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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Irma-Final Advisory
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Irma-Final Advisory
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:54 am    Post subject: Re: Irma-Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

...IRMA FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 30.3W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 30.3 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours and Irma could become a hurricane
on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake



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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 9:00 am    Post subject: Re: Irma-Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Storm Irma Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area in the far
eastern Atlantic has become much better organized since yesterday,
with many curved bands around the center. ASCAT data showed peak
winds of about 42 kt, and after considering the small size of the
circulation and some undersampling due to the resolution of the
instrument, the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt. Global models
indicate that the upper-level winds are likely to be favorable for
strengthening of Irma during the next several days. However, Irma
will be moving over more marginal water temperatures and into drier
mid-level conditions, which should temper the intensification rate.
The NHC solution is a blend of the intensity consensus and the
statistical-dynamical hurricane models SHIPS and LGEM. At the end
of the period, the forecast could turn out to be conservative if the
very conducive environment shown in most of the global models
emerges.

The initial motion estimate is 280/11. A ridge over the eastern
Atlantic is forecast to steer Irma westward over the next few days.
Thereafter, the ridge builds southwestward, which will likely cause
the storm to move, somewhat unusually, toward the west-southwest.
The official forecast puts more weight on the global models than the
regional hurricane models, which appear to have a northward bias on
this cycle. Thus, the NHC track prediction is on the southwestern
side of the guidance envelope, although not as far in that direction
as the ECMWF or its ensemble mean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 16.4N 30.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 16.7N 31.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 17.3N 33.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 17.9N 35.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 18.2N 37.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 18.7N 41.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 17.7N 46.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 17.0N 51.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 3:41 pm    Post subject: Re: Irma-Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

...IRMA INTENSIFYING STEADILY OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 31.2W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 31.2 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). The tropical storm
is expected to turn slightly toward the west-northwest at a
slower rate of speed for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Irma is
expected to become a hurricane Thursday or Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea



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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 6:00 pm    Post subject: Re: Irma-Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

...IRMA INTENSIFYING STEADILY OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 31.2W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 31.2 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). The tropical storm
is expected to turn slightly toward the west-northwest at a
slower rate of speed for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Irma is
expected to become a hurricane Thursday or Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:35 am    Post subject: Re: Irma-Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

...IRMA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 32.2W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 32.2 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward
the west-northwest is expected by Thursday, and this general motion
should continue through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast and Irma
is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown



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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:38 am    Post subject: Re: Irma-Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Storm Irma Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

Irma continues to become better organized, with the development of
a small CDO feature and increased banding near the center. An
earlier high-resolution Windsat microwave overpass showed that Irma
has a tight inner core and a low-level eye-like feature was
present. A Dvorak classification of T3.5 from TAFB is the basis
for the initial intensity of 55 kt. Irma is expected to steadily
strengthen during the next couple of days while it moves through a
low-shear and moist environment, and remains over warm sea
surface temperatures. After that time, slightly cooler SSTs and
lower mid-level moisture may temper the intensification process.
However, the statistical aids, HWRF, and most of the consensus
models make Irma a major hurricane by the end of the forecast
period. The NHC forecast is fairly similar to the previous advisory
through 48 hours, but is above the earlier forecast thereafter. The
new official intensity forecast could still be a little conservative
as it remains a little below the SHIPS/LGEM guidance and the ICON
consensus at days 4 and 5.

Irma is moving westward at about 10 kt to the south of deep-layer
ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The track forecast reasoning is
about the same as the previous advisory, with Irma expected to turn
west-northwestward on Thursday, then continue on that heading
for a couple of days. The high pressure ridge over the central
Atlantic is forecast to strengthen later this week, which is
expected to result in Irma turning west-southwestward by the
weekend. There is still some spread among the track models, so the
NHC forecast lies near a blend of the typically reliable GFS and
ECMWF, and the HFIP corrected consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 16.4N 32.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 16.8N 33.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 17.3N 35.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 17.7N 37.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 18.0N 39.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 17.6N 44.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 16.8N 49.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 16.2N 53.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:59 am    Post subject: Re: Irma-Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

...IRMA CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 32.9W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 32.9 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion is expected today and tonight, followed by a generally
westward motion on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Irma is likely to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:00 am    Post subject: Re: Irma-Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Storm Irma Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

Irma continues to become better organized with a developing CDO and
a few banding features. The overall cloud pattern is fairly
symmetric, with fair upper-level outflow over all but the
southeastern portion of the circulation. The current intensity
is set at 60 kt, which is the mean of Dvorak estimates from TAFB
and SAB. The environment ahead of Irma appears to be mostly
conducive for intensification, with increasingly warm SSTs.
Vertical shear is expected to remain low as an upper-level trough
to the west-northwest of the tropical cyclone lifts out to the
north and west. The only noticeable inhibiting factor is slightly
drier mid-level air in 2-5 days, but this will probably not be much
of a deterrent for strengthening. The official intensity forecast
follows the latest consensus of the models, and is similar to the
previous NHC prediction.

Based on geostationary satellite fixes, the initial motion is just
slightly north of west or 280/10 kt. Most of the track guidance
shows a west-northwestward motion for the next day or so. Irma
will remain situated to the south of a well-defined
mid-tropospheric ridge through the forecast period. Much of the
guidance indicates that Irma will turn toward a slightly south of
westward heading in a couple of days, presumably in response to some
building of high pressure to the north and northwest. The official
track forecast also shows this, and remains on the southern side of
the guidance suite. This is mainly a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 16.5N 32.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 17.0N 34.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 17.6N 36.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 18.0N 37.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 18.2N 40.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 17.5N 45.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 16.7N 49.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 16.0N 53.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:34 am    Post subject: Re: Irma-Final Advisory Reply with quote

NHC
16.7N, 33.5W, Winds 70 KT, Pressure 990 MB, HURRICANE


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:25 am    Post subject: Re: Irma-Final Advisory Reply with quote

NHC UPDATE

16.7N, 33.4W, Winds 75 KT, Pressure 987 MB, HURRICANE
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