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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Hurricane Hermine
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Hurricane Hermine
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Post new topic   Reply to topic    Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather Forum Index -> 2016 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Discussion
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chris
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2016 1:21 pm    Post subject: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote

Area of investigation 99L

Images update:





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PostPosted: Sun Aug 21, 2016 6:10 pm    Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote

Invest 99L needs to be watched closely as the models bring it to the southeast Bahamas where it may find better conditions for development.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:44 pm    Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fiona, located several hundred miles north-northeast of
the Leeward Islands.

1. A tropical wave located about 750 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Nearby
dry air is expected to slow development during the next couple of
days while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph. Environmental conditions could become more conducive
for development late this week when the system is expected to move
near Hispaniola and the southeastern and central Bahamas. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system on Tuesday, if necessary. Interests in the Lesser
Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent




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chris
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:57 pm    Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote

The models seem to agree that 99L could reach close to CAT1.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 22, 2016 2:14 pm    Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote

The 12Z ECMWF is showing a potential serious problem for Florida if the forecast holds.

144 hours


168 hours


192 hours


216 hours


240 hours

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 22, 2016 5:54 pm    Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fiona, located several hundred miles north-northeast of
the Leeward Islands, and has initiated advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Seven, located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

1. A tropical wave located about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Conditions are marginally conducive for some gradual development
during the next few days while the disturbance moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development late this week when the system
is expected to move near Hispaniola and the southeastern and central
Bahamas. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system on Tuesday, if necessary.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 23, 2016 3:56 am    Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fiona, located several hundred miles north-northeast of
the Leeward Islands, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Gaston,
located about 450 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

1. A tropical wave located about 400 miles east-southeast of the
Leeward Islands is producing widespread cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Conditions are marginally conducive for gradual
development while the disturbance moves west-northwestward to
westward at 15 to 20 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for a tropical depression to form by late this
week when the system is forecast to move near Hispaniola and Puerto
Rico, and the southeastern and central Bahamas. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
later this morning. Interests in the central and northern Lesser
Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent






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CONVECTIVEMIKE
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Location: Boynton Beach FL

PostPosted: Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:55 am    Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote



AT THE END OF THE LATEST HWRF...CAT 2 NEAR BRAND BAHAMA AND STILL MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA
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chris
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 23, 2016 9:01 am    Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote

99L is battling dry air to the west.


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:57 am    Post subject: Re: Hurricane Hermine Reply with quote

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Tropical Depression Fiona, located several hundred miles north of
the Leeward Islands, and continues to write advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

1. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles has an elongated and poorly defined circulation. In
addition, satellite imagery indicates that the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Environmental conditions
are only marginally conducive for development during the next couple
of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
near the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles. Large-
scale conditions could become more conducive later this week while
the system moves nears the southeastern and central Bahamas. Another
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this disturbance tomorrow, if necessary. Interests from
the islands of the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas should
continue to monitor the progress of this system. Gusty winds, heavy
rains, and possible flash floods and mud slides could occur over
portions of these areas regardless of tropical cyclone formation.
Please consult products issued by your local meteorological offices
for further details.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
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