Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 6:32 pm Post subject: MJO Magic
We are seeing convective enhancement of the entire Atlantic Basin by the arrival of the wet phase of the MJO. In a situation like this all convective clusters should be watched for possible development. Invest 97L in the central Atlantic should move NW to N and not be a problem. The only wrinkle I see with 97L is the possibility that it splits into two systems with the larger cluster heading north and the smaller western cluster heading to the west. Next is 98L which could be a huge trouble maker for the Caribbean Islands including Puerto Rico. Torrential rains with flooding and mudslides can be expected. This system could become a named storm in a few days and the global models show it heading wnw initially followed by a turn to the north and northeast taking it across Puerto Rico and out into the Atlantic. The Globals models are also forecasting development in the western Caribbean but they could be 'seeing' 98L and not another system. Lastly, the upper to mid-level LOW off the southeast U.S.coast should be pushed WSW across northern Florida and into the Gulf. This will also have to be watched but development chances are quite low at this time. As Yogi said.. "it ain't over till it's over". _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sun Oct 12, 2008 5:29 pm Post subject: Re: MJO Magic
97L has indeed split with the larger northeast portion now tropical storm NANA and the western portion has also developed a low pressure center and could become the next invest. In the eastern Caribbean 98L has become better organized and could also become a depression at any time. In the western Caribbean convection has increased and a number of models are forecasting development but I still can't tell if they see a separate system or they are keying on 98L as I mentioned in the previous post. The MJO continues to work it's magic. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 12:03 pm Post subject: Re: MJO Magic
capecodder wrote:
Is this the same system that models are developing into a hurricane on the western end of Cuba. Could be a East coast problem?
Yes, some of the global models have it hanging around the western Carib all week followed by a northward movement. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Joined: Jul 17, 2008 Posts: 21 Location: N. Ft. Myers, FL
Posted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 1:03 pm Post subject: MJO
Lou,
Just curious... how long will our area be under the influence of the MJO? Also, will the high pressure that is currently protecting Florida have any influence on the MJO and vice-versa?
Posted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 6:55 pm Post subject: Re: MJO
hoosierhoney wrote:
Lou,
Just curious... how long will our area be under the influence of the MJO? Also, will the high pressure that is currently protecting Florida have any influence on the MJO and vice-versa?
Thanks, ...Honey
Honey, the MJO's influence is winding down as it progresses east. The strong high pressure system over the gulf and Florida is currently blocking any tropical moisture from moving north out of the Caribbean. The season is winding down but not over, and it would not surprise me to see a few more named systems before Nov 30. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
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