Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 11:01 am Post subject: Re: DOLLY
Dolly now a Cat 2. (edit: to remove the word "strong". A strong Cat 2 would be 110 MPH. Cat 3 begins at 115 MPH)
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1000 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...DOLLY VERY NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WITH 100 MPH WINDS...EYE SHOULD
CROSS THE COAST IN A FEW HOURS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PORT
O'CONNOR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF
HURRICANE DOLLY WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER IN A FEW HOURS. PERSONS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUTDOORS
DURING THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE BECAUSE WINDS WILL SOON
INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. PORT ISABEL AIRPORT JUST MEASURED 54 MPH...87 KM/HR
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH...113 KM/HR. AN UNOFFICIAL
OBSERVER JUST EAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
65 MPH...105 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 119 MPH...192 KM/HR.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...26.0 N...97.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1200 PM CDT AND 200 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.
ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DOLLY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
100 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
AT 1 PM CDT THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST...MAKING LANDFALL ON SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND...ABOUT 35 MILES...60 KM...NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS OR 40 MILES...65 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF RAYMONDVILLE.
The latest satellite picture of Dolly shows that it's structure is still very well defined even though it's been on shore for a number of hours. This shows the difference between a landfalling storm that was intensifying as opposed to one that was weakening. The slow movement coupled with Dolly still being fed by feeders over the Gulf will mean that Dolly will take quite some time to spin down and the results will be continued catastrophic flooding.
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 9:23 am Post subject: Re: DOLLY
PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 20 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL042008
0400 AM CDT FRIDAY JULY 25 2008
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
AT 0400 AM CDT...0900 UTC..THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED
NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND
NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST...APPROXIMATELY
100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MARFA TEXAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1004 MB...OR 29.65 INCHES.
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES...
...TEXAS...
SAN MANUEL......................12.00
BROWNSVILLE 4.6 NNW..............8.62
MCALLEN..........................8.51
HARLINGEN........................5.77
CORPUS CHRISTI...................5.39
MISSION 1.9 ENE..................5.20
KINGSVILLE 8.2 SE................5.19
ODEM.............................4.50
RANDOLPH AFB.....................2.38
KELLY AFB........................2.31
TERREL COUNTY AIRPORT............0.77
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER DURING FRIDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.
REPEATING THE 0400 AM CDT POSITION...28.6 NORTH...103.6
WEST...MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 17
MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...20 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1004 MB.
PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 21 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL042008
1000 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2008
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BIG
BEND...
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING INLAND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
BREWSTER...PRESIDIO...JEFF DAVIS...PECOS...AND TERRELL COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR
THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND NEAR
LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST OR 25 MILES...40 KM
SOUTH OF PRESIDIO TEXAS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
BASED UPON DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA AND UPPER AIR DATA FROM
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH...50
KM/HR...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED...WITH DOLLY EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH
LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES...
...TEXAS...
SAN MANUEL......................12.00
RANCHO VIEJO 3 SE................9.67
BROWNSVILLE 4.6 NNW..............8.62
MCALLEN 3 NW.....................8.59
LA JOYA 11 N.....................7.17
CORPUS CHRISTI 4 W...............6.83
FLOUR BLUFF 1.6 SW...............6.46
HILSHIRE VILLAGE 1 SE............6.00
KINGSVILLE 6.5 SSE...............5.80
HARLINGEN........................5.77
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
GENERALLY TOWARDS THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...29.2 NORTH...104.4
WEST...MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
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