Capeweather.com | Southwest Florida Weather
 Click here to register!Home | Advertise | Forum | Live Webcams | Contact Us | Tell a Friend | Your Account  

Lee County Forecast
This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 99. North northeast wind around 8 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Scattered
Showers

Tonight

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. East northeast wind 5 to 9 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Scattered
Showers then
Partly Cloudy
Hi 92 °FLo 74 °F
Extended Forecast
Florida Weather Forecast

Southwest Florida Webcams

Main Navigation
Weather
· Home
· Current Conditions
· Storm Warnings
· Station Graphs
· Storm Fronts
· Temperature Map
· Station History
· Drought Index
· Storm Reports
· Rainfall Estimates
· Fire Graphs

Doppler Radar
· Lee County
· Charlotte County
· Collier County
· Hendry County
· Desoto County
· Glades County
· Sarasota County
· Manatee County
· Hillsborough County
· Pinellas County
· Pasco County
· Southwest Florida
· Florida
· State Radars
· National

Satellite
· South Florida
· North Florida
· Regional
· National

Forecast
· Extended
· Marine
· Discussion
· Florida Forecast
· Hazardous Outlook
· Wave Heights
· Fire

Lightning
· Live
· Tracker
· Loop
· Network
· WASP
· WASP Loop
· 3 Hour Forecast

Tropical Weather
· Hurricane Tracker
· Tropical Satellite
· Sea Temperature
· Discussion
· Buoy Data
· Tracking Tools
· Monthly Summary

Moon and Tides
· Tides
· Moon Phase

Live Products

Fishing Reports

Local News

Other Info

  
Capeweather.com | Southwest Florida Weather: Forums

 
Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Irma
 Forum FAQForum FAQ   SearchSearch   UsergroupsUsergroups  SmartFeedSmartFeed   ProfileProfile   Check your private messagesCheck your private messages   Log inLog in 

Irma
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 11, 12, 13  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather Forum Index -> 2017 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Discussion
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
ccstorms
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12899
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:56 am    Post subject: Re: Irma Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

...HURRICANE IRMA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 33.8W
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1845 MI...2975 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 33.8 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is
forecast through early Friday, followed by a generally westward
motion on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Irma is forecast to become a major hurricane by
tonight and is expected to be an extremely dangerous hurricane for
the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
ccstorms
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12899
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:58 am    Post subject: Re: Irma Reply with quote

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

Satellite imagines indicate that Irma is rapidly intensifying.
Very deep convection has formed in the central dense overcast,
which is now displaying a small and clearing eye. Dvorak estimates
were up to 77 kt at 1200 UTC, and since the cloud pattern continues
to quickly become more organized, the initial wind speed is set to
85 kt.

Irma has moved somewhat south of and slower than all of the model
guidance since yesterday. Consequently, it stayed longer over the
warmer ocean temperatures away from the drier air to the north,
possibly allowing the rapid strengthening. Irma should move over
cooler waters tomorrow with some increase in mid-level dry air, so
hopefully the hurricane's intensity will level off by then. In a
few days, the hurricane will be moving over warmer waters with light
shear shown by all of the model guidance. This should promote
further strengthening of Irma, and the NHC forecast shows an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane next week, similar to the
solutions provided by the HWRF and the ECMWF models. The intensity
forecast is raised considerably from the previous one due to initial
trends, and is on the high end of the guidance at long range.

