Convective Season onset ???

CONVECTIVEMIKE · Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2012 3:25 pm Post subject: Convective Season onset ???

Well it looks like the trigger of an early convective season kickoff is about to roll through. Watching a good influx of moisture working its way Nw ward toward the Penninsula this weekend. Indications are showing that every day next week will have activity after this trough moves out.

chris · Posted: Sat Apr 28, 2012 3:17 pm Post subject: Re: Convective Season onset ???

The storms fired up quite nicely today Mike! Very Happy

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CONVECTIVEMIKE · Posted: Sat Apr 28, 2012 6:39 pm Post subject: Re: Convective Season onset ???

had 2 rounds overnight 1130-about 1 am and another that woke me up at 4 am this morning after that nothing . im hearing there may be a hint of a tropical system forming out of the mess down in the bahamas over to cuba.

ccstorms · Posted: Sun Apr 29, 2012 4:26 am Post subject: Re: Convective Season onset ???

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
409 AM EDT SUN APR 29 2012

...FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

...PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MIDWEEK..

.DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EXTRA-TROPICAL/HYBRID LOOKING
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE UP TO 2-2.2 INCHES ALONG THE EAST COAST...WHICH IS ABOVE
THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR OR EVEN EXCEEDING RECORD VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS A VERY INTERESTING SETUP FOR VERY HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH BRINGING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND THEN
CONVERGING ON SOUTH FLORIDA...20-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS CREATING COASTAL CONVERGENCE (ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT)...MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING HIGH PWATS ABOVE 99TH PERCENTILE AND SKINNY
CAPE...AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. ALL OF THESE ADD UP TO PERFECT INGREDIENTS FOR
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST
FROM CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS DEVELOPING A
SURFACE LOW TODAY JUST NORTH OF CUBA OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WITH
AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE GFS BOMBS PRECIP OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIP AREAL AVERAGES OF 5-10 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FROM CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO MIAMI DADE
COUNTY...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS SOUTHEAST AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THE GFS MAY BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...BUT REGARDLESS...THE MODEL IS STILL SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVY RAIN. EVEN THE ECMWF WHICH HAS NOT
HANDLED THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES WELL HAS COME AROUND MORE TOWARDS
THE GFS AND SHOWS 4-6 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE COASTLINE THROUGH
THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. WITH THE SETUP MENTIONED ABOVE...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF A COUPLE LOCATIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST RECEIVED
8-10 INCHES OF RAIN BY MIDWEEK...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS ALONG
THE EAST COAST SEEING 3-6 INCHES OF RAINFALL. WITH ALL THAT
SAID...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF MIAMI DADE
COUNTY...COASTAL AND METRO BROWARD AND COASTAL AND METRO PALM
BEACH COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WAS HESITANT AT THIS POINT TO
ADD PALM BEACH COUNTY TO THE WATCH...BUT THE PALM BEACH COUNTY
COAST RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY...AND THE HEAVY RAIN
COULD SET UP FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY
SOUTHWARD...SO ADDED THEM TO THE FLOOD WATCH AS WELL.

SO FOR TODAY...A SHARP INVERTED TROUGH OR POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW/WITH
INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM CUBA TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN CUBA TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ALREADY AND INTO THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. THE HRRR...WHICH HAS BEEN DOING A PRETTY DECENT
JOB OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SHOWS THIS AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN
MOVING INTO THE REGION AROUND 13Z AND THEN MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL. SO BUMPED
UP POPS TO 80-100 PERCENT ACROSS BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE...WITH
LESSER CHANCES CONTINUING TO THE NORTHWEST. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS AT 850MB
INCREASING TO 35-45 KNOTS...SO GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE DEFINITELY A
POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OUT WEST MAY GET INTO THE 80S
WITH ANY SUNSHINE.

THE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS HIGH PRESSURE GETS REINFORCED OFF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH...HIGH PWATS OF 2+
INCHES...LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW
OVERHEAD...AND THE ADDITION OF COASTAL CONVERGENCE TONIGHT...VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST COAST...MAINLY FROM
BROWARD COUNTY SOUTHWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
OVER THE REGION...WITH THE SHARP INVERTED TROUGH/LOW MOVING INTO THE
GULF. SO THE STREAM OF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE EAST COAST COUNTIES.

AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT...STRONG COASTAL
CONVERGENCE MAY SET UP AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THAT TIME PERIOD
AS THE HIGH MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD AT THIS POINT...BUT THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WITH AT LEAST
CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME
IN LINE WITH GFS...WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT HAD A DRY FORECAST AFTER
MONDAY. SO INCREASED POPS THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY ACROSS AT LEAST THE
EAST COAST AREAS.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Sun Apr 29, 2012 4:43 am Post subject: Re: Convective Season onset ???

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
517 AM EDT SUN APR 29 2012

FLZ068-072>074-168-172>174-300000-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.A.0002.120429T0917Z-120501T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
METRO PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
517 AM EDT SUN APR 29 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...COASTAL BROWARD...COASTAL MIAMI DADE...
COASTAL PALM BEACH...FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE...INLAND MIAMI
DADE...METRO BROWARD...METRO MIAMI DADE AND METRO PALM BEACH.

* THROUGH MONDAY EVENING

* DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY ADVANCES
ACROSS THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WATCH AREA WILL
RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, PERHAPS UP TO 8 INCHES IN A FEW LOCALES. AT THIS
TIME, IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO FALL OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES, INCLUDING
THE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html