atlantic ridge. Jose is
then forecast to turn north-northeastward by Wednesday as it moves
along the northwestern side of that ridge. The model guidance is in
relatively good agreement on the forecast track, but the ECMWF is
slower than the rest of the guidance. With the UKMET and its
ensemble speeding up from 6 hours ago, the official forecast is
nudged toward the model consensus at long range, but is still on the
slow side, resulting in little overall change to the previous
forecast. It is still important to note that the average NHC track
errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively.

While most of the guidance keep the center of Jose offshore for the
next few days, all of the global models show the hurricane becoming
rather large by late this weekend as it moves to the east of North
Carolina. For that reason, a tropical storm watch may be needed
for a portion of the North Carolina coast tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the
mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and
rip current conditions.

2. Although the center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the
North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-force winds are
expected to extend well west of the center and could approach the
North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday. Farther north along the U.S.
east coast, the chance of some direct impacts from Jose is
increasing, but it is too soon to determine their exact magnitude
and location. Interests along the U.S. east coast from North
Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through
the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 27.1N 70.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 27.8N 71.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 28.8N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 29.9N 72.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 31.4N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 33.9N 72.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 36.7N 71.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 40.0N 69.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:58 am    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 44...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Corrected headline

...JOSE MOVING STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 71.8W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 16, 2017 4:00 am    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

NOAA buoy 41047 has been very helpful in determining the position
and central pressure of Jose this morning. The center of Jose
passed just north of the buoy around 0500 UTC, and a surface
pressure of 986 mb with 20-30 kt of winds was measured. Since the
buoy did not sample the stronger northeast quadrant of the storm,
the initial intensity has been held at 70 kt. Another
reconnaissance flight later today will provide a better estimate of
the max winds.

There is some indication of northeasterly shear inhibiting the
outflow of Jose, which is restricted in the northwest quadrant.
Since it appears to be negatively affecting the cyclone, the shear
may inhibit any more substantial intensification. The intensity
guidance is a little lower than before, so the new NHC forecast has
been lowered slightly, and is now close to the intensity consensus
throughout the forecast.

Jose has moved just a little to the southwest of the expected track,
and the initial motion remains 305/8 kt. However, Jose is still
expected to begin turning toward the north later today, so no
significant changes were needed for the early part of the forecast.
More importantly, the GFS and ECMWF have met in the middle of their
previous solutions, and have come into much better agreement on the
forward speed of the hurricane beyond day 2. The new track forecast
is very close to a 50/50 blend of the GFS and ECMWF. Although
confidence in the track forecast is a little higher due to the model
agreement, it is still important to note that the average NHC track
errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively.

While the official track forecast keeps the center of Jose offshore
for the next few days, all of the global models show the hurricane
becoming rather large by late this weekend as it moves to the east
of North Carolina. For that reason, a tropical storm watch may be
needed for a portion of the North Carolina coast later today.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the
mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and
rip current conditions.

2. Although the center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the
North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-force winds are
expected to extend well west of the center and could approach the
North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday. Farther north along the U.S.
east coast, the chance of some direct impacts from Jose is
increasing, but it is too soon to determine their exact magnitude
and location. Interests along the U.S. east coast from North
Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through
the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 27.9N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 28.6N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 29.7N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 31.2N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 32.9N 72.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 35.8N 71.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 39.5N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 41.0N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:31 am    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...JOSE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 72.2W
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:51 pm    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...JOSE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH 80-MPH WINDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 71.9W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES

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