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NOAA Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS62 KTBW 200705
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
305 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES OVER THE FAR
EAST AND SE COUNTIES AND WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM. ATTM FAY APPEARS TO
OVER MLB WITH MOST OF THE RAIN ALONG THE EAST FL COAST. ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED BANDS ARE ROTATING SOUTHWARD OVER PARTS OF THE CWA.

WITH FAY EXPECTED TO SLIDE OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THEN TRACK
BACK WEST SOME WHERE OVER NORTHERN FL WILL KEEP GENERALLY HIGH
CLOUD COVERAGE AND POPS IN PLACE. THIS WILL SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPS
TO BELOW NORMAL AND ALLOW THE MINS TO RUN ABOVE.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH FAY MOVING BACK WEST THERE
ARE SOME ISSUES IN TIMING AND LOCATION. THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY
REFLECTS THIS BY COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTH HALF OF FL. RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-TUE)...OFFICIAL NHC TRACK OF FAY TO HAVE
CENTER OVER N FL FRI NIGHT SLOWLY MOVING WNW INTO THE FL PANHANDLE
SAT NT THEN S AL SUN BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY ERROR CONE EXTENDS INTO
THE N GULF TO THE DEEP SOUTH. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH MODERATE TO STRONG S-SE FLOW INTO FAY EXPECTED TO
KEEP CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH BEST
CHANCES OVER NORTHERN AREA CLOSEST TO SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL PROGS CONTINUE TO KEEP REMNANTS OF FAY SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION
TO START NEXT WEEK FOR MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION AS FLOW BECOMES
SWERLY. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VRF CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS AS TS FAY...MAIN
CLOUD SHIELD AND RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NE AWAY FROM
AREA. BUT STILL MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL BAND BREAK AWAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OR
VICINITY SHOWER WITH MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING THEN VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE SOME GUSTY WINDS PERSIST THRU THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...STILL GUSTY OFFSHORE AND OVER TAMPA BAY BUT EXPECT THIS TO
DROP SOME AND WILL LET THE SCA RUN OUT AT 4 AM AND SHIFT TO SCEC
UNTIL 10 AM. WINDS SHOULD THEN STAY BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS UNTIL
LATE THU OR EARLY FRI WHEN FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK WEST SOME
WHERE OVER NORTHERN FL AND INCREASE WINDS INTO THE 20KT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO LOW RH CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 86 77 86 76 / 60 40 50 30
FMY 87 76 86 76 / 60 40 50 30
GIF 88 75 86 75 / 70 60 60 30
SRQ 86 77 85 77 / 60 40 50 30
BKV 87 74 86 74 / 60 40 50 30
SPG 85 80 84 80 / 60 40 50 30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-LEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR HIGHLANDS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 AM UNTIL 10 AM EDT
THIS MORNING FOR BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 60 NM AND
TAMPA BAY WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 60 NM AND TAMPA BAY
WATERS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE...RKR
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RD

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