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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - PTC 10- Final Advisory
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PTC 10- Final Advisory
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Tue Aug 22, 2017 6:15 am    Post subject: Re: PTC 10- Final Advisory Reply with quote

NHC
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad trough of
low pressure near the northwestern Bahamas remains limited. Any
development of this system during the next few days should be slow
to occur while it moves west-northwestward, and then turns
northwestward or northward near Florida and the adjacent waters.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
development by the weekend when the system begins to move
northeastward over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:30 pm    Post subject: Re: PTC 10- Final Advisory Reply with quote

NHC

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
Bahamas is associated with a trough of low pressure. Any
development of this system during the next few days should be slow
to occur while it moves northwestward or northward near Florida and
the adjacent waters. Environmental conditions could become a little
more conducive for tropical or subtropical development by the
weekend when the system begins to move northeastward over the
western Atlantic. Regardless of development, very heavy rain and
flooding is possible over portions of the Florida peninsula during
the next few days. Please refer to products from your local
National Weather Service office for more information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Tue Aug 22, 2017 3:51 pm    Post subject: Re: PTC 10- Final Advisory Reply with quote

NWS TAMPA

(Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)...
At the beginning of the long range period, a potent upper
trough will extend from the Northern Plains into New
England. High pressure will dominate the remainder of the
country with a couple of noted weaknesses in the tropics. At
the surface, high pressure will extend across the western
Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico with a weak tropical
low near the southern tip of Florida, and a strengthening
low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico.

We again face an uncertain forecast as models continue to
handle the evolution of a weak surface low quite poorly.
This tropical disturbance is currently situated over the
Bahamas and will drift slowly west to northwest to a
position either over the southern Florida peninsula or just
offshore in the far eastern Gulf by late Wednesday. As is
common with weak areas of low pressure, medium range
guidance can hardly resolve the system, which is making the
exact track of the feature very difficult to discern. The
more reliable mid/long range solutions are beginning to
converge somewhat, but we have a long way to go before
consensus is obtained. To complicate things, the remnants of
Harvey look to move out into the western Gulf, eventually
strengthening into at least a tropical depression or
tropical storm. Both of these features, along with a
deepening of the upper trough and a southward moving cold
front will lead to a complicated forecast and error is
certain to be quite high as we move beyond this weekend.

What we do know is that the weak tropical disturbance is
likely to at least affect areas of southern and perhaps
central Florida Wednesday into the weekend, as a plume of
deep tropical moisture joins the daily seabreeze
circulations and daytime heating. This should promote fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday through
Saturday afternoon, especially south of the I-4 corridor.
Localized flooding may occur in areas that receive training
rounds of heavy rain, though widespread flooding doesn`t
appear likely at this time. Further north, over north
central Florida and along the Nature Coast, lesser chances
of rain will exist due in part to the presence of some
slightly drier air aloft.

Beyond the weekend, even greater uncertainty exists as
models attempt to spin up two tropical cyclones along the
stalled frontal boundary. Right now, we look to remain
between these two systems, which would generally favor drier
and hotter conditions that normal, but a small deviation
could result in greater impacts to the area, and will will
have to monitor the situation closely.
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ccstorms
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Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Tue Aug 22, 2017 3:57 pm    Post subject: Re: PTC 10- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
436 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

...Wet and Stormy Remainder of the Week with Flooding Potential...

.DISCUSSION...
Relatively dry conditions late this afternoon across South Florida
as the trough of low pressure remains to our east over the western
Bahamas. Expect showers and thunderstorms to increase some over
interior and western areas until early evening in typical diurnal
pattern, while most of the east coast metro areas remains dry.

The trough will slowly make its way towards South Florida tonight,
ushering in a wet and stormy period which will likely last through
the end of the week (and maybe beyond). Precipitable water values
in excess of 2 inches seen in experimental GOES-16 total precipitable
water product lining up to our SE and this rich tropical moisture
will be pumped into South Florida as winds become SE through the
mid-levels through Thursday. Another round of scattered showers
and thunderstorms will move onshore the east coast tonight, increase
further in coverage on Wednesday morning and spread across the
interior and Gulf coast by midday and through the afternoon.
Timing/coverage of convection will still exhibit somewhat of a
diurnal cycle on Wednesday, but as a second mid-level trough
approaches South Florida from the SE Wednesday night and
Thursday, showers and thunderstorms should increase and become
widespread for most of that period. Models suggest that the
trough and mid-level low will shift north and east Thursday night
and Friday, placing South Florida in a S/SW wind flow. This raises
particular concerns for heavy rainfall/flood potential along the
Gulf coast Thursday night and Friday, especially if bands of
stronger showers and thunderstorms form over the SE Gulf of Mexico
and move onshore.

While overall moisture profile is certainly adequate enough for
us to be concerned about the potential for flooding across much of
South Florida, more precise timing and coverage of heavier rain
is still somewhat in question due to the rather complex nature of
the weather pattern over the region, especially with how the
surface and low level trough interacts with the mid-level low.

It`s important to note that regardless of any low development over
the next few days, the overall pattern is conducive for at least
the potential for flooding rains over parts of South Florida. If
present trends continue, a Flood Watch may have to be issued
either Wednesday or early Thursday for at least parts of South
Florida, with the threat of flooding rains possibly extending
through Friday.

For the upcoming weekend, GFS and ECMWF show surface low pressure
hanging around north of the western Bahamas, which would continue
to place South Florida in a moist SW flow. Therefore, no break
from the wet and stormy pattern in sight until perhaps early next
week.
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Tue Aug 22, 2017 5:55 pm    Post subject: Re: PTC 10- Final Advisory Reply with quote

NHC

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms stretching
across the Bahamas, Florida, and the adjacent waters is associated
with a trough of low pressure. Any development of this system
during the next few days should be slow to occur while it drifts
northward over Florida and the adjacent waters. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for tropical or
subtropical development by the weekend when the system begins to
move northeastward over the western Atlantic. Regardless of
development, very heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions
of the Florida peninsula during the next few days. Please refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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ccstorms
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Senior Member


Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:54 am    Post subject: Re: PTC 10- Final Advisory Reply with quote

NHC

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms stretching
across the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters is
associated with a trough of low pressure. Any development of this
system during the next few days should be slow to occur while it
drifts northward over Florida and the adjacent waters. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for tropical or
subtropical development over the weekend when the system begins to
move northeastward over the western Atlantic. Regardless of
development, very heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions
of the Florida peninsula during the next few days. Please refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:06 am    Post subject: Re: PTC 10- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
403 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Latest IR satellite imagery shows convection bubbling over
Atlantic waters near the central Bahamas. This activity can be
attributed to the unstable airmass and high moisture content
associated with a tropical wave. Satellite derived PWAT displayed
an impressive 2.2"-2.3" across the entire CWA, indicating
atmosphere moisture levels well above normal for this time of
year. Through the remainder of this morning, as the tropical waves
edges closer to the Atlantic coast, shower coverage should begin
to slowly increase. Short range models, including the HRRR and Hi-
Res WRF prog most of the activity to develop over various portions
of the peninsula early this afternoon, with the help of diurnal
heating. Light easterly flow may concentrate the showers over the
interior and Gulf Coast regions. With abundant tropical moisture
in place, heavy rain is possible, which may lead to local ponding
of water on the streets or flooding of low lying areas with any
storms that train over the same area. Maximum temperatures may
struggle to reach 90 degrees along the east coast metro today, due
to the increase in moisture and cloud cover. Meanwhile, low 90s
are forecast along the Gulf Coast.

Tonight through Thursday: The tropical low located near the
southern tip of the peninsula will remain rather stagnant tonight
into Thursday. With various vorticity maxima rotating around this
low, sufficient lift and instability will help to generate
numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially along the east
coast metro region. As the low slowly drifts northward late
Thursday, flow will turn south southeast, further drawing in deep
tropical moisture northward over South Florida. GFS forecast PWAT
values rise to between 2.3" to 2.4" and relatively high rain
rates could lead to a more substantial flooding threat. This
threat will be analyzed later this morning or early afternoon to
see if a flood watch is necessary during this timeframe.

Friday to Sunday: Both the GFS and ECMWF move the aforementioned low
northeastward off central Florida`s Atlantic coast Friday into this
weekend. In response, flow over South Florida will turn
southwesterly. Deep moisture, along with southwesterly flow may
concentrate showers and storms along the eastern portion of the
peninsula including the east coast metro region. This would further
prolong the threat of heavy rain and elevated flooding potential,
due to previously saturated grounds.
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ccstorms
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Senior Member


Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 6:07 am    Post subject: Re: PTC 10- Final Advisory Reply with quote

NHC
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms stretching across
the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters is associated
with a trough of low pressure. Any development of this system
during the next few days should be slow to occur while it drifts
northward over Florida and the adjacent waters. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for tropical or
subtropical development over the weekend when the system begins to
move northeastward over the western Atlantic. Regardless of
development, very heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions
of the Florida peninsula during the next few days. Please refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake
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ccstorms
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 12:15 pm    Post subject: Re: PTC 10- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
reformed Tropical Depression Harvey, located in the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico.

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending across
the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters is associated
with a trough of low pressure. Any development of this system
during the next few days should be slow to occur while it drifts
northward over Florida and the adjacent waters. Thereafter, some
tropical or subtropical development is possible over the weekend
when the system begins to move northeastward over the western
Atlantic before it merges with a front. Regardless of development,
very heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions of the
Florida peninsula during the next few days. Please refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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ccstorms
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 7:12 pm    Post subject: Re: PTC 10- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Harvey, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending across the Bahamas,
southern Florida, and the adjacent waters are associated with a
trough of low pressure. Development, if any, of this system
during the next few days should be slow to occur while it drifts
northward over Florida and the adjacent waters. Thereafter, some
tropical or subtropical development is possible over the weekend
while the system moves northeastward over the western Atlantic
before it merges with a front. Regardless of development,
very heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions of the
Florida peninsula during the next few days. Please refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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