Posted: Sat Nov 29, 2008 3:32 pm Post subject: Special Coastal Statement
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA RUSKIN FL 332 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2008 ...INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... .A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN GULF WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY...THEN FURTHER INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE COASTLINE.
FLZ039-042-048>050-292100- /O.NEW.KTBW.CF.S.0009.081130T0500Z-081201T0500Z/ LEVY-CITRUS-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-
332 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2008
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO BUILDS SEAS OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WILL CAUSE TIDES TO RUN SOME 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND OVERWASH AS WELL AS MINOR BEACH EROSION AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN ADDITION THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND STRONG UNDERTOWS AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG THE COAST SHOULD MONITOR WATER LEVELS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD FLOODING BE OBSERVED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sat Nov 29, 2008 3:37 pm Post subject: Re: Special Coastal Statement
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 152 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2008
..RAIN ON TAP WITH STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MONDAY) THIA AFTERNOON A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH REACHED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE SE U.S. CONTAINED A FORMING LOW NORTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED OVER THE FL STRAITS. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT TRACKING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE DURING THE NIGHT. ANTICIPATE SOME HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST FROM PINELLAS TO LEVY. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO COVER THIS AND THIS WILL BE UPDATED LATER TODAY.
SUN...THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISS. VALLEY AND PUSHES STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GULF AND TOWARD FL...HELPING TO SUPPORT A LIKELY SQUALL LINE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GULF. THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH THE INCREASING WIND FIELDS WILL PROVIDE A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS.
MON....THE FRONT EXITS THE FA DURING MON. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE EAST GULF AND FL BRINGING SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE DAY. THE THREAT OF ANY STORMS SHOULD BE GONE AND WILL KEEP AS SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR AVERAGE SUN AND PERHAPS INTO MON MON BUT THEN BEGIN TO DROP MON,
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY) DEPARTING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL USHER A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE STATE BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING OUT...AND COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WHILE ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BRING ANOTHER STRETCH OF DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW OVER FLORIDA. ON TUESDAY...MORNING LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AROUND THE NATURE COAST AND MID 40S FOR TAMPA BAY AND VICINITY. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 70 WELL SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA. THE COOL SPELL IS SHORT LIVED AS AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sat Nov 29, 2008 9:47 pm Post subject: Re: Special Coastal Statement
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
814 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2008
...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY...
.UPDATE...UPPER TROF SWINGING THRU THE CENTRAL U.S. AS SFC STORM
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE DEEP SOUTH. SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWING ALL ACTIVITY REMAINS NW OF OUR IMMEDIATE AREA MAINLY
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND DEEP SOUTH. AS
FEATURES MOVE CLOSER TO THE NATURE COAST OVERNIGHT POPS INCREASE
TO 20-30 PERCENT WHILE ELSEWHERE ONLY ABOUT 10 POP OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MOISTURE DEEPENING AS SEEN IN 00Z SOUNDING WITH PWATS
NEARING 1 INCH. THIS FLOW TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. LATEST
GRIDS AND FORECAST ON TRACK.
LATEST CEDAR KEY TIDES NEARLY 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY TO SW FLOW AND STILL EXPECT 2-3 FT ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT SAYS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
EVALUATE IF ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS NEED TO BE ISSUED.
SUNDAYS FORECAST CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG PRE FRONTAL AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING
OVER THE AREA. BEST CHANCE OF STORMS APPEARS TO APPROACH THE NATURE
COAST IN THE MORNING THRU THE BAY AREA AROUND MID DAY INTO AFTERNOON
THEN INTO SW FL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...INCREASING MOISTURE ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY
BRING MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD DAYBREAK. THEN EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
IN THE MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL FLORIDA TERMINALS. WINDS WILL PICK UP
IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY NEAR AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA AT
TPA AND PIE. THEN EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH 30-35 KNOT GUSTS AND IFR VISIBILITIES AND POSSIBLY
CEILINGS AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...5-6MB GRADIENT OVER E GULF THIS EVENING WITH LATEST BUOY
REPORTS SHOWING SEAS OF 5-6 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WITH WINDS 10-15KTS
NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 15 KTS OFFSHORE. GRADIENT TO CONTINUE AND
TIGHTEN WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING OVERNIGHT FOR SCA
CONDITIONS FROM 2AM TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT
HAZARDOUS BOATING AND BEACH CONDITIONS SUN-MON. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sun Nov 30, 2008 9:52 am Post subject: Re: Special Coastal Statement
887 FLUS42 KTBW 300934 HWOTBW
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 434 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2008
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-301530- LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK- MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE- 434 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2008
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. ..STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY
DAY ONE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
..THUNDERSTORM IMPACT
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF WATERS LATER THIS MORNING THEN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALONG WITH HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND MARINE WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. STORMS WILL RACE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH TODAY AND WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES. RESIDENT AND VISITORS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY TODAY. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION...MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
..WIND AND SEA IMPACT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO GALE UP TO FORCE OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE INCREASING WINDS WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS WHICH WILL BRING HAZARDOUS BOATING AND SURF CONDITIONS TO ALL OF THE GULF WATERS INCLUDING TAMPA BAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FISHERMEN AND OTHER SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE TRIPS INTO THE GULF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY.
..COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO BUILDS SEAS OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WILL CAUSE TIDES TO RUN SOME 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL FROM SAINT PETERSBURG BEACH NORTH TO CEDAR KEY WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...OVERWASH...AND MINOR BEACH EROSION AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND STRONG UNDERTOWS AND LARGE BREAKING WAVE ACTION WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG THE COAST SHOULD MONITOR WATER LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD FLOODING BE OBSERVED.
..RIP CURRENT IMPACT
AS THE SEAS BUILD OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY LARGE BREAKING WAVE ACTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AREA BEACHES WITH INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND STRONG UNDERTOWS. RESIDENT AND VISITORS PLANNING TO VISIT THE BEACH SHOULD HEED THE ADVISE OF THE BEACH PATROL. DO NOT SWIM AT UNGUARDED BEACHES.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
..WIND AND SEA IMPACT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO GALE UP TO FORCE OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS ON MONDAY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS QUITE ELEVATED WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 9 TO 11 FEET OFFSHORE. THESE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AND FISHERMEN AND OTHER SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE TRIPS INTO THE GULF UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON TUESDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sun Nov 30, 2008 11:35 am Post subject: Re: Special Coastal Statement
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 956 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2008
UPDATE:
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 939 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL FL AND THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE
COLLIER DESOTO GLADES
HARDEE HENDRY HIGHLANDS
INDIAN RIVER LEE MANATEE
MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE
OKEECHOBEE PALM BEACH SARASOTA
ST. LUCIE _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 1548 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2008 4:03 pm Post subject: Re: Special Coastal Statement
Well that sure was an interesting day of weather which produced a good amount of rain for SWFLA. I wasn't exactly sure when the second wave of showers were going to hit but it appeared they rolled through around 2am last night dumping another .1 inches. Not to bad. We should have pleasant weather for the next several days but it may be a while until we see more precipitation. A lot of times these fronts that roll through are hit and miss and they pass by so quickly its hard to get a shower equivalent to a summer storm. It's better than no rain at all though. For now, we are on a High Surf Adv.
Updated: Mon, 01 Dec 2008 15:01:20
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
.A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND
MOVE THROUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE HIGH WAVES AND ROUGH
SEAS...WHICH WILL PRODUCE ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WHEN
THESE WAVES IMPACT THE BEACHES.
FLZ039-042-048>051-055-060-062-065-021100-
/O.CON.KTBW.SU.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-081202T2100Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-SARASOTA-
CHARLOTTE-LEE-
1235 PM EST MON DEC 1 2008
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY...
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WEST FLORIDA COAST INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...STRONG
UNDERTOWS...AND HAZARDOUS SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET OR LARGER AT AREA
BEACHES.
BEACH GOERS ARE URGED TO HEED LIFEGUARD WARNINGS. IT IS BEST TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THE HAZARDOUS SURF SUBSIDES AND THE
THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS DIMINISHES.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DANGEROUS WATER ACTION IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. THIS INCLUDES ROUGH SURF...LARGE
BREAKING WAVES...RIP CURRENTS...AND STRONG UNDERTOW.
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We should have pleasant weather for the next several days but it may be a while until we see more precipitation. A lot of times these fronts that roll through are hit and miss and they pass by so quickly its hard to get a shower equivalent to a summer storm. It's better than no rain at all though. 
For now, we are on a High Surf Adv.
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