FXUS62 KTBW 210806
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
306 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018
...Near Record High Temperatures Possible Today...
.SHORT TERM (Today - Thursday)...
Models remain in good agreement with synoptic scale features
during the short term period so a blend will be used.
Little overall changes in the forecast are expected through
the period. A large and deep mid and upper level trough
over the western and central U.S. will continue to maintain
a very strong (594-595DM) upper level ridge over the western
Atlantic and Florida through Thursday. Large scale
subsidence and limited moisture will continue to support
warm and rain free conditions across the entire forecast
area through the period with just some patchy fog expected
during the late night and early morning hours, with the best
chances across the Nature Coast.
Temperatures will continue to run some 10 to 15 degrees
above normal for this time of the year and some near
record high temperatures will again be possible today.
See the climate section below for some record high
temperatures for today. High temperatures today will again
soar into the lower 80s along the immediate Gulf coast, with
mid to upper 80 degree readings expected over inland areas.
Lows tonight will remain quite mild and will range from the
lower 60s across the Nature Coast to the mid and upper 60s
central and south. Highs on Thursday will again climb into
the lower 80s along the coast, and mid to upper 80s inland
during the afternoon.
.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Thursday Night - Tuesday)...
Broad upper level troughing resides over the western and
much of the central states through the period. A low
initially embedded within this troughing...above the Great
Basin...ejects out over the central plains Fri. This low
treks across the Great Lakes during the weekend and
continues through Quebec Mon and Tue. Upper ridging centered
off the southeast U.S. coast sprawls across the eastern
seaboard and the Gulf region through the end of the week. In
response to the upper low tracking across the U.S. and
Canada the ridging flattens over the weekend then slips
southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico for early next week.
At the surface a reflection of the upper low trails a cold
front across the central then eastern states...where it
stalls Mon along the Gulf coast and through north FL then
dissipates Tue. High pressure continues near Bermuda through
the weekend with a westward extending ridge axis that drops
from the Gulf coast states into Fl and the Gulf of Mexico.
The center of the high settles south of of Latitude 30 early
next week while it ridges west.
The upper ridge provides continued warm and somewhat stable
conditions. Temperatures run above normal...in the 5 to 10
degree range. The surface ridge gradually drops down across
the area with a relaxed gradient...resulting in light flow
and afternoon seas breezes. A modest increase in moisture
along with sea breeze boundaries and the front...staying
north of the area...providing some lift which will allow
isolated to scattered showers to form.
Some brief IFR cigs may impact the terminals between 09-12Z
this morning, otherwise VFR will prevail during the next
24 hours. East-southeast winds in the 7 to 10 knot range
early this morning will increase to 10 to 12 knots after
15Z with a few higher gusts possible after 18Z. East
southeast winds will diminish to 5 to 7 knots after 02Z
Strong surface high pressure from the western Atlantic
extending west across the southeastern states and northern
Gulf coast will maintain southeast winds in the 10 to 15
knot range across the Gulf waters today and tonight. The
pressure gradient associated with the high will remain tight
enough to keep any sea breeze component just offshore
today, but as the high weakens on Thursday better chances
for the sea breeze component will increase. During Friday
and into the upcoming weekend lighter southeast winds are
expected as the high weakens further and sinks south to lie
east to west across the north-central peninsula with an
onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast each
afternoon. Winds and seas should remain below 15 knots and
5 feet through the period with no headlines expected at this
Adequate low level moisture will keep humidity values above
critical levels through the end of the week with no red
flag conditions expected. Breezy southeast transport winds
will result in elevated dispersion indices today and again
on Thursday. Some patchy fog will be possible during the
late night and early morning hours the next few days, with
the best chances across the fog prone locations of the
Here are some record high temperatures for today and the
Brooksville 85 1997
Tampa 87 1961
Lakeland 89 1989
ST Petersburg 86 1961
Sarasota 87 1997
Fort Myers 91 1944
Here are some record high minimum temperatures for today and
the year set.
Tampa 69 2014
Lakeland 68 1989
ST Petersburg 68 1989
Sarasota 67 1975
Fort Myers 70 2014
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 86 67 85 67 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 87 66 86 66 / 0 0 10 10
GIF 87 65 86 65 / 0 0 10 10
SRQ 86 66 84 65 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 87 64 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 85 67 83 68 / 0 0 0 0
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE...57/McMichael
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/Rude
NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion