Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:56 am Post subject: Re: DOLLY
SW46TER wrote:
The continued lack of convection.... weaker state of this system is causing it to go further South than I originally anticipated. Thus it is going below the islands which does not bode well for development in July as lower pressures over S. America and a persistent easterly flow usually retard development. Thus, if this system is to become a storm it will be off the Yucatan.....a western Gulf threat more than Florida
The more southerly track actually helped it enter an area of greater low level convergence and it can tap moisture from the ITCZ. This is better for 94L in the short term. Recon is going in. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 10:04 am Post subject: Re: DOLLY
Latest fix.
12.2N, 56.5W, wind 30 kts, pressure 1009 MB. Also has Dvorak rating of 2.5 which is quite high for a system not yet classified as a TC. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 11:04 am Post subject: Re: DOLLY
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1045 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
HAS BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS FORMED. EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
600 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST COMPLETED
ITS MISSION IN THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION...
DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM LACKS A SINGLE WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...THE SYSTEM IS NOT BEING CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.
REGARDLESS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD AT 20-25 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
I think this should have already been classified but it may not make a difference for too long anyway. It will have the fight of it's life to sustain itself and not get sucked into S. America on the apparent track it will be taking this time of year. _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Could this system spell Felix or Dean like last year or is that just out of the question? Felix the Cat5. _________________ Chris
Site Administrator
Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather
I am really surprised by the degree of model consensus on the projected track. I thought this would pose more concern for our area as it grew and bent in a more NW direction once past Hispaniola.
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 7:56 am Post subject: Re: DOLLY
chris wrote:
Could this system spell Felix or Dean like last year or is that just out of the question? Felix the Cat5.
Do you mean could 94L become a Cat 5? Answer, no chance. If you mean could 94L be an omen of a future system becoming a Cat 5 in the Caribbean this season? Answer, probably not. Cat 5's are very very rare in spite of the fact that a number of them have developed in the last few years. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
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