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Danielle- Final Advisory
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sat Jun 18, 2016 12:20 pm    Post subject: Re: Danielle- Final Advisory Reply with quote

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure has developed offshore of the west
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today, but the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Some gradual development
of this system is expected during the next couple of days in an
environment of marginal upper-level winds, and a tropical depression
could form while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at
around 10 mph before moving inland over eastern Mexico. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system Sunday afternoon, if necessary. For additional information
on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sat Jun 18, 2016 5:33 pm    Post subject: Re: Danielle- Final Advisory Reply with quote

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large low pressure system located over the eastern Bay of Campeche
about 60 miles north-northeast of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico, is
producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over much of the Yucatan peninsula and adjacent waters
of the Bay of Campeche, southern Gulf of Mexico, and northwestern
Caribbean Sea. The low has been nearly stationary during the past
several hours, but it is forecast to move west-northwestward to
westward at around 10 mph across the Bay of Campeche the next couple
of days before moving inland over eastern Mexico. Satellite-derived
winds and surface observations indicate that the low has developed a
well-defined center of circulation. Although upper-level winds are
only marginally conducive, gradual development of this system is
expected and a tropical depression could form during the next day or
so. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the low Sunday afternoon, if necessary. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 4:06 am    Post subject: Re: Danielle- Final Advisory Reply with quote

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large low pressure system, centered over the central Bay of
Campeche about 300 miles east-southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico, is
producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over much of the Bay of Campeche, southern Gulf of
Mexico, and the Yucatan peninsula. The low is moving westward to
west-northwestward at around 10 mph and is forecast to reach the
coast of eastern Mexico on Monday. Although upper-level winds are
only marginally conducive, a tropical depression is still expected
to form during the next day or so. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon,
if necessary. For additional information on this system, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 4:10 am    Post subject: Re: Danielle- Final Advisory Reply with quote




TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0514 UTC SUN JUN 19 2016

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942016) 20160619 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
160619 0600 160619 1800 160620 0600 160620 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.9N 93.0W 20.4N 95.1W 20.7N 97.0W 21.0N 98.9W
BAMD 19.9N 93.0W 20.8N 94.3W 21.6N 95.7W 21.9N 97.3W
BAMM 19.9N 93.0W 20.5N 94.7W 21.1N 96.4W 21.3N 98.2W
LBAR 19.9N 93.0W 20.7N 94.2W 21.9N 95.6W 23.0N 97.3W
SHIP 25KTS 23KTS 24KTS 25KTS
DSHP 25KTS 23KTS 24KTS 23KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
160621 0600 160622 0600 160623 0600 160624 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.0N 101.0W 21.2N 105.5W 21.5N 109.5W 21.6N 113.7W
BAMD 21.7N 99.2W 20.8N 103.8W 19.7N 108.8W 18.8N 114.1W
BAMM 21.3N 100.3W 21.2N 104.9W 21.1N 109.6W 21.1N 114.5W
LBAR 23.7N 99.3W 24.1N 103.8W 24.1N 108.4W 22.9N 112.8W
SHIP 23KTS 24KTS 28KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.9N LONCUR = 93.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 19.3N LONM12 = 91.7W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 18.9N LONM24 = 90.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 5:56 am    Post subject: Re: Danielle- Final Advisory Reply with quote

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure system located over the central Bay of Campeche
about 200 miles east of Tuxpan, Mexico is producing an area of
showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The low is moving westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph
and is forecast to reach the coast of eastern Mexico on Monday.
Although upper-level winds are only marginally conducive, a tropical
depression is still likely to form later today or on Monday.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the low this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of
whether or not a tropical cyclone develops, areas of heavy rain are
expected over portions of eastern Mexico tonight through Tuesday.
These rains could could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides, especially in areas of high terrain. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Cangialosi
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ccstorms
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Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 6:16 am    Post subject: Re: Danielle- Final Advisory Reply with quote

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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 12:33 pm    Post subject: Re: Danielle- Final Advisory Reply with quote

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area located over
the Bay of Campeche about 175 miles east of Tuxpan, Mexico has
become a little better defined today. The associated showers and
thunderstorms are currently not well organized. However, an
increase in the organization of this activity could lead to the
formation of a tropical cyclone at any time before the low moves
inland over eastern Mexico on Monday. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the
low pressure area. Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone
develops, areas of heavy rain are expected over portions of eastern
Mexico tonight through Tuesday. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of
high terrain. For additional information on this system, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Cangialosi
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 6:21 pm    Post subject: Re: Danielle- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE OF
VERACRUZ MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 94.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 94.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
this motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of
the depression is expected to move inland over eastern Mexico on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is expected, and the depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or early Monday.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area Monday morning, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown

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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 6:23 pm    Post subject: Re: Danielle- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
700 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 95.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 95.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
this motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of
the depression is expected to move inland over eastern Mexico on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is expected, and the depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm before it makes landfall in
Mexico on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area Monday morning, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg

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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 20, 2016 3:21 am    Post subject: Re: Danielle- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
400 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

...RAINS FROM THE DEPRESSION BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 95.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 95.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue over the next day
or so. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is
expected to move inland over eastern Mexico later today or
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast, and the depression could
become a tropical storm before it makes landfall in Mexico later
today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within portions of the warning area later this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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