Posted: Sun Sep 07, 2008 5:25 pm Post subject: Re: IKE
chris wrote:
I noticed a high jog to the north/nw. Does this pose a threat to south Florida now? Ike seems to be avoiding Cuba....
Nope, not at all. Just a trichoidal wobble. Intense hurricanes wobble, especially with a double eyewall. Ike is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Inner eyewall is 16 miles in diameter and outer eyewall is 48 miles in diameter. The outer eyewall will continue to contract eventually replacing the inner eyewall. As a result the overall size of Ike will probably increase. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Joined: Dec 28, 2006 Posts: 346 Location: Cape Coral, FL
Posted: Sun Sep 07, 2008 5:50 pm Post subject: Re: IKE
Any chance this deepening low along the northern Gulf coast will draw Ike further north (and possibly a tad east) once it passes west of the Keys? We could be looking at another Mississippi delta hit in that scenario.
Joined: Jul 17, 2008 Posts: 21 Location: N. Ft. Myers, FL
Posted: Sun Sep 07, 2008 6:27 pm Post subject: Re: IKE
ccstorms wrote:
chris wrote:
I noticed a high jog to the north/nw. Does this pose a threat to south Florida now? Ike seems to be avoiding Cuba....
Nope, not at all. Just a trichoidal wobble. Intense hurricanes wobble, especially with a double eyewall. Ike is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Inner eyewall is 16 miles in diameter and outer eyewall is 48 miles in diameter. The outer eyewall will continue to contract eventually replacing the inner eyewall. As a result the overall size of Ike will probably increase.
Lou, another "newbie" question... I noticed in the reports from the weather planes that there is a difference in the temperature within the eye of the storm and outside the eye; 10 degrees C. outside the eye and 15 degrees C. inside. Does the temperature inside the eye reflect the strength of the storm? Does the difference between the inside and outside temperatures tell us anything? What about the double eyewall... is it impacted or caused by the temperature difference. Sorry that was more than one question. Thanks in advance for sharing your knowledge.
These strange new words are getting to me... trichoidal?? I had to look that one up!
Posted: Sun Sep 07, 2008 7:12 pm Post subject: Re: IKE
hoosierhoney wrote:
ccstorms wrote:
chris wrote:
I noticed a high jog to the north/nw. Does this pose a threat to south Florida now? Ike seems to be avoiding Cuba....
Nope, not at all. Just a trichoidal wobble. Intense hurricanes wobble, especially with a double eyewall. Ike is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Inner eyewall is 16 miles in diameter and outer eyewall is 48 miles in diameter. The outer eyewall will continue to contract eventually replacing the inner eyewall. As a result the overall size of Ike will probably increase.
Lou, another "newbie" question... I noticed in the reports from the weather planes that there is a difference in the temperature within the eye of the storm and outside the eye; 10 degrees C. outside the eye and 15 degrees C. inside. Does the temperature inside the eye reflect the strength of the storm? Does the difference between the inside and outside temperatures tell us anything? What about the double eyewall... is it impacted or caused by the temperature difference. Sorry that was more than one question. Thanks in advance for sharing your knowledge.
These strange new words are getting to me... trichoidal?? I had to look that one up!
PS> Here's to Ike staying away from SWF!
Yes, the warmer the core the more intense the storm is. Regarding the double eyewall........it's a common occurrence in major hurricanes. In major hurricanes the eyewall will contract over a period of time causing a new convective band further out from the center to intensify and develop into an intense ring of convection that becomes the new eyewall as the old eyewall dissolves. That is called an eyewall replacement cycle. There are still quite a bit of unknowns regarding the ERC such as when it will occur and how long the process may take. Most of the time an ERC will cause some temporary weakening in the storm until the process is completed. Once completed the storm will begin to intensify once more. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sun Sep 07, 2008 8:00 pm Post subject: Re: IKE
The 18Z GFS, GFDL, and HWRF, all shifted east to Louisiana. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Joined: Dec 28, 2006 Posts: 346 Location: Cape Coral, FL
Posted: Sun Sep 07, 2008 9:07 pm Post subject: Re: IKE
One more question: Is there any possibility that the interaction with the very high terrain solely on the south side of the storm could nudge the COC slightly further north? I ask this because a 50-mile differencial on this track obviously makes a huge difference in the retention of strength and that holds implications for us here in SWFL.
Joined: Jun 20, 2005 Posts: 525 Location: Cape Coral, Fl.
Posted: Sun Sep 07, 2008 9:55 pm Post subject: Re: IKE
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Holg...cation.png
All of Holguin Providence is south of 21 degree north so Ike at 21.1N would pass to the North of Holguin. Holguin is a forested area, 2nd in populalation to Havanna. The next area to the west is Las Tunas.
http://www.maplandia.com/cuba/las-tunas/
Most of this providence is slightly below 21 degree north. Mostly cattle ranging area. Next comes Camaguay. This is a low lying mango and marshy area with many cays. Fidel's favorite fishing area!. As Ike travels along the north Cuba coast , the influence of land drops off.
Having said all that, Ike's path still rides on the strength of the High to it's North and how far and for how long it will continue to extend it's influence on Ike. With Ike's steady movement to the west and the first signs of a more NW path, I would say that the High has lost it's grip on Ike and a course ( as starting to show up on the models ) of a more NWerly course has begun.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
Good view from the NW Atlantic satellite showing Hanna moving out into the north Atlantic and the High losing it's grip on Ike.
Now the forecast is for the high to continue to build back to the west but I think it (the high ) is running out of influence on Ike and other weather players are about to take over.
Here comes Ike!
http://www.capeweather.com/florida-south-satellite.html
Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2008 5:53 am Post subject: Re: IKE
alorfi wrote:
One more question: Is there any possibility that the interaction with the very high terrain solely on the south side of the storm could nudge the COC slightly further north? I ask this because a 50-mile differencial on this track obviously makes a huge difference in the retention of strength and that holds implications for us here in SWFL.
Any interaction with land can cause a temporary track change. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
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Two days ago, all of Florida was "in the cone". Me thinks we'll be a seeing more of this shift to the east. Aarrghhh!
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