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Lee County Forecast
This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 99. North northeast wind around 8 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Scattered
Showers

Tonight

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. East northeast wind 5 to 9 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Scattered
Showers then
Partly Cloudy
Hi 92 °FLo 74 °F
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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - PTC 10- Final Advisory
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PTC 10- Final Advisory
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12899
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sun Aug 20, 2017 7:41 pm    Post subject: Re: PTC 10- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tuesday and Wednesday: Another surge of deep tropical moisture
associated with the next tropical wave (92L) will move into the
area. This wave appears to be slower-moving, and its remnants in
the form of a shear axis will likely stall over or near South
Florida for a couple of days. In addition, height falls over the
northeast US/southeast Canada will induce more of a southerly flow
over the area as a weakening front pushes toward northern
Florida. The combination of all these features points to periods
of rain and thunderstorms, with potentially some local heavy rain
at times.

Thursday to Saturday: The decaying front slowly pushes south into
Florida and absorbs any remnant low-level vorticity from 92L.
Several medium range models hint at cyclogenesis over the Gulf
Stream northeast of our region as this absorption process takes
place. Regardless of whether a surface low forms or not, there
will be a lot of moisture around, a trailing shear axis, and deep
south/southwest flow providing a continuous moisture stream, which
would argue for additional rounds of rain and thunderstorms
(especially east coast). In fact, the NCEP Weather Prediction
Center is forecasting an areal average of 3 to 4+ inches of rain
over much of the region this week. This would indicate the
potential for much heavier amounts locally, driven by mesoscale
processes. This calls for careful monitoring of the flood
potential throughout the week.
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:50 am    Post subject: Re: PTC 10- Final Advisory Reply with quote

NHC

A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
north-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend southeastward
toward Puerto Rico. Environmental conditions are expected to be
unfavorable for development of this system during the next day or
so while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph toward
the northern Bahamas and southern Florida. Conditions could become
a little more conducive for development later in the week when the
system is near Florida or the adjacent waters of the western
Atlantic or eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.




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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12899
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:55 am    Post subject: Re: PTC 10- Final Advisory Reply with quote

NWS MIAMI

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY: The next tropical wave (92L) is expected to
continue its westward march today, reaching the NW Bahamas this
evening and moving across South Florida on Tuesday. This wave
appears to be slower-moving, and it will begin interacting with the
trough/frontal axis across the northeastern US, and likely stall
over or near South Florida.

Current timing based on satellite has the plume of moisture
associated with this feature arriving this evening. Coverage of
showers and storms is expected to quickly ramp up overnight into
Tuesday, especially once the wave axis crosses the area Tuesday
morning. Numerous showers with embedded storms are expected during
the day on Tuesday. As has been highlighted the past few days, there
will be the potential for periods of heavy rain. There is potential
for much heavier local amounts than the areal averages, especially
along the east coast with coastal convergence. WPC has already
placed much of the area under a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall for this period.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: Deepening mid-upper level trough across
the eastern US will absorb the remnant low-level vorticity from 92L
late in the week, while a weakening front pushes into northern
Florida. The south-southwesterly flow that develops across the
region as a result of these features will continue to pump tropical
moisture across the area. Several models still show the potential
for cyclogenesis over the Gulf Stream northeast of our region
late week as the remnants of 92L interact with the frontal
boundary. NHC continues to monitor this feature, and has a 40%
chance of development into a tropical cyclone in 5 days when it is
in our vicinity.

Regardless of whether a surface low forms or not, the combination of
a trailing shear axis and deep south/southwest flow providing a
continuous moisture stream, which would argue for periods of rain
and thunderstorms (especially east coast). The threat with this
pattern also remains for heavy rain at times, with NCEP Weather
Prediction Center is forecasting an areal average of 3 to 4+ inches
of rain over much of the region this week. This would indicate the
potential for much heavier amounts locally, driven by mesoscale
processes. This calls for careful monitoring of the flood potential
throughout the week.

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ccstorms
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Posts: 12899
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:51 am    Post subject: Re: PTC 10- Final Advisory Reply with quote

NHC

A trough of low pressure located near the southeastern and central
Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for
development of this system during the next day or so while it moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the Bahamas. Conditions
could become a little more conducive for development later in the
week when the system is near Florida or the adjacent waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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ccstorms
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Posts: 12899
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:49 am    Post subject: Re: PTC 10- Final Advisory Reply with quote

NHC

A trough of low pressure located near the central Bahamas continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it moves west-northwestward across the Bahamas and then turns
northwestward or northward near Florida and the adjacent waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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ccstorms
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Posts: 12899
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:57 pm    Post subject: Re: PTC 10- Final Advisory Reply with quote

NWS TAMPA

The forecast remains highly uncertain with respect to the
tropical low/easterly wave expected to move across the
southern tip of Florida or Florida Straits. This feature is
currently being affected by an area of drier air and weak
wind shear, which is good because it limits the potential
for this feature to strengthen into a tropical cyclone.
However, conditions may become slightly more favorable by
Wednesday. So if this low makes it into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, it will have to be monitored closely. Given the
feature is generally being poorly resolved, models vary in
its position over the next 72 hours, with some solutions
showing it over the Gulf and others just of the east coast
of Florida. In the current forecast, we expect the low to
track across south Florida, bringing greatly increased rain
chances to areas along and south of I-4. The most recent
guidance shows this low will remain a relevant feature
through the latter half of the week as it slowly meanders
either over south Florida, or just off the southwest Florida
coast. It goes without saying, this will need to be watched
closely for potential tropical development. At the very
least, this feature will maintain high rain chances each day
as deep tropical moisture mingles with the seabreezes and
daytime heating. Locally heavy rainfall may also become a
concern, especially south of I-4 where the greatest QPF
signal is apparent.