The hurricane has turned west-northwestward at about 9 kt. This
motion should continue for the next day or so before a ridge builds
over the central Atlantic Ocean. This ridge should force Irma to
turn westward by the weekend, and west-southwestward early next
week. Guidance continues to trend southward, following the trend of
the ECMWF model starting yesterday. Given the strength of the ridge
and depth of the tropical cyclone, there are no obvious reasons to
discount the anomalous west-southwestward motion seen in most of the
guidance. Little change is made to the track forecast in short
range, but the track is shifted southward and westward at long
range, though not as far southwest as the overnight ECMWF and ECMWF
ensemble models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 16.9N 33.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 17.5N 35.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 18.0N 37.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 18.2N 39.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 18.1N 41.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 17.0N 46.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 16.0N 51.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 16.0N 55.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
CONVECTIVEMIKE
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: Jul 19, 2007
Posts: 1044
Location: Boynton Beach FL

PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:32 am    Post subject: Re: Irma Reply with quote

Just saw this up on WeatherUnderground
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message AIM Address Yahoo Messenger MSN Messenger
ccstorms
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12899
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:57 pm    Post subject: Re: Irma Reply with quote

NHC UPDATE

17.1N, 34.3W, Winds 100 KT, Pressure 967 MB, HURRICANE

That's a Cat 3. 115 MPH.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
ccstorms
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12899
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:14 pm    Post subject: Re: Irma Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

...IRMA BECOMES A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 34.8W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1780 MI...2865 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 34.8 West. Irma is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue today, followed by a westward turn on Saturday,
and a west-southwestward motion by Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength,
both up and down, are possible, but Irma is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane for several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
ccstorms
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12899
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:17 pm    Post subject: Re: Irma Reply with quote

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

Irma has become an impressive hurricane with intense eyewall
convection surrounding a small eye. Satellite estimates continue to
rapidly rise, and the Dvorak classifications from both TAFB & SAB
support an initial wind speed of 100 kt. This is a remarkable 50-kt
increase from yesterday at this time.

Microwave and satellite data suggest that an eyewall replacement
cycle could be starting. This isn't surprising given how small the
eye is, and will probably be the first of many eyewall cycles for
this hurricane. Overall, Irma should be in a low-shear environment
for several days, with the intensity controlled by eyewall cycles
and the moderately warm SSTs along the path. Thus the forecast
intensity is leveled off for the next 2 days. After the weekend,
Irma should be moving over much warmer water, with SSTs forecast to
be 29C at the end of the period. All indications are for Irma to be
strengthening by the end of the forecast period, with the NHC
prediction adjusted slightly upward from the previous one, in line
with the extremely low pressures forecast by the global and regional
hurricane models at that time.

Irma continues moving west-northwestward, now at about 10 kt.
There has been no change to the forecast philosophy, with the
hurricane likely to turn westward and west-southwestward over the
next few days due to a building ridge over the central Atlantic. At
long range, however, model guidance is not in good agreement on the
strength of the ridge, resulting in some significant north-south
differences in the global models. I am inclined to stay on the
southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent
forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble. In addition, the strongest
members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the
consensus, giving some confidence in that approach.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 17.3N 34.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 17.8N 36.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 18.2N 38.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 18.3N 40.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 17.9N 42.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 16.8N 47.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 16.0N 52.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 16.5N 56.5W 120 KT 140 MPH


Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
CONVECTIVEMIKE
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: Jul 19, 2007
Posts: 1044
Location: Boynton Beach FL

PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:18 pm    Post subject: Re: Irma Reply with quote

Was at a Publix on this side and the manager is expecting 3 truckloads of overstock getting ready for the rush.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message AIM Address Yahoo Messenger MSN Messenger
ccstorms
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12899
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:09 am    Post subject: Re: Irma Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2017

...IRMA HOLDING STEADY WITH 115-MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 36.5W
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1665 MI...2680 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
ccstorms
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12899
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:12 am    Post subject: Re: Irma Reply with quote

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2017

After rapidly strengthening on Thursday, Irma appears to have
leveled off in intensity. The eye of the hurricane remains
evident in satellite images, but it has occasionally been cloud
filled. The deep convection in the eyewall has been fairly
symmetric, and the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB have held
steady at 5.5/102 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind
speed remains 100 kt for this advisory.

