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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Irma-Final Advisory
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Irma-Final Advisory
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chris
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:35 pm    Post subject: Re: Irma-Final Advisory Reply with quote

Mike,
I would take all precautions necessary to keep you and your family safe even if that does include evacuation. Irma is no joke. Consider booking a hotel on the west coast. You can always cancel.
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:02 am    Post subject: Re: Irma-Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

...EYE OF IRMA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 68.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM N OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the Northwestern Bahamas.
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:07 am    Post subject: Re: Irma-Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

Irma has become a little less organized during the past few hours.
Data from an Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 0500
UTC indicated that the central pressure had risen to 921 mb and
that the winds had decreased both at the 700 mb flight-level and in
surface estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer.
Since that time, the eye has become cloud filled and the central
convection has become somewhat ragged. The initial intensity is
lowered to 155 kt, and this could be a little generous. The next
aircraft is scheduled to reach Irma around 1200 UTC.

The initial motion is 290/15. The hurricane is currently being
steered by the subtropical ridge to the north, and for the next
48 h or so this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in
the forward speed. After 48 h, a mid- to upper-level trough
digging into the eastern United States is expected to create a
break in the ridge and allow Irma to turn northward. The timing of
the turn is the most important question and one still filled with
uncertainty. The UKMET, UK Ensemble mean, and the NAVGEM are the
models showing the latest turn, and they forecast Irma to move into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula. The ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble mean are in the
middle of the model pack and show Irma moving over the southeastern
portion of the Florida Peninsula. The GFS, Canadian, and GFS
Ensemble mean show the earliest turn and show Irma moving east of
the coast of Florida toward the southeastern United States. The
new forecast track will best follow the ECMWF, as well as the
Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and
it calls for the center to move over portions of the southeastern
Florida Peninsula between 72-96 h and then across the Atlantic into
southern South Carolina by 120 h. Users are again reminded not to
focus on the exact track since the average NHC track errors at days
3, 4, and 5 are about 120, 175, and 225 miles, respectively.

Irma should remain in warm-water, and a low shear environment for
about the next three days, and thus is expected to remain a strong
hurricane, most likely Category 5 or 4. Fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the time due to internal eyewall replacement
cycles. The large-scale models suggest that shear could increase
starting at about 72 hr. However, due to the uncertainty as to
whether this will happen, the intensity forecast keeps Irma at
category 4 strength until landfall in Florida. The 96-120 h points
now have a lower intensity due to the forecast of shear and land
interaction, but Irma is still expected to be a hurricane when it
reaches the southeastern United States.

Since Irma is moving away from Puerto Rico and the radars there, the
hourly position estimates are discontinued after this advisory.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will
bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to
the northern coast of Hispaniola today, and the Turks and Caicos and
southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and Friday.

2. Hurricane watches are in effect for the northwestern Bahamas and
much of Cuba. Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm surge,
and rainfall to portions of these areas on Friday and Saturday.

3. The threat of direct hurricane impacts in Florida over the
weekend and early next week continues to increase. Hurricane
watches will likely be issued for portions of the Florida Keys and
the Florida peninsula later this morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 20.0N 68.3W 155 KT 180 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 20.7N 70.5W 150 KT 175 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 21.7N 73.1W 145 KT 165 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 22.3N 75.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 22.8N 77.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 24.5N 80.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 28.5N 80.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 33.0N 81.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:10 am    Post subject: Re: Irma-Final Advisory Reply with quote

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 5:53 am    Post subject: Re: Irma-Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
800 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

...EYE OF IRMA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE NORTHERN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA...
...HEADING FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 69.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:54 am    Post subject: Re: Irma-Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRMA HEADING FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 69.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ENE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida peninsula from
Jupiter Inlet southward and around the peninsula to Bonita Beach,
including the Florida Keys.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Florida peninsula from
Jupiter Inlet southward and around the peninsula to Bonita Beach,
including the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay.

The government of Cuba has extended the Tropical Storm Warning to
Villa Clara province.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:56 am    Post subject: Re: Irma-Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

The eye on satellite continues to be quite distinct, and data from
an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the initial
intensity is 150 kt. The central pressure remains near 921 mb.

The environment along the future track of Irma is favorable for the
hurricane to maintain most of its current intensity, although some
fluctuations are likely due to eyewall replacement cycles which
are difficult to predict. There are no obvious reasons why Irma
will not remain a powerful hurricane for the next 3 days while
approaching Florida. Thereafter, an increase in the wind shear could
lead to gradual weakening, but Irma is expected to remain a
major hurricane until landfall occurs.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest
or 290 degrees at 14 kt. Irma is being steered by the flow around
the south side of the subtropical ridge, but in 2 to 3 days, the
hurricane will be located on the southwestern edge of the
aforementioned ridge, and a turn to the northwest and north-
northwest should then begin. There has been no change in the
guidance which is still quite clustered and brings the core
of Irma very near the southeast Florida coast in about 3 days.
The NHC forecast, which is similar to the previous one, is very
close to the multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus
HCCA. The later has been performing very well during Irma.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will
continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards to the northern coast of Hispaniola today. These hazards
will spread across the Turks and Caicos tonight and the Bahamas
tonight through Saturday.

2. A hurricane watch is in effect for much of Cuba. Irma is likely
to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to portions of
these areas on Friday and Saturday.

3. The threat of dangerous major hurricane impacts in Florida
continues to increase. A hurricane watch has been issued for south
Florida, the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay. This
watch will likely be expanded northward later today. Residents in
these areas should heed any advice given by local officials.

4. A storm surge watch has also been issued for portions of south
Florida and the Florida Keys. This means there is the possibility of
life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline during the next 48 hours in these areas. The Potential
Storm Surge Flooding Map depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded. Because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend
through 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in the
watch area.

5. The chance of direct impacts is increasing in portions of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, but it is too early to
specify the magnitude and location of the impacts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 20.4N 69.7W 150 KT 175 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 21.1N 71.7W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 21.9N 74.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 22.5N 76.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 23.1N 78.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 25.5N 80.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 30.1N 80.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 35.0N 82.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:55 am    Post subject: Re: Irma-Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
200 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRMA MOVING BETWEEN
THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 70.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES
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chris
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:51 pm    Post subject: Re: Irma-Final Advisory Reply with quote

Lou,
Whats your opinion of the Euro model compared to the GFS model as far as reliability? Do you prefer one over the other?
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:02 pm    Post subject: Re: Irma-Final Advisory Reply with quote

chris wrote:
Lou,
Whats your opinion of the Euro model compared to the GFS model as far as reliability? Do you prefer one over the other?


Sorry, but I won't answer that question because I want people to pay attention to the NHC and the local officials and not any model or me.
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