Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2016 3:01 pm Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine
From 5PM NHC advisory
Total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are possible over much of the Florida peninsula through Thursday.
Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible along the west
coast of Florida from Naples to Steinhatchee. This rainfall may
cause flooding and flash flooding.
Posted: Tue Aug 30, 2016 3:06 am Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
450 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
432 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND SQUALLY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THE HEAVY RAIN
MAY PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL
AS THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN
AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAIN TODAY.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS TODAY. THESE WINDS
COMBINED WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS AND SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TONIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM EITHER LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. COPIOUS
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD ALL
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINS AND SQUALLS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
COASTAL SECTIONS FROM TAMPA NORTH INTO THE NATURE COAST WHERE AN
INCREASED THREAT OF FLOODING WILL EXIST AS BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
STORMS MOVE OVER THE REGION. AT THE PRESENT TIME WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH 6 TO 10 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL
LOCATIONS FROM SARASOTA NORTH TO CEDAR KEY.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT INCREASING WIND
SHEAR WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK OF
TORNADOES DURING LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN INCREASING STORM
SURGE THREAT ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE HIGHEST STORM SURGE LIKELY
TO FOCUS ALONG THE NATURE COAST CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE STORM
DURING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO HELP TO BUILD SEAS
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE GULF WATERS...WHICH IN TURN WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING SURF AND WAVE ACTION ALONG AREA BEACHES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. ALL
RESIDENT...VISITORS AND MARINERS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM SEE THE LATEST
ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.
Posted: Wed Aug 31, 2016 3:38 pm Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE
ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
400 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016
⚠️ HERMINE HEADED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...25.5N 87.4W ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been extended westward along the Florida panhandle to Destin.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River to Destin
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to Destin
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Marineland Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
Interests along the United States east coast from Georgia through the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 87.4 West. Hermine is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center will be near the coast in the warning area Thursday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Hermine could be near hurricane strength by the time landfall occurs.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center, mainly to the east and southeast.
The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area on Thursday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of the hurricane watch area beginning Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by early Friday.
⚠️ STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 hours along the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials.
The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka...4 to 6 feet Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 feet
The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. This prototype graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge
⚠️ RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida through Friday, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of the southeastern United States from southeast Georgia, central to eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina, with local amounts of 10 inches possible through Saturday. These rains may cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.
⚠️ TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight into Thursday morning mainly across central Florida. A few tornadoes are possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night over north Florida and southeast Georgia.
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
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