Although Irma is in a very low wind shear environment, the hurricane
is moving over only marginally warm SSTs and is in close proximity
to dry air. The models respond to these conditions by showing
little change in strength or some weakening during the next couple
of days. Thereafter, Irma is expected to move into a more favorable
thermodynamic environment while remaining in low wind shear
conditions, which should allow the hurricane to intensify. It
should be noted that major hurricanes like Irma often undergo
eyewall replacements that can cause fluctuations in strength, but
unfortunately these internal dynamics can not be forecast with any
accuracy. The NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous
one and lies near the high end of the model guidance.

Irma is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt to the south of a
subtropical high pressure system. This high is forecast to
strengthen and build westward during the next few days, which
should cause the hurricane to turn to the west in about 24 hours and
then move to the west-southwest over the weekend. By the end of the
forecast period, Irma is expected to move on the south side of the
high, which should cause the storm to turn back to the west or
west-northwest. Although the models agree on this overall scenario,
they differ slightly on the strength and orientation of the high and
the intensity of Irma. These differences have caused a fair amount
of north-south spread. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope through day 4, but leans toward the
southern end at day 5, in favor of the ECMWF and HCCA models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 18.2N 36.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 18.5N 38.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 18.4N 40.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 18.2N 42.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 17.6N 45.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 16.5N 49.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 16.5N 53.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 17.5N 58.0W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
ccstorms
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12899
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:12 pm    Post subject: Re: Irma Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2017

...IRMA FORECAST TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 37.8W
ABOUT 1580 MI...2540 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather Forum Index -> 2017 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Discussion All times are GMT - 6 Hours
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 11, 12, 13  Next
Page 3 of 13

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You can vote in polls in this forum

Powered by phpBB 2.0.10 © 2001 phpBB Group
phpBB port v2.1 based on Tom Nitzschner's phpbb2.0.6 upgraded to phpBB 2.0.4 standalone was developed and tested by:
ArtificialIntel, ChatServ, mikem,
sixonetonoffun and Paul Laudanski (aka Zhen-Xjell).

Version 2.1 by Nuke Cops © 2003 http://www.nukecops.com

  
Hurricane Tracker

Hurricane Tracker
Hurricane Tracker
2017 Storm Tracker Forum


Atlantic Storms
Jose
Lee
Maria


Sponsored Links

Recent Forum Posts

New Post
Maria
Posted by
ccstorms on Sep 21, 2017 at 11:10:34 AM


New Post
Jose
Posted by
ccstorms on Sep 21, 2017 at 11:04:52 AM


New Post
Lee- Final Advisory
Posted by
ccstorms on Sep 19, 2017 at 08:10:26 AM


New Post
Irma
Posted by
ccstorms on Sep 13, 2017 at 08:51:17 PM


New Post
Katia
Posted by
ccstorms on Sep 07, 2017 at 10:38:16 AM


New Post
Possible Gulf Invest- Deactivated
Posted by
ccstorms on Aug 31, 2017 at 07:45:36 AM


***FORUM RULES***

Sponsored Links

Total Hits
We received
77340615
page views since June 2005

Social Networks

Southwest Florida Weather | Central Florida Weather | Florida Weather

Cape Coral | Fort Myers | Bonita Springs | Naples | Punta Gorda | Port Charlotte | Estero | Sanibel | Lehigh Acres | Captiva | Pine Island | Bokeelia | St. James City | Alva | Arcadia | Labelle | Clewiston | Venice

Lee County | Charlotte County | Collier County | Hendry County | Desoto County
Glades County | Monroe County | Sarasota County | Manatee County
Hillsborough County | Pinellas County | Pasco County

Recommend us




Copyright Capeweather.com 2005-2017

DO NOT make decisions that affect life or property based on this data!
PHP-Nuke Copyright © 2004 by Francisco Burzi. This is free software, and you may redistribute it under the GPL. PHP-Nuke comes with absolutely no warranty, for details, see the license.
Page Generation: 0.28 Seconds