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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Matthew
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Matthew
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Weatherman911
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:30 pm    Post subject: Re: Matthew Reply with quote

HURRICANE MATTHEW
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MATTHEW IS STILL A POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 75.0W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Camaguey * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island * Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 75.0 West. Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach Jamaica and southwestern Haiti on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane into Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). NOAA data buoy 42058, in the central Caribbean Sea, recently reported a wind gust to 62 mph (100 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance aircraft was 945 mb (27.91 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti on Monday, and eastern Cuba Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti tonight, and eastern Cuba early Monday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area by tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by late Tuesday with tropical storm conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic by late Monday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches in southern Haiti and the southwestern portion of the Dominican Republic, with possible isolated amounts of 40 inches. Across eastern Cuba and western Haiti, total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. Across eastern Jamaica, total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over the southeastern Bahamas, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Lower amounts are expected across the northeastern section of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with amounts ranging from 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts around 5 inches. Rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected over western Jamaica. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected over northern Colombia through tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet Jamaica...3 to 5 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$ Forecaster Stewart














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Weatherman911
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:42 pm    Post subject: Re: Matthew Reply with quote

NOAA Hurricane Hunters
This picture was taken onboard WP-3D Orion #NOAA43 right before entering the eye of CAT4 #HurricaneMatthew. Credit: CAPT Tim Gallagher/#NOAA
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Weatherman911
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:48 pm    Post subject: Re: Matthew Reply with quote

Hurricane Hunters
Looking down from 10,000ft inside Cat 4 Hurricane #Matthew today! #hurricanehunters 📸: ARWO Maj Rickert 🌀
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Weatherman911
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:52 pm    Post subject: Re: Matthew Reply with quote

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Weatherman911
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:55 pm    Post subject: Re: Matthew Reply with quote

NWS Key West, FL
8PM update for Hurricane #Matthew from @NHC_Atlantic. Monitor the latest forecast at hurricanes.gov . #flwx #flkeys #KeyWest
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chris
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2016 8:08 am    Post subject: Re: Matthew Reply with quote

Here is a link to a personal weather station on the east side of jamaica. It may be interesting to see the data as Matthew gets closer...if it stays online.

http://www.weatherlink.com/user/passley...;headers=0
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:07 pm    Post subject: Re: Matthew Reply with quote

The forecast models are continuing to trend west. Pay very close attention to every advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:13 pm    Post subject: Re: Matthew Reply with quote

http://www.flgov.com/2016/10/03/gov-sco...g-florida/
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:53 pm    Post subject: Re: Matthew Reply with quote

Matthew
5:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 3
Location: 16.3°N 74.7°W
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 940 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph




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PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:02 pm    Post subject: Re: Matthew Reply with quote

HURRICANE MATTHEW
ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

⚠️ LIFE-THREATENING RAIN...WIND...AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF HAITI TONIGHT...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 74.7W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF TIBURON HAITI ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island, and a Hurricane Watch for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island * Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Camaguey * Turks and Caicos Islands * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 74.7 West. Matthew is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion at a faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach southwestern Haiti tonight, move near eastern Cuba late Tuesday, and move near or over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach Haiti tonight, eastern Cuba Tuesday, the southeastern Bahamas late Tuesday, and the central Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue spreading across Haiti this evening, reach eastern Cuba tonight, the southeastern Bahamas early Tuesday, and the central Bahamas Tuesday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica and along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area soon.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in Cuba and the Turks and Caicos Islands by Tuesday night with tropical storm conditions possible on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25 inches, isolated 40 inches Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Eastern Jamaica...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 to 20 inches The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Northeastern Haiti and the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches Western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet Jamaica...2 to 4 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$ Forecaster Brennan




















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