Posted: Mon May 28, 2012 1:28 pm Post subject: Re: 2012 Models, Maps, Waves, Etc.
thoughts ? GFS is sniffing at the mess south of Cuba for next weekened .
Another disturbance coming out of the western Carib would not surprise me at all Mike. The near permanent Monsoon trough in the SW Carib is a good moisture source that has been tapped twice already this month. The NAM has been on again off again with development for the last three days and today's 12Z NAM is showing development once again. If something did develop my biggest concern would be it's name. Completely unpredictable.
Posted: Mon May 28, 2012 5:30 pm Post subject: Re: 2012 Models, Maps, Waves, Etc.
What say you on the wind shear Lou Does not look as hostile as it was on satellite shots when eventual Beryl was struggling in the same area.
There is still quite a bit of shear but not quite as bad a last week. The 18Z GFS wants to bring a large slug of moisture north from the Carib but it's not showing development. The 18Z NAM does the same thing and does show development. The GFS sees a more hostile environment, the NAM doesn't. Nothing from the 12Z Euro, CMC, or NOGAPS. The NAM is alone. _________________ LOU
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 3127 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Mon May 28, 2012 6:05 pm Post subject: Re: 2012 Models, Maps, Waves, Etc.
Hopefully that name stays and never retires. If it retires, more than likely that would not be a good. I remember the last time Chris formed and it died in the mountains of Cuba. Maybe a repeat? Let's hope! _________________ Chris
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