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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Emily- Final Advisory
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Emily- Final Advisory
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12893
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 12:30 pm    Post subject: Emily- Final Advisory Reply with quote

NHC

A well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system has developed over
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico about 100 miles south-southwest of
Apalachicola, Florida. Upper-level winds are only marginally
conducive for this system to acquire subtropical or tropical
characteristics tonight and Monday before it moves inland over the
central Florida peninsula on Tuesday, and into the western Atlantic
by Wednesday. Regardless of development, the low is expected to
produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of central and
northeastern Florida during the next couple of days. Please see
additional information from your local National Weather Service
Forecast Offices concerning the rainfall threat.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart




Last edited by ccstorms on Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:55 am; edited 5 times in total
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 12:31 pm    Post subject: Re: Emily- Final Advisory Reply with quote



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ccstorms
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Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 6:33 pm    Post subject: Re: Emily- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small non-tropical low pressure area located about 140 miles west
of Tampa, Florida, is producing a limited area of thunderstorm
activity as it drifts southeastward. This system has some chance
to acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics on Monday before
it moves inland over the central Florida peninsula on Tuesday, and
into the western Atlantic by Wednesday. Regardless of development,
the low is expected to enhance locally heavy rainfall across
portions of central and northeastern Florida during the next couple
of days. Please see additional information from your local National
Weather Service Forecast Offices concerning the rainfall threat.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.




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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12893
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:14 am    Post subject: Re: Emily- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite and radar data indicate that showers and thunderstorms
associated with a small low pressure area located about 90 miles
west of Tampa, Florida, are showing some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some
additional development before the low moves inland over the
central Florida peninsula later today or tonight, and over the
western Atlantic late Tuesday or Wednesday. Regardless of
development, the low is expected to produce gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall across portions of the Florida peninsula during the
next couple of days. Please see additional information from your
local National Weather Service Forecast Offices concerning the
rainfall threat.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent



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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:36 am    Post subject: Re: Emily- Final Advisory Reply with quote

pecial Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
520 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure area over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Updated: Radar data indicate that showers and thunderstorms
associated with the small area of low pressure located about 75
miles west of Tampa, Florida, have continued to become better
organized, and a tropical depression has formed. Advisories will be
initiated on this system as Tropical Depression Six within the next
hour.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:39 am    Post subject: Re: Emily- Final Advisory Reply with quote

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL has
issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of central Florida, south central
Florida, southwest Florida, and west central Florida,
including the following areas, in central Florida, Hardee. In
south central Florida, DeSoto and Highlands. In southwest
Florida, Coastal Charlotte, Coastal Lee, Inland Charlotte, and
Inland Lee. In west central Florida, Coastal Hillsborough,
Coastal Manatee, Coastal Sarasota, Inland Hillsborough, Inland
Manatee, Inland Sarasota, and Pinellas.

* Through this evening

* Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue
across the watch area. Conditions will be supportive of some
very heavy rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches...with
locally higher amounts possible in some locations.
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:51 am    Post subject: Re: Emily- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six Special Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
600 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 83.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM WNW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of
Florida from the Anclote River southward to Englewood.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Englewood Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next few
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 600 AM EDT (1000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 83.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected tonight or
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is
expected to move inland over the central Florida peninsula later
today and move across central Florida through tonight. The
depression is forecast to move offshore of the east-central Florida
coast early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Monday night along the west
coast of central Florida between the Tampa Bay area and Naples, with
isolated amounts up to 8 inches possible. Elsewhere across central
and south Florida, 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with localized
amounts of up to 4 inches possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
through this afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:57 am    Post subject: Re: Emily- Final Advisory Reply with quote

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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 4:04 am    Post subject: Re: Emily- Final Advisory Reply with quote

NHC
"The primary threat with this system is expected to be locally heavy
rainfall across portions of the Florida peninsula during the next
couple of days. Due to the uncertainty in the intensity forecast, a
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the west-
central coast of Florida."
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 5:41 am    Post subject: Re: Emily- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emily Special Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM WEST OF TAMPA BAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 83.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of
Florida from Anclote River southward to Bonita Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Bonita Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely within the warning area, in this case within the next few
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emily was
located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 83.2 West. Emily is
moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northeast and an
increase in forward speed are expected tonight or Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Emily is expected to move inland over
the the west-central Florida peninsula later today and move across
central Florida through tonight. Emily is expected to move offshore
of the east-central Florida coast early Tuesday.

NOAA Doppler radar data from Tampa, Florida, indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs
this afternoon. Emily is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression while it moves across the Florida peninsula tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches through Monday night along the west coast of central
Florida between the Tampa Bay area and Naples, with isolated amounts
up to 8 inches possible. Elsewhere across central and south Florida,
1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with localized amounts of up to 4
inches possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area
through this afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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