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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Hurricane Hermine
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Hurricane Hermine
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:36 pm    Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote

INVEST 99L

18Z HWRF at 96 hours. Lets hope that the HWRF is WRONG! That would be a 943 MB Major Hurricane slamming into Tampa Bay. The HWRF is the only model showing this track and intensity.



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PostPosted: Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:54 pm    Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about several hundred miles east-southeast of
Bermuda.

1. An area of low pressure centered near the north coast of Central
Cuba is a little better defined this afternoon, and is producing a
large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Any
development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it
interacts with the terrain of Cuba through Sunday. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive when the
low moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Reports
from the Cuban Meteorological Service indicate that 3 to 5 inches of
rain have fallen in portions of the island this afternoon.
These rains are likely to continue primarily over portions of
eastern and central Cuba tonight and Sunday. Gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall are probably occurring over portions of the
Bahamas, and this activity will spread into parts of southern
Florida and the Florida Keys by Sunday. Interests elsewhere in
Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor
the progress of this disturbance. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate this system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 28, 2016 4:03 am    Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about several hundred miles east-southeast
of Bermuda.

1. A weak area of low pressure located near the north coast of central
Cuba is producing a large but disorganized area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant
development today while this system moves westward through the
Straits of Florida. The low is expected to move into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, where environmental
conditions are forecast to a little more conducive for development.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely
over portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Cuba
through tonight. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will spread
into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys later today.
Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should
continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent






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PostPosted: Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:50 am    Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gaston, located about 600 miles east of Bermuda, and on newly
formed Tropical Depression Eight, located about 400 miles southeast
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has begun to increase near and to
the east of a weak area of low pressure located just south of the
lower Florida Keys. The low is expected to move westward into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, where environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few
days. This system is then expected to move slowly northward and
northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later this week.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely
to continue over portions of the northwestern Bahamas, central and
western Cuba, the Florida Keys and portions of southern Florida
through Monday. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf
of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 28, 2016 2:40 pm    Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote

upgrade coming at 5 pm
"NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Nine at 5 PM EDT."
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 28, 2016 2:51 pm    Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 81.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine
was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 23.7
North, longitude 81.7 West. The depression is moving toward the
west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue
through tonight. On the forecast track, the depression will be
moving away from the Florida Keys and into the Gulf of Mexico
overnight. A turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in
forward speed are expected on Monday followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft was 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 4 inches over the southern half of the Florida
peninsula and the Florida Keys through Wednesday. Isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches are possible over coastal areas of southern
Florida and the Keys. This rainfall may cause flooding and flash
flooding.

WIND: Gusts to tropical storm force are possible in a few squalls
in the lower Florida Keys through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:14 pm    Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 28, 2016 4:04 pm    Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote

NAM at 84 hours.



7-day rainfall forecast.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 28, 2016 6:45 pm    Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote

Tropical storm force winds picked up by a ship near TD9

SHIP
Location: 23.5N 81.2W
08/28/2016 2300 UTC
Winds: NE (40°) at 40.0 kts
Significant Wave Height: 6.6 ft
Dominant Wave period: 99 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.68 in
Air Temperature: 82.0 °F
Dew Point: 77.7 °F
Water Temperature: 83.8 °F
Visibility: 11 nmi
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 29, 2016 3:10 am    Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote


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