Heading into the weekend, a potent shortwave is expected to
lead to a deepening of the Great Lakes trough, allowing a
cold front to drop southward into the southeast U.S. The
more aggressive European brings the drier post frontal air
all the way into northern Florida with the more reserved GFS
confining it more to Georgia and the Carolinas. In both
cases, an interaction between the remnants of the tropical
disturbance and the frontal boundary will likely promote
heavy rainfall across portions of the southeastern U.S.
including Florida.
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ccstorms
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Posts: 12899
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:12 pm    Post subject: Re: PTC 10- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
357 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered cumulus clouds dot the South Florida sky at mid
afternoon as the eclipse comes to an end. The area is under a
subsident regime between two tropical waves with a well-defined
capping inversion on the MFL 12Z sounding. GOES-16 imagery
indicates the next tropical wave (called Invest 92L by the
National Hurricane Center) rapidly approaching from the east. In
fact KAMX 88D indicates scattered showers already beginning to
cross the east coast.

Tonight and Tuesday: Coverage and intensity of showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected to steadily increase tonight over the
east coast. Activity may hold off til closer til sunrise near the
Collier Gulf Coast and Glades/Hendry Counties. High resolution
guidance suggests convection that moves in will have the
potential for efficient rain rates especially toward sunrise and
during the day. Coverage increases Tuesday as the axis of the
tropical wave moves over and then just northwest of the area and
the region enters the more favorable sector for upward motion.

Wednesday through Friday: The leftover vorticity associated with
the tropical wave comes nearly to a halt over the area Wed-Thu.
This will yield a deep southeasterly fetch tapping rich tropical
moisture with several weak disturbances bringing periods of
convection. Whether 92L develops a surface cyclone near the region
is not the most important thing to focus on in terms of impacts.
Regardless of the scientific classification of the system, the
most significant impacts are likely to be from periods of heavy
rain.

This weekend: The trailing front from the Canadian low gradually
sinks into the southeast US and approaches northern Florida. This
front will likely absorb whatever vorticity remains of 92L just
northeast of our region. This will keep southerly/southwesterly
flow with rich moisture overhead, favorable for continued periods
of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain.

Impacts from heavy rain through the weekend: Typically prone
areas of poor drainage will be at increased risk of ponding water
and occasional minor flooding. Areas of street flooding are also
likely to be an issue during periods of heavy rain. While there is
some risk for more significant flooding problems beyond the usual
vulnerable roads and low spots, there is not enough confidence
yet regarding timing/location of the greatest threat to justify a
Flood Watch. However, a watch may still be needed later in the
week as the ground saturates.
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12899
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 6:02 pm    Post subject: Re: PTC 10- Final Advisory Reply with quote

NHC
A broad trough of low pressure located near the central Bahamas and
the adjacent Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Only slow development of this system is anticipated
during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward
across the Bahamas and then turns northwestward or northward near
Florida and the adjacent waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.




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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12899
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Tue Aug 22, 2017 3:41 am    Post subject: Re: PTC 10- Final Advisory Reply with quote

NHC
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad trough of
low pressure near the northwestern Bahamas remains limited. Any
development of this system during the next few days should be slow
to occur while it moves west-northwestward, and then turns
northwestward or northward near Florida and the adjacent waters.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
development by the weekend when the system begins to move
northeastward over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12899
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Tue Aug 22, 2017 3:52 am    Post subject: Re: PTC 10- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
354 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Latest water vapor imagery shows convection, associated with
invest 92L, becoming sightly more robust near the central
Bahamas. Meanwhile, satellite derived PWAT values between 2.0"-2.3"
can be seen advecting over South Florida from the southeast,
replacing the once dry and stable airmass. The sounding from Monday
evening indicated a healthy 10-20 KT easterly wind from the
surface up to 300 mb, with the lower and mid levels already
beginning to moisten up. Radar reflects this incoming moisture
surge nicely with occasional showers pushing onshore from the
Atlantic. Models prog the axis of the aforementioned tropical wave
to move further northwest today, allowing increased positive
vorticity addition and upward motion over South Florida. With both
sufficient moisture and instability in place, shower and
thunderstorms will continue throughout the day. The deep column of
moisture will allow for a few heavier cells, which may cause
ponding of water on roadways if trained over the same area.
However, confidence of occurrence/coverage of heavier activity is
still too low to issue any kind of flood watch at this point in
time.

Wednesday into Thursday: Mid range models show this tropical
feature moving very little to the north or northwest. This slow
movement will keep the gates open for tapping into the deep
tropical moisture and an unstable airmass. GFS PWATs are forecast
to climb to between 2.20"-2.30", noticeably above normal for this
time of year. Thus, PoPs will remain from the high chance to
likely category through this period, with on and off moderate to
heavy showers.

Friday into this weekend: Both the GFS and ECWMF models deepen a
long wave through over the eastern CONUS. A front draped down from
the low, stretching across the deep south, should act to stall
abundant moisture in place over the Florida peninsula. If this
scenario plays out, additional moisture and lift from this front
will allow for the heavier showers and thunderstorms to continue
over our CWA.

The main threat through this week and into the weekend will be the
accumulating rainfall. The weather prediction center forecasts
4"+ inches over our region for this seven day stretch. Higher
accumulations are likely over localized areas, leading to an
increased flooding threat.
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