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Lee County Forecast
Today

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. East southeast wind 5 to 9 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.
Mostly Sunny
Tonight

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. South southeast wind around 5 mph.
Partly Cloudy
Hi 70 °FLo 57 °F
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 Southwest Florida Weather Forecast Discussion - Tampa Bay National Weather Service



000
FXUS62 KTBW 141132
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
632 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail during the next 24 hours. Clear skies early
this morning will give way to scattered to broken cigs
around 5000 feet across the northern terminals after 12Z and
then across the southern ones after 17Z as low level
moisture increases across the area, with some additional
mid/high clouds around 10,000 feet streaming in from the
Gulf. Light and variable winds this morning will become
southwest and increase to 7 to 10 knots after 15Z then
diminish to around 5 knots or less after 02Z tonight.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 249 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today - Friday)...
Surface high pressure over the southern peninsula early
this morning is supporting mainly clear skies and light to
calm winds across the forecast area. Good radiational
cooling has allowed temperatures to drop into the lower
and middle 40s across most of the area, with some upper
30s being observed across Highlands and portions of Polk
counties under the high, and with temp/dew point spreads now
3 degree or less along with calm winds some patchy frost
formation will be possible prior to sunrise especially
across southeast Highlands county where the coolest
temperatures will reside, so will include a mention of in
the zones in these locations.

After a cool start temperatures should rebound fairly quickly
as a southwest wind flow develops across the region in response
to the surface high slowly shifting east into the western
Atlantic during the day. The southwest flow will allow the
cool and very dry airmass to modify with an increase in
moisture off the Gulf supporting an increase in clouds
during the day. Temperatures today will be milder than
yesterday given the southwest flow with highs climbing into
the lower 70s during the afternoon.

Tonight dry and milder weather is expected as zonal flow
aloft remains in place and surface high pressure from the
western Atlantic extending west across the southern peninsula
remains in control. A continued slow increase in low level
moisture combined with light to calm winds will likely lead
to some patchy fog development over inland locations after
midnight and will introduce into the grids and zones.
Temperatures will be milder than this morning with lows
generally in the 50s which is close to normal for this time
of the year.

On Friday little overall change is expected. A weakening
short wave trough approaching the lower Mississippi valley
will push a weak cold front south toward the forecast area
during the day. This boundary combined with a continued
slow increase in low level moisture may help to generate a
few showers (Pops 20 percent) across central and northern
locations during the afternoon, otherwise dry weather with
seasonal level temperatures can be expected with temperatures
climbing into the lower to mid 70s during the afternoon.

MID TERM/LONG TERM (Friday night through next Wednesday)...
For the weekend: Aloft - A low over northwest Mexico lifts
up to the central plains as it opens into a trough while a
short wave trough tracks across the Deep South and dampens
out off the southeast U.S. coast. An Atlantic ridge builds
across FL and into the Gulf of Mexico. A second short wave
trough moves into the central Gulf coast on Sun. Surface - A
weak cold front dissipates across the state early in the
period as high pressure moves northeastward...from the
southern plains to the Mid-Atlantic coastal waters. For the
most part the weekend stays dry. The front dissipates with
limited moisture and while the second short wave trough will
produce some precipitation most of this will be in north
FL...only a few showers could spread into the northern
Nature Coast Sun afternoon. Temperatures will run slightly
above normal...with readings Sun a degree or two higher than
Sat.

Mon-Wed: Aloft - The central plains trough shifts to the
eastern states and deepens with the Gulf ridge getting
shunted south of FL. Surface - The high pressure off the
Mid-Atlantic coast slides out over the open
Atlantic...initially ridging back across FL to the Gulf but
dropping south as the upper troughing pushes a cold front
into the region. The lower to mid level flow becomes
southerly and southwesterly with increasing moisture for the
northern half of the state...resulting a slight chance to a
chance of showers generally around and north of Tampa
Bay...and enhanced somewhat by the approaching front. The
temperatures continue to run above normal although the
clouds and rainfall with the front will lower highs Wed down
a bit compared to earlier in the week.

AVIATION...
VFR will prevail during the next 24 hours. Clear skies early
this morning will give way to scattered to broken cigs aoa
050 across the northern terminals after 12Z and then across
the southern ones after 17Z as low level moisture increases
across the area, with some additional mid/high clouds aoa
100 streaming in from the Gulf. Light and variable winds
this morning will become southwest and increase to 7 to 10
knots after 15Z then diminish to around 5 knots or less
after 02Z tonight.

MARINE...
High pressure over the southern peninsula this morning will
shift slowly east into the Atlantic today and will then
extend back to west across the southern peninsula through
Friday night with southwest to west winds around 10 knots
along with slight seas expected over the Gulf waters through
the period. During the upcoming weekend a weak cool front
will sink south into the north central waters where it will
wash out as surface high pressure to the north bridges
across it with a northeast to easterly wind flow developing
over the waters through Saturday night. On Sunday and
continuing into Monday winds will veer to the southeast with
a slight uptick in speeds expected as the gradient tightens
some between high pressure offshore the mid Atlantic coast
and developing low pressure over the lower Mississippi
valley. Wind and seas should remain below 15 knots and 5
feet through the period with no headlines expected.

FIRE WEATHER...
Increasing low level moisture will keep humidity values
above critical levels through the end of the week and into
the upcoming weekend with no fire weather issues expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  72  60  74  58 /  10  10  20   0
FMY  72  55  75  58 /   0   0  10   0
GIF  72  54  75  56 /   0  10  20  10
SRQ  72  59  74  58 /  10  10  20   0
BKV  72  55  74  51 /  10  10  20  10
SPG  71  62  73  59 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...74/Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion


Discussion terminology definitions can be found here

  
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