See that trough/upper feature to the northwest of Josephine? (in your WV link) It just rammed Josephine with a mid-level shear/dry air blast. Those outflow boundaries running out from the west side of Jo mean the thunderstorms have collapsed.....in fact I think the whole central core of Josephine may have collapsed. Jo may not survive and that's good. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
I just love it when they get beat up like that. Now if we can just put out a contract on Ike............ _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR HAVE REALLY WORKED A NUMBER ON
JOSEPHINE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. AFTER LOOKING RATHER
IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS
SINCE RAPIDLY DEGRADED. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THERE IS NOW A
NOTICEABLE LACK OF ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES BUT
THIS COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS GIVEN JOSEPHINE'S CURRENT APPEARANCE.
IN TERMS OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE ENVIRONMENT GETS MORE
HOSTILE FROM HERE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
JOSEPHINE WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND SOME
MODELS EVEN SUGGEST THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE. ADDITIONALLY...SSTS
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH ABOUT 3 DAYS.
THE ENVIRONMENT DOES BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5. HOWEVER...IT IS UNCLEAR WHAT WILL
BE LEFT OF JOSEPHINE BY THAT TIME. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CALLS FOR
GRADUAL WEAKENING.
WITH JOSEPHINE'S FUTURE VERTICAL DEPTH NOW IN QUESTION...THE
STEERING IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN. IF THE CYCLONE CANNOT GENERATE
NEW CONVECTION...IT COULD BE STEERED MORE BY THE SHALLOW CURRENTS
AND MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE GFS.
CONVERSELY...IF THE CYCLONE CAN REGENERATE CONVECTION AND REMAIN A
DEEP SYSTEM...IT WOULD TEND TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE
NOGAPS AND GFDL MODELS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD
HAVE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION RESULTING IN A STAIR-STEPPED
TRACK. GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION AND ANTICIPATED
STRONG SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS RESULTING
IN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT AND SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sun Sep 07, 2008 8:15 am Post subject: Re: JOSEPHINE / 91L
The NHC says "1. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE...LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION." _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:08 am Post subject: Re: JOSEPHINE / 91L
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1255 UTC SUN SEP 7 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE JOSEPHINE (AL102008) 20080907 1200 UTC
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