Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2008 8:29 am Post subject: Re: IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
343 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2008
...BECOMING BREEZY WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AS IKE MOVES BY TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...CONDITIONS SETTING UP SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEK WHEN GUSTAV MOVED BY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.
IKE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS CUBA TODAY INTO
TUESDAY AND THEN EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES...WRAPPING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
THE STORM WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
LEADING TO AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO
WITH THE INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES WE
TYPICALLY END UP WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS SO EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SETUP
DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE PROXIMITY OF IKE AND HIGH PRESSURE
OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH EASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 MPH EACH DAY WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING OVER INLAND
AREAS EACH NIGHT.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THEN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THANKS TO
MORE CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BE ABOUT AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST AND
MODELS KEEP HURRICANE IKE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF WELL
SOUTHWEST THEN WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA DURING MID TO LATE WEEK.
EXPECT BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO THE STORM ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED BANDS OF RAIN MOVING OVER AS WELL WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND 50 POPS WED NT-THU. WE WILL BE ON THE RIGHT SIDE
OF THE STORM SO SOME OF THE BANDS COULD CONTAIN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO. OVER COASTAL AREAS AND LOCAL BEACHES EXPECT TO HAVE
HIGH SURF...SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT
THREATS TO END THE WEEK AS WELL AS A MINOR INCREASE IN TIDES
SIMILAR TO GUSTAV.
FOR THE WEEKEND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH IKE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT MAINLY NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE NEAR KFMY AND KRSW DURING THE AFTERNOON. GRADIENT BEGINS
TO TIGHTEN FROM IKE TO THE SOUTH WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING GUSTY
15-25 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.MARINE...EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS IKE MOVES
BY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. SPEEDS WILL CLIMB TO AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS AND EVERYWHERE BY WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE WINDS AROUND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE SOUTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY LIKELY BEING NEEDED BY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...BUT AT THIS
TIME LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHEN GUSTAV MOVED BY LAST WEEK WITH TIDES
GENERALLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY 3 FEET
ALONG THE LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTY COASTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE LATE IN THE WEEK AS IKE MOVES FURTHER WEST. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:47 am Post subject: Re: IKE
Ike is about to get wet once again and the banding is already increasing even before the center moves off the coast. Intensity forecast will likely change. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:48 pm Post subject: Re: IKE
Recon showing Ike is a Cat 1............for now.
Storm IKE2: Observed by AF #309
Storm #09 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #09: 12
Date/Time of Recon Report: September 08, 2008 18:03:30 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 21 ° 11 ' N 079 ° 09 ' W (21.18° N 79.15° W )
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700 Millibars: 2809 Meters (Normal: 3011 Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 64 Knots (73.6 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 10 Nautical Miles (11.5 miles) From Center At Bearing 299°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 057 Knots (65.55 MPH) From 062°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 005 Nautical Miles (5.75 Miles) From Center At Bearing 331°
Minimum Pressure: 970 Millibars (28.643 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 10°C (50°F) / 3053 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 12°C (53.6°F) / 3046 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 12°C (53.6°F) / NA°C (NA°F)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CO15-60
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: OPEN E
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700 Millibars
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 2 Nautical Miles
Other Information:
1: Maximum Winds Were OUTBOUND AND Maximum Flight Level WIND 63 KT SE Quadrant at 18:14:30 Z
2: INNER EYEWALL STRUCTURE WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED. OUTER EYEWALL BETTER DEFINED THAN INNER CORE FEATURE _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Joined: Jul 19, 2007 Posts: 315 Location: Tampa FL
Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:54 pm Post subject: Re: IKE
Glad we lucked out but do have to send prayers out to Cuba. At lease we get back to daily t-storms here before the dry season sets in. Been a bit boring weatherwise here.
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