Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 4:06 am Post subject: ERNESTO- Final Advisory Issued
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 4:08 am Post subject: Re: ERNESTO- Final Advisory Issued
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0634 UTC MON JUL 30 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 8:53 am Post subject: Re: ERNESTO- Final Advisory Issued
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 UTC MON JUL 30 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Joined: May 09, 2006 Posts: 257 Location: Bonita Springs Fl.
Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 10:22 am Post subject: Re: ERNESTO- Final Advisory Issued
Looks like they raised the winds to borderline hurricane strength before the islands Could be the first CV classic and unfortunately not looking like a "fish" storm at this point . Any negative factors ahead of this one Lou
Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 1:45 pm Post subject: Re: ERNESTO- Final Advisory Issued
Wthrwatcher wrote:
Looks like they raised the winds to borderline hurricane strength before the islands Could be the first CV classic and unfortunately not looking like a "fish" storm at this point . Any negative factors ahead of this one Lou
It will pulse up and down convection wise for the next few days. SST's in that area are ok but not ideal. Wind shear is not a problem and SAL is being held back due to the large moisture envelope of 99L. Once 99L passes 50W I expect it to develop at a faster pace as the SST's increase quite a bit once it passes that Meridien. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 5:57 pm Post subject: Re: ERNESTO- Final Advisory Issued
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1936 UTC MON JUL 30 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2012 12:38 pm Post subject: Re: ERNESTO- Final Advisory Issued
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EMBEDDED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
NEARLY MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM HISPANIOLA
EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
SPREAD OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Looks like they raised the winds to borderline hurricane strength before the islands 
Could be the first CV classic and unfortunately not looking like a "fish" storm at this point . Any negative factors ahead of this one Lou 
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